Simmons Prediction Thread

[BloopOracle]

What on earth FNG? Edwards has more trade value himself!

[D-Mac [enjin:19736340]]

This is a great thread. I agree with crazy, I would trade kat before I traded edwards.

[Monster]

Monster, I was one of the biggest proponents of Ant here as the first round pick (actually I didn't join the board until post-draft, so you'll just have to trust me that I saw Ant as far superior to Ball and Wiseman :) ). And I really enjoyed his rookie year...both his enthusiasm and athleticism, and his improvement over the course of the year. I have no reason to challenge my initial believe that he should have been picked first, and I'm as excited as many here to see what he can become. But we also saw some of the flaws in his game that some worried about in college...inconsistent shot selection leading to inefficiency and indifferent defense. If he is able to change and overcome both of these, he has a chance to become a HOFer...we obviously don't know enough about him to know what he will be, whereas we have 6 years of results for Simmons.

One intangible about Ant that worries me is his occasional lack of gravitas. Don't get me wrong...I enjoyed his almost childlike demeanor and enthusiasm on the court last season as much as anyone. But I've posted here before (and I admit most disagree) if you think about the on-court demeanor of HOFers, I can't think of anyone other than perhaps Rodman with an Ant-like personality. The typical HOFer consistently had a game face on almost all the time...even at age 20. Think Jordan, Bird, Duncan, etc. I see a difference in gravitas between Ant and the great ones, and I wonder if that might hold him back...even if he is constantly entertaining.

To summarize, I think the Wolves have a unique opportunity to pick up a player who instantly changes them...these opportunities seldom come along. Ant is fun to watch and has potentially a very high ceiling. But we don't know. And this team needs defense...badly. And to choose to not acquire the best defensive player in the league in exchange for a 20-year-old who we all admit has some flaws...that would be short-sighted in my opinion.

I disagree with the gravitas angle and if that's the case why are we trading Edwards for Simmons that certainly doesn't have that himself and has plenty of flaws.

[Lipoli390]

Yesterday, I spoke with a long-time Sixers fan from Philly who was in town for a business conference I was attending. We had an interesting conversation about Simmons. He confirmed what we've all read about Sixers fans really wanting Simmons to go. He said it stems largely from years of frustration watching him fail to improve such a huge hole in his game, namely shooting, along with his passivity, his fear of taking shots and tendency to disappear from view in the 4th quarter. He said the fact that he simply won't take shots has been worse than his poor shooting from a fan perspective. I described what I saw in the replay of the Philly-Toronto semi-final game two years ago with Simmons repeatedly driving the lane and passing out instead of finishing what looked like opportunities for dunks or layups. He said that's the nub of the issue -- that it's not just refusing to take perimeter shots; it's passing up shots in the paint. He said Simmons turns the ball over a lot on those pass-outs because defenders anticipate it. He also said there have been a lot of times his teammates fumbled those pass-outs because they expected him take the shot rather than pass out of the paint.

Anyway, that's one Philly fan's observations and opinion. But he said he's not surprised the market for Simmons has been far less robust that Morey had hoped. He said he hopes the trade Simmons before the season, but he thinks Morey will keep Simmons well into the season in the hope that an opportunity for a better return will materialize closer to the February trade deadline. This guy really hopes that doesn't happen because he doesn't think the market for Simmons will change and doesn't want to see Simmons play for the Sixers anymore or suffer through a nasty hold-out situation.

[FNG]

I've had similar conversations with Philly fans, Lip, including one who was with me watching that fateful Game 7. Two things are clearly true...Philly fans are about as unforgiving as any group of sports fans, and they clearly want Simmons gone. That presents a unique opportunity for the Wolves unlike any I can remember. And your friend's opinion that Morey will wait if he doesn't get an offer he wants (like Thibs did) matches mine.

Lip, I'm curious if you talked with your friend about what he would expect back for Simmons. I'm amazed at how rabid Philly fans that I know can talk about how much they hate Simmons in one breath, and then scoff at any offer from the Wolves that doesn't have KAT or Ant in it in the next! They may or may not have an accurate assessment of Simmons' value, but it certainly isn't in line with the prevailing opinion on this board. And let's keep in mind basketball is a business, and those rabid fans are the people Morey has to keep happy.

[Lipoli390]

I've had similar conversations with Philly fans, Lip, including one who was with me watching that fateful Game 7. Two things are clearly true...Philly fans are about as unforgiving as any group of sports fans, and they clearly want Simmons gone. That presents a unique opportunity for the Wolves unlike any I can remember. And your friend's opinion that Morey will wait if he doesn't get an offer he wants (like Thibs did) matches mine.

Lip, I'm curious if you talked with your friend about what he would expect back for Simmons. I'm amazed at how rabid Philly fans that I know can talk about how much they hate Simmons in one breath, and then scoff at any offer from the Wolves that doesn't have KAT or Ant in it in the next! They may or may not have an accurate assessment of Simmons' value, but it certainly isn't in line with the prevailing opinion on this board. And let's keep in mind basketball is a business, and those rabid fans are the people Morey has to keep happy.

I also thought it was interesting that my friend had the same view as you about Morey keeping Simmons into the season. His take was based on what he termed Morey's stubbornness. He acknowledged that it's unlikely the Sixers will get Beal, Lillard or a comparable player. He doesn't know how Morey can settle for an incoming package centered around picks. He said there's huge pressure in Philly to win now, and while most fans will be disappointed with anything less than Lillard, Beal or Fox, he said Morey knows the disappointment will be even greater if they don't get players who can help them win this season. He doesn't see any players he or Morey would want from the Wolves other than KAT or Edwards. He said there might be some acceptance among fans of an incoming package that included Sexton from Cleveland or Haliburton and Hield from Sacramento. He said a Toronto package that included VanVleet and Siakam could be acceptable to the fan base. But so far, it doesn't appear that Haliburton, Hield or Siakam are on the table for a Simmons deal. Based on the report Cam posted, it would appear that Cleveland put Sexton on the table, which rings true based on reports we've all read before about Cleveland's general interest in moving Sexton.

[WildWolf2813]

1. I don't think he gets traded before the season starts because Morey has little to grasp of the human element of these trades. Besides, in his mind he's bringing back a top seeded Philly team that was so close to getting to the ECF. \


2. If he gets traded at all, it'll be the Kings and it'll be predicated on how they play early on.

[Lipoli390]

1. I don't think he gets traded before the season starts because Morey has little to grasp of the human element of these trades. Besides, in his mind he's bringing back a top seeded Philly team that was so close to getting to the ECF. \


2. If he gets traded at all, it'll be the Kings and it'll be predicated on how they play early on.

Wild - I think you're right about Morey.

Morey will have a hard time settling for less than he thought he would or should get for Simmons. Morey fancies himself the analytics king and that would tend to exclude, or give short shrift to, the human element - including a player's passivity and unwillingness to take shots after being pushed by coaches and fans to take those shots for years. Morey has an ego that leads him to assume he's much smarter than all the other NBA executives. He's certainly smarter than some, but not as comparatively smart as he things he is. And I'm sure Morey's arrogance has engendered a lot of resentment over the years among other NBA executives, which means there are a lot of NBA executives around the League who relish playing hard ball with him and watching him struggle. I would guess there's a particularly strong sense among NBA executives that they don't want to end up on the short end of a deal with Morey. The human element plays a major role in handling personnel and in deal-making. Morey has allowed his organization to alienate Simmons. Pathetically contrived tweets from Joel Embiid embracing Simmons after dissing him are meaningless at this point. The human element also plays a major role in negotiating with colleagues. Building trust and positive relationships with colleagues over time has a significant impact on your ability to get good deals for your organization or client.

There's a consensus around the League that Simmons isn't worth anything close to what Morey has been seeking - so much so that at least one NBA executive reportedly hung up the phone on him over the ridiculously one-sided nature of Morey's proposal. And now the list of available players around the League appears to be shrinking as the season gets closer and Simmons threatens to hold out. The rest of the League's team executives aren't as dumb as Morey assumed. They know Simmons is a terrific player, but they also know he has some fundamental flaws that limit his value. They're not going to overpay for a player the Sixers' organization WANTS to trade. They know that Morey's decision to put Simmons on the block wasn't based solely on his recent playoff performance, but on the Sixers' experience with Simmons over a period of years. They know it's not just the fact that Simmons is a really bad perimeter shooter, but the fact that he has refused to take perimeter shots in spite of encouragement to do so. They know he's a terrible free-throw shooter who hasn't improved at all in that area. They know he tends to disappear in the 4th quarter of big games. And now they know that Simmons will likely sit out. Truth is, Morey thought rival executives would value Simmons far more than Morey himself values Simmons. It turns out those rival executives aren't as dumb as Morey assumed - or put another way - that Morey isn't as smart as he thinks he is.

So Morey might be inclined to keep Simmons for the start of the season on the assumption that some other team will finally give him the sort of deal he's been seeking as they finally cave out of desperation to acquire the guy Morey is trying to get rid of. But I think Morey's ego-driven expectation will run head-long into reality. In reality, Simmons is fully committed to never playing again for the Sixers and rival executives around the League aren't as dumb as Morey thinks they are.

[Lipoli390]

The Wolves continue to have the best odds of getting Simmons according to most of the odds makers. I also predicted in this thread that the Wolves will end up with him. My prediction was based almost entirely on reports that Rosas has been the most aggressive pursuer of Simmons.

But I'm beginning to think Simmons will end up in Cleveland. Recent reports indicate that the Cavs are very interested in Simmons. I think they can make a more attractive offer built around Sexton than the Wolves unless the Wolves include KAT or Ant, which I don't see happening. I see two alternative attractive packages Cleveland could offer for Simmons:

ALTERNATIVE #1:

Cavs get Simmons

Sixers get:
- Sexton & Love
- Cavs' 2022, 24 and 26 1st-round picks (at least two unprotected)
- Houston's 2022 2nd-round pick (Will likely be top 3 in 2nd round; close to a 1st-round pick value)
- Best of own or GS's 2023 2nd-round pick

This deal would get the Sixers a high-quality, arguably elite offensive lead guard who averaged 24.5 points per game last season with a TS of 57.3%, which was almost as high as Ben's. He hit 37% of his threes, 47.5% of his FGs and 81.5% of his significant 6.4 free-throw attempts. Those are REALLY IMPRESSIVE offensive numbers. He has a tremendous motor and is only 22 years a old. He'd be a much better acquisition for the Sixers than Beasley and also better than DLO. Some may view Love as a negative, but for a championship contender with a great defensive center like Embiid, Love would likely be a positive with his rebounding, perimeter shooting and veteran savvy. His salary is huge, but after next season he'll only have one season left, which would make Love moveable. That's a good deal already for Philly. Getting three first-round picks would be major icing and Houston's 2022 2nd-round picks is an extra bonus given that it will likely be a top 3 pick in the 2nd round.

Meanwhile, the Cavs would have a really good core with Garland, Simmons, Okoro, Marrkenan, Allen and Mobley.

ALTERNATIVE #2:

Cavs get Simmons

Sixers get:
- Sexton, Rubio, Okoro
- Same three 1st-round picks as above, but maybe more protection since Philly would be getting Okoro and not Love
- Same Houston 2nd-round pick

This would be the alternative if the Sixers simply don't want Kevin Love. Okoro is a nice young defensive player who plays really hard.

I just don't see how the Wolves could compete with either package unless Rosas is willing to give up KAT or Ant. Perhaps a package with DLO and McDaniels and future picks would be competitive. But I would now give Cleveland the edge in the Simmons sweepstakes. I still have Minnesota ahead of the Raptors because I think Rosas is so motivated to get Simmons that he'll give up 4 future 1st-round picks and McDaniels. But VanVleet + Anunoby could edge out a Wolves package, depending on how many picks the Raptors are willing to give up and what protections they'd insist on.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I think Sexton struggles defensively too - he's similar to DLO in that he finds himself almost always on the wrong end of the plus/minus gods.

For the Cavs, that core would lack shooting other than Garland and Markkaen. Mobley, Okoro, Allen, Simmons....you can't have more than two of those guys on the court at the same time. I think they could be really good defensively though.