Simmons Prediction Thread

[Crazysauce]

Oh my, if Rosas trades Edwards for Simmons than he truly is the village idiot. I cant tell you the hate and vitriol I would have for him. I would rather trade Towns than Edwards. In no circumstances do you include Edwards for Simmons. NONE!

[Crazysauce]

And just to clarify, I would not trade Towns either for him.

[Lipoli390]

Oh my, if Rosas trades Edwards for Simmons than he truly is the village idiot. I cant tell you the hate and vitriol I would have for him. I would rather trade Towns than Edwards. In no circumstances do you include Edwards for Simmons. NONE!

I agree completely. Moreover, I think giving up Edwards would be way too much given Simmons' market value. Heck, apparently Sacramento won't even give up Haliburton for Simmons.

Since this is a prediction thread, I'll go out on a limb and predict that Rosas will absolutely not include Edwards in any deal for Simmons. I am, however, concerned that Rosas will pay to much for Simmons. A lot of credible NBA reporters keep reporting that the Wolves are the most aggressive pursuer of Simmons. Rosas has a tendency to get tunnel vision and develop a single-minded obsession with getting a player he wants. I'm afraid that's where he's at with Simmons. I like Simmons, but I don't want to overpay for him. When I look at the talent we have and flaws Ben Simmons has, I don't think the Wolves should or need to be intent on landing Simmons.

[FNG]

FNG, what will other teams be offering that forces Gersson Rosas to include Anthony Edwards? I would love to hear your thoughts on that because it appears to me that your view of Ben Simmons' market is very flawed, to say the least.

There have been no reports of any front-line stars being offered for Simmons, so I can't name any...that's why I think Morey sits tight until someone ups the ante. There is talk on Warriors' boards about Draymond Green, but with his age and lack of scoring punch, he's not exactly what Philly wants back without adding a lot a young talent.

I think many here are significantly undervaluing Simmons. The fact that we have over 19 pages of Simmons' speculation posts tells me there is a lot of excitement here about the possibility of picking up a true game changer, and I suspect a similar level of excitement exists in other markets. But a star demanding a trade puts his team in a bad bargaining position, so POBO's (including Rosas) are smart to continue to offer the poo poo platters they are bringing up in hopes that Morey will panic. My gut tells me he won't.

Here's why I think this board is undervaluing Simmons. Dane Moore surveyed dozens of coaches and assistant coaches in Vegas as to who the best defensive player in the league was, and Simmons was the clear winner (Gobert was second, and nobody else got many votes). Mull that over for a moment...HE IS THE BEST DEFENDER IN THE LEAGUE ACCORDING TO COACHES. On offense we know he has no outside shot and is worse at the free throw line than even Giannis. But he did average 14.3/7.2/6.9 last year, and his 58.4 TS% was better than any starter on the Wolves except KAT. So to call him a decent offensive player with flaws would be fair. And he's only 25 years old.

So let's turn it around. Let's say the 25-year-old best offensive player in the league with also some flaws on defense (but not a disaster by any means) wanted out. What would you be willing to give up to bring him in, assuming you had a huge need in the area he excelled in (scoring)? Say, 25-year-old Steph Curry. Would you trade Anthony Edwards for 25-year-old Steph Curry? As much as I love Ant, I wouldn't hesitate to make that deal.

Don't get me wrong...I would love to see Morey bite on one of the deals you and others are throwing out there. It would be terrific to bring in a gamechanger like Simmons without giving up KAT or Ant. And Simmons could surprise me, and though it doesn't seem to be in his character, start acting in a disruptive fashion like Butler did. If that happens, the asking price plummets and one of the poo poo platters becomes a reality. But so far Simmons is acting more maturely than General Soreness. He's calmly saying he wants out, while releasing video after video of him draining left-handed threes and mid-rangers (yeah I know...even RJH made his shots in his workout videos a year ago. NBA players make shots in practice). We'll have to see what happens...I hope posters here like you and Lip are right about Simmons' diminished value and we pick him up cheaply. I see that as the only immediate hope for this franchise.

[Monster]

Edwards will not be traded for Simmons. I would not trade Edwards for Simmons.

[FNG]

I hear rabid disagreement with my opinion that Ant should at least be considered as bait for bringing in Simmons. I would guess 90% of the board wouldn't consider including him in a deal...so far only Cool has said he would consider it. But I think the reluctance of the board to trade Ant goes hand-in-hand with another active thread here in which posters have the Wolves with 10-12 more wins than Vegas. Cam says this board historically has done a decent job of predicting Wolves' win totals...I only know our median prediction was 12 games too optimistic last year. also I'm going to take Cam's word for it because I'm too lazy to do the research, but I suspect that if I went back and reviewed prediction threads for the past 5 years, I would find a similar level of over-optimism. Any thoughts about that?

So, I have to conclude that Vegas' current 33.5 forecast given the existing Wolves' roster is fairly accurate. So then, let's predict how many wins this rotation would get:

KAT/Reid
Simmons/Vando
Jaden/Josh
Beasley/Nowell
Dlo/Beverley

While there would still be some struggles defensively with the backcourt, having Simmons around to guard the other team's best player gives Finch the flexibility to hide either Dlo or Beasley (and Beverley can finish games if we need to protect a lead). And we would be a juggernaut offensively...imagine pairing an elite distributor like Simmons with 4 starters not afraid to let it fly who averaged 38% beyond the arc last season!

I think this rotation wins 48 games next season, and I suspect the Vegas line would change drastically if this deal happened. Sure, Ant is 5 years younger than Simmons, but I find that of little concern because we would still have Simmons here playing with his HS buddies KAT and Dlo for many years.

Here's my question for Lip, Cam, crazysauce and anyone else who wants to weigh in. How many games do you think the rotation above with Simmons wins this season? Be very careful with your answer, because you know I will hold you to it if the deal happens (and I don't think it will)!

(Full disclosure. I see the Wolves winning 50 or more games if one of the other deals mentioned here comes to fruition...Dlo/Beas, Beas/Jaden, etc would all be better deals for this franchise. I just don't see them happening unless Simmons holds a gun to Morey's head.)

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

There's just a complete lack of understanding on your part, FNG, when it comes to the situation the Sixers find themselves in. Gersson Rosas would only even consider trading Anthony Edwards if there were offers from other bidders for Ben Simmons that forced him to consider outbidding them by making Edwards available. Those offers are not there. And whether you believe it or not, Simmons will almost certainly be traded during training camp, which means that Philadelphia will need to find an acceptable deal for Simmons sooner rather than later. Again, you're ignoring the additional factors at play here and instead focusing on the quality of player Simmons is, which is fine, except his trade value doesn't reflect that at this time. Edwards will not be dealt and nor should he.

[Porckchop]

There has never been and never will be a basketball player worth 3 first round pics plus players that can't shoot the basketball.

[FNG]

There's just a complete lack of understanding on your part, FNG when it comes to the situation the Sixers find themselves in. Gersson Rosas would only even consider trading Anthony Edwards if there were offers from other bidders for Ben Simmons that forced him to consider outbidding them by making Edwards available. Those offers are not there. And whether you believe it or not, Simmons will almost certainly be traded during training camp, which means that Philadelphia will need to find an acceptable deal for Simmons sooner rather than later. Again, you're ignoring the additional factors at play here and instead focusing on the quality of player Simmons is, which is fine, except his trade value doesn't reflect that at this time. Edwards will not be dealt and nor should he.

Wait Cam...are you my girlfriend in disguise? She's the only person I know who always says I have "a complete lack of understanding"....about damn near everything! And she loves D'Angelo Russell too! That you, honey? ;-)

I actually agree with what you are saying. Ant is Rosas's boy and potentially a star in this league (although I don't think he will ever quite get to Simmons' level), and there's no way he is going to offer him up unless another suitor puts a star on the table. And I agree that nobody has done that yet. But he also seems to be the POBO who most desires Simmons, so I think he will do whatever it takes to get him. So far the reported market is deals like Beasley and Jaden plus picks, but the ante might be upped as we get closer to a deal. I think you agree that Simmons is much more moderate in personality and not as disruptive as Butler, and Thibs didn't even trade Butler before the season started when the situation was much more broken than the Simmons situation. Do we think Simmons is going to show up and beat the starters by playing with backups in training camp? Nope, he's just not a dick like Butler. If Thibs didn't feel like he had to trade a cancer like Butler before the season started, why do you think Morey will take a bad deal just to get Simmons out of town.

And you didn't answer my two questions (and I'd love for others to weigh in also, because the Simmons situation is real, and this is a good talker).

1) Hypothetically, would you trade Ant for a 25-year-old Steph Curry?

2) How many wins do you see the above rotation winning if we traded Ant for Simmons? Do you think Vegas would increase its posted win total if we made that trade, or would it still be 33.5?

[Monster]

There's just a complete lack of understanding on your part, FNG when it comes to the situation the Sixers find themselves in. Gersson Rosas would only even consider trading Anthony Edwards if there were offers from other bidders for Ben Simmons that forced him to consider outbidding them by making Edwards available. Those offers are not there. And whether you believe it or not, Simmons will almost certainly be traded during training camp, which means that Philadelphia will need to find an acceptable deal for Simmons sooner rather than later. Again, you're ignoring the additional factors at play here and instead focusing on the quality of player Simmons is, which is fine, except his trade value doesn't reflect that at this time. Edwards will not be dealt and nor should he.

Wait Cam...are you my girlfriend in disguise? She's the only person I know who always says I have "a complete lack of understanding"....about damn near everything! And she loves D'Angelo Russell too! That you, honey? ;-)

I actually agree with what you are saying. Ant is Rosas's boy and potentially a star in this league (although I don't think he will ever quite get to Simmons' level), and there's no way he is going to offer him up unless another suitor puts a star on the table. And I agree that nobody has done that yet. But he also seems to be the POBO who most desires Simmons, so I think he will do whatever it takes to get him. So far the reported market is deals like Beasley and Jaden plus picks, but the ante might be upped as we get closer to a deal. I think you agree that Simmons is much more moderate in personality and not as disruptive as Butler, and Thibs didn't even trade Butler before the season started when the situation was much more broken than the Simmons situation. Do we think Simmons is going to show up and beat the starters by playing with backups in training camp? Nope, he's just not a dick like Butler. If Thibs didn't feel like he had to trade a cancer like Butler before the season started, why do you think Morey will take a bad deal just to get Simmons out of town.

And you didn't answer my two questions (and I'd love for others to weigh in also, because the Simmons situation is real, and this is a good talker).

1) Hypothetically, would you trade Ant for a 25-year-old Steph Curry?

2) How many wins do you see the above rotation winning if we traded Ant for Simmons? Do you think Vegas would increase its posted win total if we made that trade, or would it still be 33.5?

FNG are you suggesting Simmons is going to be a first ballot HOF player and win multiple MVP awards?