Grade the Draft

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Tactical unit
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Re: Grade the Draft

Post by Tactical unit »

I grade it an A-

The Wolves traded and moved around the board displaying a mastery of evaluation that would be expected from a highly paid, incentive laden GM. Moving back displayed confidence in evaluation of the current board and talent pool and quickly trading up when a target player didn't cost too much to secure was the type of aggressive and decisive move that a well prepared GM makes. They were fluid, they spent lower value future 2nds to make moves and replenished the picks for future ammo to make similar tactical movements up and down future draft boards.

Kessler - I think he will be looked back on as a really strong value pick at #22. I think there's more upside than people are giving credit for, imagine developing a shot, or maybe an easier task would be to develop his size into a real problem down low, and his easiest path to upside is becoming elite at what he already excels in, which is becoming a defensive big that makes a difference.

Moore - What he could potentially turn into, is that perfect supporting cast type of player that can play solid defense, hit shots and create for others. He could provide lineup flexibility and help carry the load in a taller lineup or play off the ball. Well prepared draft team realized how the draft board was falling and had the sense to be aggressive and go get the player they thought could really develop and fit well with the core.

Minott - I would have loved for MN to get EJ Lidell which seemed possible, but Minott as the pick seems like the right type of upside player to target for development because its hard to find athletic guys with strong defensive potential this late in the draft.

Spagnolo - Euro stash with some flare to his game, MN was feeling the roster crunch so this Euro stash was perfect value for MN. I could see him turning into a flip asset with more juice and you never know when one of these stash players could hit big.

Front Office - Appeared to be well prepared, fluid, decisive, and aggressive. It felt like they got target players at low cost and I see both upside and team fit that could prove key to future success. As active as the front office was with moving picks around, I think it shows how little interest there must have been in players on the roster (DLO, Beasley, V8, Naz, Nowell, Bolmaro).
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Lipoli390
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Re: Grade the Draft

Post by Lipoli390 »

Good analysis, TU. My initial knee-jerk was a B-. But a more thorough and dispassionate analysis has led me to revise my grade up to a B+. In his post-draft interview with Alan Horton, Finch said the Wolves were looking for thought, two-way players. There's reason to believe all three picks are tough and they all clearly excel on the defensive side of the ball. It remains to be seen how good Kessler and Minott will be on the offensive side. But emphasizing defense in this draft made sense given the offensive prowess of our two best players, KAT and Ant. Connelly said they were focused on drafting players with character - players who love basketball. After digging into all three players since the draft, I can see how Kessler, Moore and Minott check that box.

Bottom line is that Connelly's front office had a plan for the players they wanted and they skillfully executed that plan with relatively minor, but meaningful, deals. They played it relatively safe in the 1st round selecting two high-floor players who also have significant upside and who fit well with the current team by adding skills the team needs. Then Connelly took a big cut in the 2nd round, taking Minott - a prospect with a really high ceiling but also the ability to defend well very early in his career. I thought EJ Liddell was a steal at 41 and I still do unless we hear something new about why he dropped. Nevertheless, I think Connelly made the right move going the the high-upside, athletic Minott after playing it a bit safer in the 1st round. And the Wolves ended up adding the Knicks 2023 2nd-round pick, which is likely to be a pretty high pick.

I needed some time to reflect to fully recognize the smart thinking that Connelly's team put into this draft. We're all used to some pretty bad front offices just winging it on draft day or playing checkers while other front offices play chess. But the current Wolves front office guys, led by Connelly, didn't do that. They adjusted and adapted as events unfolded, skillfully executing a rational plan to improve the team offer the long haul as Ant and McDaniels develop and as KAT enters the prime of his career and begins a super-max long-term deal. I'm still keeping the Wolves grade at B+. Part of that is my resistance to modern grade inflation. :). But that grade could certainly go up by the end of next season with hindsight.
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Monster
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Re: Grade the Draft

Post by Monster »

Camden wrote:I'll echo what monster and [s]Tim[/s], err, Doug, discussed above. I also thought Tim Connelly and the front office navigated the draft well in terms of deal-making and preparation. Those trades don't typically come together out of thin air or while you're on the clock. Those teams likely had conversations prior to draft night about moving around and what would be an agreeable deal for both sides in the event that their boards shook a particular way. Sachin Gupta probably deserves a shout out in that regard considering that's an area he's had notable success in.

Specifically, I liked the value Minnesota got in those trades. As I noted in the draft thread, the Wolves got a very attractive return for the 19th overall pick (1210) by receiving the 22nd (1040) and 29th overall picks (690), according to Kevin Pelton's draft pick trade value chart. My best players available were TyTy Washington and Malaki Branham -- either of which would have been good value at 19 -- but with the group of talent remaining still strong it made sense to take the two-for-one there.

Furthermore, I really liked the decision to trade up from 29 to 26 to ensure that they got their intended target in Wendell Moore Jr. I like that they established a player they wanted, and then they executed a deal to get him. Two things stand out to me about that decision. Firstly, the Timberwolves were slated to pick behind the Heat (27) and Warriors (28). Both organizations were a threat to take a wing at their draft slots, perhaps even Moore Jr., given that they're well-situated in the frontcourt. Secondly, there was a run on talented wings that started with their initial trade: Jake LaRavia (19), Malaki Branham (20), Christian Braun (21), David Roddy (23), MarJon Beauchamp (24), and Blake Wesley (25). That potentially signaled to the Wolves' front office that if they waited for Moore Jr. to fall they weren't going to get him. Considering he was likely in play for them at 19 it made sense to relinquish two future second-round picks to get their guy.

To me, that showed excellent patience in making the two-for-one deal at 19, and then showed a sense of urgency in trading back up to secure who they wanted. Not to mention, they backfilled those future second-round picks by maneuvering again at 40 and 48. No wonder they felt like they had a great draft.


You mentioned Gupta deserves a shout out. In Connelly's media availability after the draft he did just that praising his staff but specifically praising "Sach" and Zarko.

One other interesting thing he said when asked about how quickly things go in the 2nd round was that teams tend to give you a heads up in the 2nd round what they are thinking on their picks so everyone knows how to navigate a possible trade with only 2 minutes per pick.
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Tactical unit
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Re: Grade the Draft

Post by Tactical unit »

lipoli390 wrote:Good analysis, TU. My initial knee-jerk was a B-. But a more thorough and dispassionate analysis has led me to revise my grade up to a B+. In his post-draft interview with Alan Horton, Finch said the Wolves were looking for thought, two-way players. There's reason to believe all three picks are tough and they all clearly excel on the defensive side of the ball. It remains to be seen how good Kessler and Minott will be on the offensive side. But emphasizing defense in this draft made sense given the offensive prowess of our two best players, KAT and Ant. Connelly said they were focused on drafting players with character - players who love basketball. After digging into all three players since the draft, I can see how Kessler, Moore and Minott check that box.

Bottom line is that Connelly's front office had a plan for the players they wanted and they skillfully executed that plan with relatively minor, but meaningful, deals. They played it relatively safe in the 1st round selecting two high-floor players who also have significant upside and who fit well with the current team by adding skills the team needs. Then Connelly took a big cut in the 2nd round, taking Minott - a prospect with a really high ceiling but also the ability to defend well very early in his career. I thought EJ Liddell was a steal at 41 and I still do unless we hear something new about why he dropped. Nevertheless, I think Connelly made the right move going the the high-upside, athletic Minott after playing it a bit safer in the 1st round. And the Wolves ended up adding the Knicks 2023 2nd-round pick, which is likely to be a pretty high pick.

I needed some time to reflect to fully recognize the smart thinking that Connelly's team put into this draft. We're all used to some pretty bad front offices just winging it on draft day or playing checkers while other front offices play chess. But the current Wolves front office guys, led by Connelly, didn't do that. They adjusted and adapted as events unfolded, skillfully executing a rational plan to improve the team offer the long haul as Ant and McDaniels develop and as KAT enters the prime of his career and begins a super-max long-term deal. I'm still keeping the Wolves grade at B+. Part of that is my resistance to modern grade inflation. :). But that grade could certainly go up by the end of next season with hindsight.


Good point on NY 2nd likely to be high, small moves like that allow you to turn small slivers of value into a trade asset or even better give you the draft pick in the right spot to hit on a young player. I really like the direction they took the team in draft and have hope for more meaningful moves.
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WildWolf2813
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Re: Grade the Draft

Post by WildWolf2813 »

C-. Even after reevaluating the evening, I can't fail them for trying to fix a problem with the team with regards to size, rebounding and blocks and Connelly probably figured, if the DPOY of college hoops can't help this team out then nobody can. But I just don't see it with Kessler at the next level with this team for the same reasons we had trouble with these other players we acquired who we hope help us defensively: when they struggle offensively, it makes it tough to keep them on the floor. Kessler might wind up the same way. The logic I admit was sound (if Kessler can play alongside Jabari Smith Jr, then why not alongside KAT) and KAT had a similar role in college alongside Willie Cauley Stein.


Wendell Moore was the best pick of the evening. Even if all he'll be is Ant's backup, it's solid depth to add and maybe he becomes more than that.


Josh Minott I'm not a big fan of. I know the analytics community loved Minott but they also loved Jake Layman too and that didn't work out for us either. Ship him off to Iowa.

The Spagnolo pick isn't necessarily a bad pick; I just don't think we'll ever hear his name here again. He's a throw-in to any future deal.

Short of adding Minott on a two way deal, I'm not particularly encouraged by the team not addressing their two-way situation outside of Theo John which is a massive waste of time.


Biggest problem I had is that we didn't address PG and short of making a major trade for one, that's gonna be a major sore spot for this team going forward. The future starting PG of this team is not here as far as I'm concerned and it's not in the 2023 class either.
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WildWolf2813
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Re: Grade the Draft

Post by WildWolf2813 »

Q-was-here wrote:Dane Moore
@DaneMooreNBA
·
8h
Tim Connelly talked a lot tonight about targeting players with a certain type of character.

"To say that their background is stellar would be a gross understatement"

Connelly said he had Hall of Famers calling during the draft to vouch for the character of the guys they drafted


Oh, no.
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Tactical unit
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Re: Grade the Draft

Post by Tactical unit »

WildWolf2813 wrote:C-. Even after reevaluating the evening, I can't fail them for trying to fix a problem with the team with regards to size, rebounding and blocks and Connelly probably figured, if the DPOY of college hoops can't help this team out then nobody can. But I just don't see it with Kessler at the next level with this team for the same reasons we had trouble with these other players we acquired who we hope help us defensively: when they struggle offensively, it makes it tough to keep them on the floor. Kessler might wind up the same way. The logic I admit was sound (if Kessler can play alongside Jabari Smith Jr, then why not alongside KAT) and KAT had a similar role in college alongside Willie Cauley Stein.


Wendell Moore was the best pick of the evening. Even if all he'll be is Ant's backup, it's solid depth to add and maybe he becomes more than that.


Josh Minott I'm not a big fan of. I know the analytics community loved Minott but they also loved Jake Layman too and that didn't work out for us either. Ship him off to Iowa.

The Spagnolo pick isn't necessarily a bad pick; I just don't think we'll ever hear his name here again. He's a throw-in to any future deal.

Short of adding Minott on a two way deal, I'm not particularly encouraged by the team not addressing their two-way situation outside of Theo John which is a massive waste of time.


Biggest problem I had is that we didn't address PG and short of making a major trade for one, that's gonna be a major sore spot for this team going forward. The future starting PG of this team is not here as far as I'm concerned and it's not in the 2023 class either.


6' 6" Bolmaro 21 Years old
5' 11" J-Mac 26 Years old
6' 4" DLO 26 Years old
6' 5" Moore Jr 20 Years old
6' 5" Spagnolo 19 Year old

One could develop into the best version of themselves and be your PG of the future as well as anyone in 2023.

This year Pat Bev is your heart and sole PG and you either have DLO or make a trade if some upgrade becomes possible. With ANT looking like a superb primary ball handling scoring option, I think we need the 2nd crunch time guard to be defensively sound and capable on offense.

I think they have there eyes open towards a PG upgrade, so I don't mind if PG is murky at the moment with lotto ticket long term options and vets. They can continually shop the market, MN might wind up on a players wish list when players see MN is young and talented. They can still make deals between now and the trade deadline to address ANT's back court crunch time guard partner.

I wouldn't be overly concerned about the position in a more position less NBA.
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