Simmons Prediction Thread

[kekgeek]

For the Wolves the best thing that can happen is the Sixers start off slow. That puts pressure on them. Also the Wolves can see what their roster looks like going forward

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

For the Wolves the best thing that can happen is the Sixers start off slow. That puts pressure on them. Also the Wolves can see what their roster looks like going forward

That's a possibility. I think there's a decent chance this team as currently constructed starts off strong and they might conclude that they don't need to make a trade this year. That's a fair stance to have. I think Minnesota would obviously rather make a trade before the regular season starts because once games are being played and guys are getting comfortable in their roles, it'll be yet another change to adjust to and overcome.

[Lipoli390]

Interesting notes from Keith Pompey of The Philadelphia Inquirer:

- The Timberwolves, Pacers, Cavaliers, Pistons, Raptors and Spurs continue to inquire about Ben Simmons' availability.

- This standoff could drag on until after December 15th, when many free agents signed this summer can be included in trades.

- Rich Paul tried to assist the Sixers in receiving a five-player package for Simmons in a three-team trade, but Philadelphia's asking price was too rich.

- Simmons' $8.25-million advanced payment has been placed in an escrow account. Simmons is likely to receive all the money in his contract once he's traded since it's expected the team that acquires him will waive the fines the Sixers have instituted for his refusal to show up for training camp.

- Simmons' desire to be traded was communicated to the front office just days after the team was eliminated from the playoffs. Paul told GM Elton Brand his client wanted out three days after the Hawks bounced the team out of the playoff chase. Brand then told president of basketball operations Daryl Morey.

Interesting info, Cam. Here's my take on what the Sixers might reasonably expect to get from each of the teams you listed:

Wolves: Package built round Beasley + Prince or Beverley + lots of picks. Or package built around DLO + limited number of picks.
Pacers: Package build around Brogdon + Lamb or other player + future picks
Cavs: Package built around Sexton + either Ricky or Love + future picks
Pistons: Package built around Killian Hayes + lots of picks. (Pistons deal seems highly unlikely)
Raptors: Package built around VanVleet + limited number of picks. (I doubt Anuoby is still available)
Spurs: Package build around Dejounte Murray + McDermott or other player + future picks

I could see the Pacers stepping up with an offer of Brogdon and Turner in exchange for Simmons, Reed and maybe Maxey. The Pacers would probably plug Simmons in as their PG while looking to Sabonis, Bitadze, Isaiah Jackson, Brissett and Reed as their bigs.

If I were in Morey's shoes, I'd love a Brogdon/Turner package. Otherwise, I'd be torn between a VanVleet package and a Sexton package. The Sexton/Ricky package would be tempting. I'm really high on Sexton for a team like the Sixers, which is already solid defensively with Embiid, Thybulle and Harris. Sexton's scoring volume and efficiency were superb last season at age 22 in only his 3rd season. He would provide the Sixers with immediate help with lots of additional upside. Ricky would provide a sold veteran PG. I also think a Sexton/Love package would be a good deal for the Sixers. If Love can stay healthy, he can still play.

[Lipoli390]

"As an Aussie who grew up watching Ben's father play several seasons, a likeable, solid but unspectacular workhorse PF, I've always tried to like Ben Simmons. I've always wanted him to succeed. But it's become very difficult to defend him. It's become difficult to even like him.

I've followed his career for a long time and recall him playing for the junior national team as a 15-year-old. I identified years ago that his attitude is a major stumbling block for him, stemming from a mental weakness of sorts. He also seems to have social issues. He's an introvert, which isn't a problem itself, but it's much more than that. He has always appeared to be a bit of an outsider. He has a history of feeling entitled. He has a history of struggling to reconcile.

He basically forced the Australian national team to change coach because he refused to play for the national team coach who had previously cut him from the World Championships team as a 17-year-old. This same coach selected him in the regional qualification tournament as a 15-year-old, but that didn't matter. Like his social media off-season highlights packages, he teased Aussies with the prospect of playing for the national team, but again and again, he would pull out in the last minute, leaving his teammates puzzled about what happened. Andrew Bogut recalls a story prior to the 2019 World Cup where he basically just disappeared without warning after previously turning up to practice. Simmons didn't contact any of his teammates. Then before the 2021 Olympics, the new national team coach based the whole game plan around Simmons turning up, because Simmons gave the impression he would play. This time he didn't even turn up to training. The irony is, the national team ended up snatching a bronze nonetheless, utilising an appreciative, cooperative and extremely likeable Matisse Thybulle.

Simmons is clearly a very talented player, and I have no doubt he could have a decent jumper in the NBA. He was a respectable midrange shooter as a 15-year-old. His father, who only had an ugly 15-footer in his first few years playing in Australia, developed a reliable 3-point shot later in his career. But the jumper isn't Simmons' problem. His mentality is. This mental fragility is just getting worse. And the more focus there is on it, the more he will panic in those crucial situations.

He has always had a pattern of decreased productivity from 1st to 4th quarters throughout his career, which could be due to any number of reasons. But I suspect much of it can be summarised as this: fear of choking.

It's even possible to identify his fear of choking from his splits by actual margin lasts season. When his team is down 1-5, he hits FTs at 78%! In that situation, his mentality is more aggressive, more focused, not second guessing himself because he doesn't have the prospect of choking to contend with. When the score is tied, he is still active, he is crashing boards at a peak rate, but his FT% plummets to 52%. When up just 1-5, he becomes hesitant, and when he has time to think, like in FTs, his FT% is at that dismal 54% level.

Any NBA team that wants him should be hiring a team of psychologists to work with him. Although one wonders if Ben would ever cooperate, because he also has a history of only working closely with his trusted, inner circle. He might, like throughout this saga, just get offended and withdraw."


Saw this post on a Philly message board. Thought it had some kind of scary and very concerning info on ben simmons I hadn't heard before.

Thanks for posting this, Crazy. This is consistent with other things I've read about Simmons over the years. Reading this reinforces my hesitancy to pursue him (or give up a lot to get him) for the Wolves. We don't have the kind of culture in place to handle the problematic issues that Simmons brings with him. I just have a bad feeling about how things would work out for him here. I'm inclined to roll with what we have this next season and have all of our assets, including young talent and future picks, for future use to shore up our roster.

[KG4Ever]

Pompey wrote: It seems as if it's only a matter of "if," not "when" the Sixers trade away the former No. 1 overall pick. However, Pompey points out that Philly may wait until after December 15th. At that point, the free agents who signed contracts this summer can be included in trades. The Sixers are also still holding out hope that either Dame Lillard demands a trade from the Trail Blazers or Bradley Beal says he wants to part ways with the Wizards.

I think is what many of us have thought all along. I just don't see any Simmons deal likely before December and I wouldn't be surprised if it goes down to the trade deadline except if Philly gets off to a really poor start.

[Lipoli390]

Pompey wrote: It seems as if it's only a matter of "if," not "when" the Sixers trade away the former No. 1 overall pick. However, Pompey points out that Philly may wait until after December 15th. At that point, the free agents who signed contracts this summer can be included in trades. The Sixers are also still holding out hope that either Dame Lillard demands a trade from the Trail Blazers or Bradley Beal says he wants to part ways with the Wizards.

I think is what many of us have thought all along. I just don't see any Simmons deal likely before December and I wouldn't be surprised if it goes down to the trade deadline except if Philly gets off to a really poor start.

I don't see the Sixers waiting until Dec. 15. That's almost two months into the season without Simmons, who will definitely hold out. It would be a really high-risk move by the Sixers to play the first two months of the season without their second-best player/second star on the chance that they MIGHT get a better deal than what they can get now. There are really only three players in the League who would be significantly better gets for what the Sixers need: Lillard, Beal and Fox. The odds that one of them will suddenly become available for Simmons by Dec. 15 are extremely remote.

If the Sixers are intent on holding out for Beal, Lillard or Fox, their better bet would be a deal now that lands them a bevy of future lightly protected 1st round picks and a young talent or two. If Beal or Lillard is suddenly available for trade mid-season it will be because their team is struggling mightily, in which case Washington or Portland will likely be looking to rebuild rather than swap their star guard for a lesser or equal all-star like Simmons. The Sixers are using their conduits in the media to spread the narrative that they will wait. But unless Morey's more of a gambler than he appears to be, it's a false narrative.

[Monster]

Pompey wrote: It seems as if it's only a matter of "if," not "when" the Sixers trade away the former No. 1 overall pick. However, Pompey points out that Philly may wait until after December 15th. At that point, the free agents who signed contracts this summer can be included in trades. The Sixers are also still holding out hope that either Dame Lillard demands a trade from the Trail Blazers or Bradley Beal says he wants to part ways with the Wizards.

I think is what many of us have thought all along. I just don't see any Simmons deal likely before December and I wouldn't be surprised if it goes down to the trade deadline except if Philly gets off to a really poor start.

I don't see the Sixers waiting until Dec. 15. That's almost two months into the season without Simmons, who will definitely hold out. It would be a really high-risk move by the Sixers to play the first two months of the season without their second-best player/second star on the chance that they MIGHT get a better deal than what they can get now. There are really only three players in the League who would be significantly better gets for what the Sixers need: Lillard, Beal and Fox. The odds that one of them will suddenly become available for Simmons by Dec. 15 are extremely remote.

If the Sixers are intent on holding out for Beal, Lillard or Fox, their better bet would be a deal now that lands them a bevy of future lightly protected 1st round picks and a young talent or two. If Beal or Lillard is suddenly available for trade mid-season it will be because their team is struggling mightily, in which case Washington or Portland will likely be looking to rebuild rather than swap their star guard for a lesser or equal all-star like Simmons. The Sixers are using their conduits in the media to spread the narrative that they will wait. But unless Morey's more of a gambler than he appears to be, it's a false narrative.

Here is a one site's list of guys that can't be traded till December 15. Not sure what of these guys would really make someone want to wait 2 more months. Maybe Kyle Lowry?

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2021/09/players-who-cant-be-traded-until-december-15-5.html

[Wolvesfan21]

Favorites To Land Ben Simmons

Team Odds
Timberwolves +196
Rockets +410
Kings +550
Nuggets +750
Warriors +1000
Trail Blazers +1000

Think this was from a few days ago. Just seeing if things changed at all.

[Lipoli390]

The 76ers are looking for trade partners, with USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt reporting the team is "targeting" squads in the Western Conference. However, ESPN's Brian Windhorst said Friday the Indiana Pacers may emerge as a contender, calling them "the sleeper team in this whole situation" on ESPN's The Jump (2:30 mark). Simmons, 25, has been at odds with the Sixers since their loss to the Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern Conference Semifinals in June. Simmons averaged just 9.9 points per game in that series, and he didn't attempt a shot in the fourth quarter of Game 7. - via Nate Loop @ Bleacher Report

This report isn't surprising. A deal centered around Brogdon makes a lot of sense for both team. I'm thinking Brogdon and Myles Turner for Simmons and someone else not named Embiid or Tobias Harris. Maybe add a future 1st to the mix.

[Monster]

The 76ers are looking for trade partners, with USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt reporting the team is "targeting" squads in the Western Conference. However, ESPN's Brian Windhorst said Friday the Indiana Pacers may emerge as a contender, calling them "the sleeper team in this whole situation" on ESPN's The Jump (2:30 mark). Simmons, 25, has been at odds with the Sixers since their loss to the Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern Conference Semifinals in June. Simmons averaged just 9.9 points per game in that series, and he didn't attempt a shot in the fourth quarter of Game 7. - via Nate Loop @ Bleacher Report

This report isn't surprising. A deal centered around Brogdon makes a lot of sense for both team. I'm thinking Brogdon and Myles Turner for Simmons and someone else not named Embiid or Tobias Harris. Maybe add a future 1st to the mix.

I watched the spot that Windhorst was on where he mentioned the Pacers. His point was the Pacers have win now pieces they could move to Philly that other teams have. You mentioned Brogdon and Turner. They also have Lavert too. they also mentioned how they think Pritchard tends to like trading for guys with team control. Turner if Healthy would be quite the pairing with Embiid defensively. IF the reports from a couple months ago are true about the value placed on Turner as a guy that is worth a couple first round picks...that's a pretty significant asset for the Pacers to give up and the Sixer to receive. The Sixers could move him in another deal. Honestly if TJ Warren was healthy, a combo of him and Brogdon would be a pretty good package for Simmons. The interesting thing to me about the Pacers is Sabonis is the only core player they have signed past the 2022-2023 season. could they consider the idea that maybe they me start building around Sabonis and Simmons. Does that pairing even work? Also is Simmons going to like being coached by Rick Carlisle?