Simmons Prediction Thread

[FNG]

Those here who would not even consider trading a potential All-Star (Ant) for a 3-time All-Star (Simmons)...and I believe it's everyone here except me and possibly Cool... have to believe that our current rotation is superior to the rotation we would have with Simmons (after trading Ant, Prince and Layman to match salaries). Let's compare:

KAT/Reid
Vando/Prince
Jaden/Okogie
Ant/Beasley
Dlo/Beverley

vs.

KAT/Reid
Simmons/Vando
Jaden/Okogie
Beasley/Nowell
Dlo/Beverley

Vegas says the first rotation wins 34.5 games, 11.5 more than last year, and I think they are quite close (I understand that almost everyone here says 34.5 is too low, but don't we say that every year?) How many games would you see the second rotation winning? Philadelphia won an 82-game equivalent of 56 games last year with Simmons/Embiid/Harris/Green/Curry starting. I admit that Simmons had a strong supporting cast last year, but is KAT/Jaden/Beasley/Dlo that much worse? I would argue our supporting cast is not quite as good as Philly's, but at least close. I think rotation 2 above wins at least 50 games this season, far more than rotation 1.

I'm curious how many games you guys see each of the above rotations winning this season, so please weigh in. And if you think it's the first rotation, doesn't that mean you believe Embiid/Harris/Green/Curry is far, far better than KAT/Jaden/Dlo/Beasley, since Simmons is the common 5th man in each rotation?

I'll hang up and listen...

[Monster]

Those here who would not even consider trading a potential All-Star (Ant) for a 3-time All-Star (Simmons)...and I believe it's everyone here except me and possibly Cool... have to believe that our current rotation is superior to the rotation we would have with Simmons (after trading Ant, Prince and Layman to match salaries). Let's compare:

KAT/Reid
Vando/Prince
Jaden/Okogie
Ant/Beasley
Dlo/Beverley

vs.

KAT/Reid
Simmons/Vando
Jaden/Okogie
Beasley/Nowell
Dlo/Beverley

Vegas says the first rotation wins 34.5 games, 11.5 more than last year, and I think they are quite close (I understand that almost everyone here says 34.5 is too low, but don't we say that every year?) How many games would you see the second rotation winning? Philadelphia won an 82-game equivalent of 56 games last year with Simmons/Embiid/Harris/Green/Curry starting. I admit that Simmons had a strong supporting cast last year, but is KAT/Jaden/Beasley/Dlo that much worse? I would argue our supporting cast is not quite as good as Philly's, but at least close. I think rotation 2 above wins at least 50 games this season, far more than rotation 1.

I'm curious how many games you guys see each of the above rotations winning this season, so please weigh in. And if you think it's the first rotation, doesn't that mean you believe Embiid/Harris/Green/Curry is far, far better than KAT/Jaden/Dlo/Beasley, since Simmons is the common 5th man in each rotation?

I'll hang up and listen...

Let's go a step farther if in your opinion Edwards should be on the table for the Wolves what other teams should be trading their unproven/offensive minded players for Simmons?

I'll hang up and listen.

[FNG]

Monster, I'm a hopelessly Wolves-centric guy, so I hardly ever give a thought to other teams (unless we're playing them that night). So I wouldn't be able to answer what other teams would be willing to give up to acquire Simmons.

I am curious though about how many wins you think each of the two rotations I laid out would end up with, and which core of four players you think is stronger and why.

[Monster]

Monster, I'm a hopelessly Wolves-centric guy, so I hardly ever give a thought to other teams (unless we're playing them that night). So I wouldn't be able to answer what other teams would be willing to give up to acquire Simmons.

I am curious though about how many wins you think each of the two rotations I laid out would end up with, and which core of four players you think is stronger and why.

The bottom line is that if Simmons is so valueable that Edwards should be an option teams should be putting their top players out there too. The Kings should be offering Fox Memphis should probably be offing Ja Morant...the list goes on. So far the reporting is no teams are close to offering players like that. Why do you think that is?

[FNG]

Monster, I'm a hopelessly Wolves-centric guy, so I hardly ever give a thought to other teams (unless we're playing them that night). So I wouldn't be able to answer what other teams would be willing to give up to acquire Simmons.

I am curious though about how many wins you think each of the two rotations I laid out would end up with, and which core of four players you think is stronger and why.

The bottom line is that if Simmons is so valueable that Edwards should be an option teams should be putting their top players out there too. The Kings should be offering Fox Memphis should probably be offing Ja Morant...the list goes on. So far the reporting is no teams are close to offering players like that. Why do you think that is?

Let's make a deal. I'll make an effort to answer your question, and you'll answer mine. That's the kind of dialogue we engage in here, and I think it's an interesting exercise.

I think what most others here think...that other teams are not offering anything close to what Morey wants because they are being patient and want to see how this settles. They know that Morey is not going to get Beal or Lilliard, but they are also fairly certain he's not going to bite on the various poo poo platters teams are proposing. And there's a vast open space in between these two options, and I don't think POBOs (including Rosas, who badly wants him) know whether this will end up with a deal closer to what Morey wants, or closer to what teams are willing to give up. So we're far from a deal, I think. Cam has said he's certain Simmons will not play a minute for Philly this year, but I'm not so sure. Sure, he wants (and expects) to be traded, but he also wants to get paid and play basketball...so he will show up just like Jimmy Butler did (albeit with less drama). And eventually a deal will happen, but it will be for a return less than Damien Lilliard (and by the way, I think most NBA analysts would consider Ant way less than Lilliard). So that's my answer as to why I don't think any team has offered anything close to what Morey wants...they're being patient and waiting to see how low he's willing to go.

Ok, your turn. Some of us have gone on record with how many wins they think my first rotation above (the current Wolves rotation is no deals are made) would win...and most of the forecasts are significantly above the published betting line. Now substitute Simmons for Ant and analyze that rotation. How many games would you forecast that rotation would win?

[Monster]

Monster, I'm a hopelessly Wolves-centric guy, so I hardly ever give a thought to other teams (unless we're playing them that night). So I wouldn't be able to answer what other teams would be willing to give up to acquire Simmons.

I am curious though about how many wins you think each of the two rotations I laid out would end up with, and which core of four players you think is stronger and why.

The bottom line is that if Simmons is so valueable that Edwards should be an option teams should be putting their top players out there too. The Kings should be offering Fox Memphis should probably be offing Ja Morant...the list goes on. So far the reporting is no teams are close to offering players like that. Why do you think that is?

Let's make a deal. I'll make an effort to answer your question, and you'll answer mine. That's the kind of dialogue we engage in here, and I think it's an interesting exercise.

I think what most others here think...that other teams are not offering anything close to what Morey wants because they are being patient and want to see how this settles. They know that Morey is not going to get Beal or Lilliard, but they are also fairly certain he's not going to bite on the various poo poo platters teams are proposing. And there's a vast open space in between these two options, and I don't think POBOs (including Rosas, who badly wants him) know whether this will end up with a deal closer to what Morey wants, or closer to what teams are willing to give up. So we're far from a deal, I think. Cam has said he's certain Simmons will not play a minute for Philly this year, but I'm not so sure. Sure, he wants (and expects) to be traded, but he also wants to get paid and play basketball...so he will show up just like Jimmy Butler did (albeit with less drama). And eventually a deal will happen, but it will be for a return less than Damien Lilliard (and by the way, I think most NBA analysts would consider Ant way less than Lilliard). So that's my answer as to why I don't think any team has offered anything close to what Morey wants...they're being patient and waiting to see how low he's willing to go.

Ok, your turn. Some of us have gone on record with how many wins they think my first rotation above (the current Wolves rotation is no deals are made) would win...and most of the forecasts are significantly above the published betting line. Now substitute Simmons for Ant and analyze that rotation. How many games would you forecast that rotation would win?

I've already answered your question days ago.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

FNG, I think the rotation with Simmons in it is the better one, but not by much. You have literally the worst starting defensive backcourt in the league with Beasley and DLO (yes, Ant is a better defender than Beasley). Simmons and Jaden certainly make for a good defensive frontcourt pairing, but they can only cover for so much. You are still left with three very subpar defenders in DLO, Beasley, and KAT. The bench is better defensively, but Okogie and Vando playing together would create a lot of spacing problems for the offense.

But most of us don't look at Ant vs. Simmons with a myopic one-year lens, as your question presupposes. Simmons is what he is at this point. His strengths and flaws have hardly budged since his rookie year. Ant on the other hand was on an upward linear trajectory that seemingly went unabated through the end of last season. We don't know what his ceiling is and I'd like to find that out while he's wearing our uniform!

[Lipoli390]

For the record, I agree with Monster. My message to FNG is this: Just let it go! :). As we all know, Rosas will NOT include Ant in any deal for Simmons. Nor should he. I won't rehash the points Cam, Monster and others have already made. I'll just point out that the Kings won't trade Fox - a terrible defender on a terrible defensive team. How do his metrics compare to Simmons even after two NBA seasons? The Kings apparently won't even include Haliburton in a Simmons deal. It would appear that the Warriors won't even include Wiseman. Would the Hornets include LaMello Ball in a deal for Simmons? No. Would the Pistons trade Cade Cunningham or Houston trade J. Green for Simmons? Again the answer is no, even though neither Cunningham nor Green has played a single NBA game. Are the Sacramento, Golden State, Detroit, Charlotte and Houston front offices all lead by idiots? Well, maybe. But still, there's a collective wisdom even among idiots. You don't trade an elite young talent on a rookie contract for a seriously flawed vet like Simmons who is early on a max contract with a team aggressively trying to jettison him.

[FNG]

Monster, I'm a hopelessly Wolves-centric guy, so I hardly ever give a thought to other teams (unless we're playing them that night). So I wouldn't be able to answer what other teams would be willing to give up to acquire Simmons.

I am curious though about how many wins you think each of the two rotations I laid out would end up with, and which core of four players you think is stronger and why.

The bottom line is that if Simmons is so valueable that Edwards should be an option teams should be putting their top players out there too. The Kings should be offering Fox Memphis should probably be offing Ja Morant...the list goes on. So far the reporting is no teams are close to offering players like that. Why do you think that is?

Let's make a deal. I'll make an effort to answer your question, and you'll answer mine. That's the kind of dialogue we engage in here, and I think it's an interesting exercise.

I think what most others here think...that other teams are not offering anything close to what Morey wants because they are being patient and want to see how this settles. They know that Morey is not going to get Beal or Lilliard, but they are also fairly certain he's not going to bite on the various poo poo platters teams are proposing. And there's a vast open space in between these two options, and I don't think POBOs (including Rosas, who badly wants him) know whether this will end up with a deal closer to what Morey wants, or closer to what teams are willing to give up. So we're far from a deal, I think. Cam has said he's certain Simmons will not play a minute for Philly this year, but I'm not so sure. Sure, he wants (and expects) to be traded, but he also wants to get paid and play basketball...so he will show up just like Jimmy Butler did (albeit with less drama). And eventually a deal will happen, but it will be for a return less than Damien Lilliard (and by the way, I think most NBA analysts would consider Ant way less than Lilliard). So that's my answer as to why I don't think any team has offered anything close to what Morey wants...they're being patient and waiting to see how low he's willing to go.

Ok, your turn. Some of us have gone on record with how many wins they think my first rotation above (the current Wolves rotation is no deals are made) would win...and most of the forecasts are significantly above the published betting line. Now substitute Simmons for Ant and analyze that rotation. How many games would you forecast that rotation would win?

I've already answered your question days ago.

Didn't see it...had a busy week, so please repeat it. But I think you're making my point. We have a lot of smart guys here, and when they really sit down and analyze how powerful the lineup would be if we added Simmons to KAT, Jaden, DLO and Beasley, it forces them to consider the unthinkable...even though I love Ant, we'd be a powerhouse if we swapped him for Simmons.

One thing that hasn't been mentioned is that Simmons is likely to be much more effective offensively here than he is in Philly. Reports are that he has never had great chemistry with his teammates in Philly. In contrast, he's reported to be great friends, going back to HS, with KAT and Dlo. Just imagine the chemistry if he was able to play with his buddies! Come on Gerrsson...make it happen!

Again I have to repeat my disclaimer. I don't want to trade Ant unless we absolutely have to. We would be even better if we could retain Ant and get Simmons for a lesser price. This discussion is limited to whether we would be better or worse if we were forced to give up Ant. And I recognize that's an uncomfortable topic for us...me included.

[Monster]

Monster, I'm a hopelessly Wolves-centric guy, so I hardly ever give a thought to other teams (unless we're playing them that night). So I wouldn't be able to answer what other teams would be willing to give up to acquire Simmons.

I am curious though about how many wins you think each of the two rotations I laid out would end up with, and which core of four players you think is stronger and why.

The bottom line is that if Simmons is so valueable that Edwards should be an option teams should be putting their top players out there too. The Kings should be offering Fox Memphis should probably be offing Ja Morant...the list goes on. So far the reporting is no teams are close to offering players like that. Why do you think that is?

Let's make a deal. I'll make an effort to answer your question, and you'll answer mine. That's the kind of dialogue we engage in here, and I think it's an interesting exercise.

I think what most others here think...that other teams are not offering anything close to what Morey wants because they are being patient and want to see how this settles. They know that Morey is not going to get Beal or Lilliard, but they are also fairly certain he's not going to bite on the various poo poo platters teams are proposing. And there's a vast open space in between these two options, and I don't think POBOs (including Rosas, who badly wants him) know whether this will end up with a deal closer to what Morey wants, or closer to what teams are willing to give up. So we're far from a deal, I think. Cam has said he's certain Simmons will not play a minute for Philly this year, but I'm not so sure. Sure, he wants (and expects) to be traded, but he also wants to get paid and play basketball...so he will show up just like Jimmy Butler did (albeit with less drama). And eventually a deal will happen, but it will be for a return less than Damien Lilliard (and by the way, I think most NBA analysts would consider Ant way less than Lilliard). So that's my answer as to why I don't think any team has offered anything close to what Morey wants...they're being patient and waiting to see how low he's willing to go.

Ok, your turn. Some of us have gone on record with how many wins they think my first rotation above (the current Wolves rotation is no deals are made) would win...and most of the forecasts are significantly above the published betting line. Now substitute Simmons for Ant and analyze that rotation. How many games would you forecast that rotation would win?

I've already answered your question days ago.

Didn't see it...had a busy week, so please repeat it. But I think you're making my point. We have a lot of smart guys here, and when they really sit down and analyze how powerful the lineup would be if we added Simmons to KAT, Jaden, DLO and Beasley, it forces them to consider the unthinkable...even though I love Ant, we'd be a powerhouse if we swapped him for Simmons.

One thing that hasn't been mentioned is that Simmons is likely to be much more effective offensively here than he is in Philly. Reports are that he has never had great chemistry with his teammates in Philly. In contrast, he's reported to be great friends, going back to HS, with KAT and Dlo. Just imagine the chemistry if he was able to play with his buddies! Come on Gerrsson...make it happen!

Again I have to repeat my disclaimer. I don't want to trade Ant unless we absolutely have to. We would be even better if we could retain Ant and get Simmons for a lesser price. This discussion is limited to whether we would be better or worse if we were forced to give up Ant. And I recognize that's an uncomfortable topic for us...me included.

My reply is that I haven't made a prediction for this season yet and I wouldn't with a theoretical Simmons deal because I don't know what it would include. The offseason isn't over yet maybe another team makes a move or someone gets injured. I'm simply not looking at summing up things in terms of win totals...yet. Would Simmons make the Wolves better this coming season? Probably but I'm not as concerned about this season as I am beyond.