lipoli390 wrote:I think most of us are on the same page in viewing draft picks as longer-term investments who should not be expected to contribute significantly right away. However, there's an increasing body of evidence that draft picks, including those in the bottom two-thirds of the 1st round, can help a lot by their second or third season. The most recent example of that is Grant Williams who, in his 3rd season after being selected at #22 in 2019, scored 27 points last night in game 7 against last year's champion Milwaukee Bucks. He didn't put up stellar numbers during the regular season by any stretch, but he played in 77 games and averaged nearly 25 minutes per game this season.
Grant Williams joins an impressive list of 3rd-season players from the bottom two-thirds of the 2019 draft, including:
Cam Johnson #11
PJ Washington #12
Tyler Herro #13
Matisse Thybulle #20
Brandon Clarke #21
Jordan Poole #28
I'd add a few 2019 2nd-round picks to that list as impressive productive 3rd-season players, including:
Nic Claxton #31
Daniel Gafford #38
Eric Paschall #41
Jaylen Nowell #43
Terrance Mann #48
There are some others I haven't listed who have performed like NBA players and who could become very good, including #30 Kevin Porter Jr. and Goga Bitadze.
And here's my list of players from the 2020 draft who were significant rotation contributors to their respective teams in only their second seasons:
Devin Vassell #11
Tyrese Haliburton #12
Cole Anthony #15
Isaiah Steward #16
Saddiq Bey #19
Precious Achiuwa #20
Tyrese Maxey #21
Immanuel Quickley #25
Jaden McDaniels #28
Desmond Bane #30
I probably should have added Payton Pritchard to this list after his 14 point performance last night in game 7. With or without Pritchard, at least half of the bottom 20 in the 2020 draft have already become significant rotation contributors in only their second seasons and some have become starters. This doesn't mean the Wolves should look to this year's draft to fill holes for next season. However, it does tell us that it would be a mistake to dismiss the possibility that a pick at #19 or even at #40 could contribute significantly to the team's success within a year or two if not immediately. Note also that anyone we draft this year will be roughly the same age as our most talented current player, Anthony Edwards. And by the time the guy we draft is in his third season, our best player, KAT, will still be only 28.
That's why I'm pretty adamant that the Wolves should keep their #19 pick and possibly package their 2nd-round picks for another low 1st rounder or to move up from #19. In the alternative, I like the idea of using a couple of our three 2nd-round picks on international players who can be stashed overseas for a year or two.
We have enough traceable players with value, luxury tax room and salary cap exceptions to fill holes though trades and/or free agency without giving up any of our picks.
Good post Lip I agree and I'll add some more players to back up what you have said.
For the 2020 draft I think players you could add to that list are Keldon Johnson, Xavier Tillman and Tre Jones.
A year from now there will probably be some undrafted players to add to the list from 2020 but it's maybe a bit to early for some of those guys to have emerged.
2019 draft Keldon Johnson and Lou Dort undrafted almost missed him looking at the lists. He is playing on a bad team but I think it's clear he is likely at least a worthwhile NBA rotation guy.
Other players worth mentioning in 2019 are Nasir Little, Dean Wade, the Martin brothers, Amir Coffey and maybe even Jalen McDaniels. Some of those guys went undrafted. If Talen Horton Tucker wasn't getting payed a relatively hefty salary I think he would maybe still be viewed more positively.
Young players on bad teams I think good teams would like to have and may be able to contribute.
2019 Garrison Mathews, Isaiah Roby and Darius Brazley
2020 Kenyon Martin Jr
Some of these players will end up turning out to just be guys or out of the league and not worth much some of them maybe because of injury. Still there are a lot of players on these lists that I think a number of teams would be happy to have acquired in the draft or signed to a deal after it was over. The Wolves have added some of these players themselves. They need to continue to have success there. I'm not expecting them to bat 1.000 (missed on Hagens as an undrafted 2-way deal and the jury is still out on Bolmaro) but they need to continue to have success at a reasonable rate. Wright looks like a reasonably promising 2-way player from last year's rookie class. Knight was a solid use of their other 2-way deal.