Simmons Prediction Thread

[kekgeek]

Q, I agree with you that there is no chance Rosas will give up Edwards for Simmons. And based on what I read into your posts, I think we are in agreement that this roster as currently constructed is quite unlikely to threaten to make the playoffs...again (although you may contradict this in a couple weeks when the wins prediction thread comes out). And I agree that, although I think 90% of the fan base is too high, a majority of the Wolves' fan base would be unhappy if Rosas gave up our promising 20-year-old for the best defender in the league. And that sums up one of the big problems with the Minnesota sports market...we're unabashed homers. We love, protect and overvalue our own. That's how we end up with a Ryan Saunders as a head coach! I mean really...would he have become a head coach in any other market? We're unique here, and the forgiving nature of our fan base is one of the reasons we have been arguably the worst franchise of the past 2 decades.

Maybe Ant turns out to be a terrific player, and a perennial All-Star and All-NBA Defense guy like the player Rosas won't trade him for. Maybe. Or maybe his ceiling is more at the Zach Lavine level...a flashy offensive star whose struggles on the defensive end don't allow him to consistently have a positive impact on the court. Let's look at reality right now.

1) Most of the posters here preferred Wiseman over Ant in last year's draft (for the record, I strongly preferred Ant) because of flaws Ant showed in college. And some of those flaws...poor shot selection, inefficient scoring and indifferent defense...were on display in his rookie year.

2) We talk about Ant's improvement in the second half, and he certainly did improve. But some of the tale of two halves is due to what was actually a very poor first 2 months for Ant. But was it really a great second half? He certainly scored a lot of points...23.8 per game was impressive. But although his 3-point shooting improved (and was far better than the 29% he shot in college), it still was only 34.9 %...a couple points below the average percentage for shooting guards, and his TS% the second half was only average for SGs.

3) Further, his ORtg and Drtg, while improved in the second half, were still quite poor: 108 and 117 respectively. In conttrast, Simmons ratings his rookie year were 111 and 102, and his career numbers are an impressive 113 and 105.

So you're correct...Rosas will not consider swapping the 2 former first round picks. But the numbers above are quite revealing I think. And not being willing to consider giving up Ant for Simmons defines why this franchise continues to struggle. Simmons has been all-NBA 4 of his first 5 years. Does anyone believe in five years we will make the same statement about Ant?

(I'm now going to go find shelter because I'll be facing a barrage of incoming fire for the unpardonable sin of suggesting Simmons might be better than Edwards!)

Wolves fans are homers for believing Edwards could be a special player but FNG is a rational evidence based guy that believes Simmons could improve his shooting because we are MN nice. Gotta love it.

Not exactly, monster. While I'm saying there's a chance Simmons could become a better (or more willing) shooter once he gets out of the Philly pressure cooker, he doesn't have to get better to still be an all-NBA player...he already is! Ant on the other hand needs to get much better at both ends of the court to be all-NBA, because there are plenty of no-defense inefficient wings out there competing with him. From what I've seen from Ant in college and his rookie year, I'm not convinced there's any more chance of his becoming a good defender as there is Simmons becoming a good shooter...they're both a crap shoot. Let me ask you these questions:

1) Simmons career Ortg and Drtg are 113 and 105, respectively, while Ant was almost the opposite in his rookie season... worse than Simmons on offense, much worse on defense. Do you think there is much of a chance Ant will be anywhere near 113 and 105 after his 4th season?

2) Simmons has been selected to the all NBA team in 3 of his 4 seasons. How likely do you think it is that Ant will be recognized by the experts as All Pro his next three seasons?

If you feel confident in answering both questions, then by all means keep Ant and don't bring in Simmons. But if you're not confident (as I'm not), I'm going to take the All-NBA guy every time over a guy we can only hope reaches his level.

As I've said, try to pry Simmons away from Philly for a lesser price tag. But if Ant is the ultimate price tag, Rosas would be guilty of malpractice if he didn't pull the trigger.

I want to first preface this by saying I want Simmons on the Wolves because I think he raises the Wolves ceiling and floor as a team but in no way would I give up Ant for him. I think FNG once again you are just showing Ben Simmons Ortg and Drtg numbers but giving legit no context to those numbers so let me add some context to those numbers and what should be worrying to them. All numbers that I provide will be from cleaningtheglass.com

2020-21 season:
Ben Simmons: Ortg: 114.9 (68th percentile) Drtg: 106.8 (98th percentile) Net: +8.1 (91st percentile)
Ben Simmons without Embiid on the floor: Ortg: 107.4 (21st percentile) Dtrg: 112.4 (58th percentile) Net -5 (28th percentile)
Difference in all Ben Simmons lineups and lineups without Embiid: Ortg: -7.5 Dtrg: -5.6 Net: -13.1

2019-20 season:
Ben Simmons: Ortg:110 (42nd percentile) Drtg: 108 (76th percentile) Net: +2 (65th percentile)
Ben Simmons without Embiid on the floor: Otrg: 112.1 (63rd percentile) Drtg: 109.9 (61st percentile) Net: +2.2 (66th percentile
Difference in all Ben Simmons lineups and lineups without Embiid: Ortg: +2.1 Drtg: +1.9 Net: +0.2
*This season is when they had Al Horford as their big with Embiid didn't play

2018-19 season
Ben Simmons: Ortg: 112.2 (69th percentile) Drtg: 109.8 (60th percentile) Net: +2.4 (69th percentile)
Ben SImmons without Joel EMbiid on the floor: 108.6 (38th percentile) Dtrg: 114.5 (19th percentile) Net: -5.9 (25th percentile)
Difference in all Ben Simmons lineups and Lineups without Embiid: Ortg: -3.6 Drtg: -4.7 Net: -8.3

2017-19 season
Ben Simmons Ortg: 110.5 (74th percentile) Drtg: 103.5 (90th percentile) Net: +7 (89th percentile)
Ben Simmons without Embbid on the floor: Ortg: 106.4 (37th percentile) Drtg: 107.8 (58th percentile) Net: -1.4
Difference in all Ben Simmons lineups and lineups without Embiid: Ortg: -4.1 Ortg: -4.3 Net: -8.4


So how much does the combo of Embiid and Simmons effect all of Ben Simmons Ortg and Drtg numbers. I want to say Embiid numbers are significantly worse when Simmons is not on the floor also. I am just saying the Wolves don't have that defensive stud like Embiid walking through that door (I understand Kat has improved on that side). Simmons numbers offensively and defensively are really bad when Embiid wasn't on the court with him besides the year he got to play with Horford by his side. So I still want Simmons but there is not proof that Simmons can be any better then league average when he isn't playing with Embiid (Same can be said about Embiid when compared to Simmons). I am worried that the unit Embiid and Simmons is just that good and can't be replicable anywhere else. Simmons has proved he can't carry a defensive unit when he isn't playing with embiid. I still think simmons is one of the best defenders in the game but numbers are what they are he was unable to carry a defensive unit to anything better then average when he was not playing with Embiid.

Just some context for everyone involved.

[FNG]

Monster, as an addendum to my previous post, I think we have to take a hard look at what is holding this team back...and it ain't offense. Even with an improved defensive KAT and an impressive Jaden last year, we still ranked near the bottom of the league in defense...again. And we're kidding ourselves if we think just the addition of a 32-year-old reserve (whom I like a lot by the way) is going to magically transform our defense. And frankly more minutes from Dlo and Beasley is not the formula for an improved defense...it's easier to make a case for our defense actually getting worse next season. We can do what we do every year and justify why we're going to be better on defense this year, but it's simply not going to happen without the right personnel...something Rosas has not done and adequate job of providing. And here we have a unique opportunity to bring in a player most coaches call the most dominant defender in the league. It's folly to want to keep a guy who shot 29% on threes in college while playing sub-par defense when we have a chance to add a guy like Simmons. I love Ant, but he's never going to be All-Pro as many times as Simmons will...if we're honest, we have to admit that. Rosas can't overthink this...the solution to our defensive failures is staring him in the face.

"I love Ant, but he's never going to be All-Pro as many times as Simmons will...if we're honest, we have to admit that."

Idk man for one thing Ant said he is good at football so I think he has a better chance at being "all pro" than Simmons. :)

I LOVE how confident you are in making these absolute projections and then telling people they are homers for considering anyone with the Wolves or the team as a whole taking some sort of meaningful leap.

Idk if you have looked at the Wolves stats last year but...guess what? They were actually a bad offensive team last season. Oh and the year before too. Since nothing much has changed from last season I assume you will tell us to get another hobby instead of watching the Wolves as they will be bad on that end also.

I agree that the Wolves were horrible on both offense and defense last season...25th in both I believe. But I keep hearing the main reason for our futility last season, and accordingly reason for optimism this season, was the absence of KAT, Dlo, and Beasley due to injuries and gun charges.

So the question is this: are more minutes from these three guys more likely to improve our offense or our defense? I think the answer is pretty clear. If Rosas goes into this season with the roster he currently has, I hear a lot of people here saying we could have a top 10 offense...I don't disagree. But I'm not hearing anyone credibly arguing that our defense will be even in the top half. I think we all believe this team will score. The problem is
stopping anyone. This team badly needs defense if they are going to get anywhere near .500, and I don't see then magically getting there unless Rosas can make a significant acquisition. And it seems to be there's only one guy available out there who can make us competitive. Otherwise let's get ready for another season of some highlight dunks and high fives...and 34 wins.

[FNG]

Q, I agree with you that there is no chance Rosas will give up Edwards for Simmons. And based on what I read into your posts, I think we are in agreement that this roster as currently constructed is quite unlikely to threaten to make the playoffs...again (although you may contradict this in a couple weeks when the wins prediction thread comes out). And I agree that, although I think 90% of the fan base is too high, a majority of the Wolves' fan base would be unhappy if Rosas gave up our promising 20-year-old for the best defender in the league. And that sums up one of the big problems with the Minnesota sports market...we're unabashed homers. We love, protect and overvalue our own. That's how we end up with a Ryan Saunders as a head coach! I mean really...would he have become a head coach in any other market? We're unique here, and the forgiving nature of our fan base is one of the reasons we have been arguably the worst franchise of the past 2 decades.

Maybe Ant turns out to be a terrific player, and a perennial All-Star and All-NBA Defense guy like the player Rosas won't trade him for. Maybe. Or maybe his ceiling is more at the Zach Lavine level...a flashy offensive star whose struggles on the defensive end don't allow him to consistently have a positive impact on the court. Let's look at reality right now.

1) Most of the posters here preferred Wiseman over Ant in last year's draft (for the record, I strongly preferred Ant) because of flaws Ant showed in college. And some of those flaws...poor shot selection, inefficient scoring and indifferent defense...were on display in his rookie year.

2) We talk about Ant's improvement in the second half, and he certainly did improve. But some of the tale of two halves is due to what was actually a very poor first 2 months for Ant. But was it really a great second half? He certainly scored a lot of points...23.8 per game was impressive. But although his 3-point shooting improved (and was far better than the 29% he shot in college), it still was only 34.9 %...a couple points below the average percentage for shooting guards, and his TS% the second half was only average for SGs.

3) Further, his ORtg and Drtg, while improved in the second half, were still quite poor: 108 and 117 respectively. In conttrast, Simmons ratings his rookie year were 111 and 102, and his career numbers are an impressive 113 and 105.

So you're correct...Rosas will not consider swapping the 2 former first round picks. But the numbers above are quite revealing I think. And not being willing to consider giving up Ant for Simmons defines why this franchise continues to struggle. Simmons has been all-NBA 4 of his first 5 years. Does anyone believe in five years we will make the same statement about Ant?

(I'm now going to go find shelter because I'll be facing a barrage of incoming fire for the unpardonable sin of suggesting Simmons might be better than Edwards!)

Wolves fans are homers for believing Edwards could be a special player but FNG is a rational evidence based guy that believes Simmons could improve his shooting because we are MN nice. Gotta love it.

Not exactly, monster. While I'm saying there's a chance Simmons could become a better (or more willing) shooter once he gets out of the Philly pressure cooker, he doesn't have to get better to still be an all-NBA player...he already is! Ant on the other hand needs to get much better at both ends of the court to be all-NBA, because there are plenty of no-defense inefficient wings out there competing with him. From what I've seen from Ant in college and his rookie year, I'm not convinced there's any more chance of his becoming a good defender as there is Simmons becoming a good shooter...they're both a crap shoot. Let me ask you these questions:

1) Simmons career Ortg and Drtg are 113 and 105, respectively, while Ant was almost the opposite in his rookie season... worse than Simmons on offense, much worse on defense. Do you think there is much of a chance Ant will be anywhere near 113 and 105 after his 4th season?

2) Simmons has been selected to the all NBA team in 3 of his 4 seasons. How likely do you think it is that Ant will be recognized by the experts as All Pro his next three seasons?

If you feel confident in answering both questions, then by all means keep Ant and don't bring in Simmons. But if you're not confident (as I'm not), I'm going to take the All-NBA guy every time over a guy we can only hope reaches his level.

As I've said, try to pry Simmons away from Philly for a lesser price tag. But if Ant is the ultimate price tag, Rosas would be guilty of malpractice if he didn't pull the trigger.

I want to first preface this by saying I want Simmons on the Wolves because I think he raises the Wolves ceiling and floor as a team but in no way would I give up Ant for him. I think FNG once again you are just showing Ben Simmons Ortg and Drtg numbers but giving legit no context to those numbers so let me add some context to those numbers and what should be worrying to them. All numbers that I provide will be from cleaningtheglass.com

2020-21 season:
Ben Simmons: Ortg: 114.9 (68th percentile) Drtg: 106.8 (98th percentile) Net: +8.1 (91st percentile)
Ben Simmons without Embiid on the floor: Ortg: 107.4 (21st percentile) Dtrg: 112.4 (58th percentile) Net -5 (28th percentile)
Difference in all Ben Simmons lineups and lineups without Embiid: Ortg: -7.5 Dtrg: -5.6 Net: -13.1

2019-20 season:
Ben Simmons: Ortg:110 (42nd percentile) Drtg: 108 (76th percentile) Net: +2 (65th percentile)
Ben Simmons without Embiid on the floor: Otrg: 112.1 (63rd percentile) Drtg: 109.9 (61st percentile) Net: +2.2 (66th percentile
Difference in all Ben Simmons lineups and lineups without Embiid: Ortg: +2.1 Drtg: +1.9 Net: +0.2
*This season is when they had Al Horford as their big with Embiid didn't play

2018-19 season
Ben Simmons: Ortg: 112.2 (69th percentile) Drtg: 109.8 (60th percentile) Net: +2.4 (69th percentile)
Ben SImmons without Joel EMbiid on the floor: 108.6 (38th percentile) Dtrg: 114.5 (19th percentile) Net: -5.9 (25th percentile)
Difference in all Ben Simmons lineups and Lineups without Embiid: Ortg: -3.6 Drtg: -4.7 Net: -8.3

2017-19 season
Ben Simmons Ortg: 110.5 (74th percentile) Drtg: 103.5 (90th percentile) Net: +7 (89th percentile)
Ben Simmons without Embbid on the floor: Ortg: 106.4 (37th percentile) Drtg: 107.8 (58th percentile) Net: -1.4
Difference in all Ben Simmons lineups and lineups without Embiid: Ortg: -4.1 Ortg: -4.3 Net: -8.4


So how much does the combo of Embiid and Simmons effect all of Ben Simmons Ortg and Drtg numbers. I want to say Embiid numbers are significantly worse when Simmons is not on the floor also. I am just saying the Wolves don't have that defensive stud like Embiid walking through that door (I understand Kat has improved on that side). Simmons numbers offensively and defensively are really bad when Embiid wasn't on the court with him besides the year he got to play with Horford by his side. So I still want Simmons but there is not proof that Simmons can be any better then league average when he isn't playing with Embiid (Same can be said about Embiid when compared to Simmons). I am worried that the unit Embiid and Simmons is just that good and can't be replicable anywhere else. Simmons has proved he can't carry a defensive unit when he isn't playing with embiid. I still think simmons is one of the best defenders in the game but numbers are what they are he was unable to carry a defensive unit to anything better then average when he was not playing with Embiid.

Just some context for everyone involved.

Good stuff, kek...I'm a fan of cleaning the glass too. While KAT and Embiid are quite different in style, it would be difficult to say either is much better than the other...they help their teams in different ways. Perhaps it would be interesting to compare Simmons without Embiid to Ant without KAT. I would suspect that both Simmons and Ant would be much less effective missing their best teammate, but I would bet that Simmons' numbers without Embiid would dwarf Ant's without KAT. Maybe someone can do the research and show me I'm wrong.

Bottom line is I'll take the 25-year-old 3 time All-NBA player all day over an interesting prospect who finished behind LaMelo Ball in the ROY vote despite Ball missing half the season. Again, I'd be happier to get Simmons without giving up our promising rookie, but I don't see it happening.

[Monster]

Recently this thread has been quite amusing. That's good because Lip just isn't making me laugh like he used too. I believe in us though. :)

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Monster, as an addendum to my previous post, I think we have to take a hard look at what is holding this team back...and it ain't offense. Even with an improved defensive KAT and an impressive Jaden last year, we still ranked near the bottom of the league in defense...again. And we're kidding ourselves if we think just the addition of a 32-year-old reserve (whom I like a lot by the way) is going to magically transform our defense. And frankly more minutes from Dlo and Beasley is not the formula for an improved defense...it's easier to make a case for our defense actually getting worse next season. We can do what we do every year and justify why we're going to be better on defense this year, but it's simply not going to happen without the right personnel...something Rosas has not done and adequate job of providing. And here we have a unique opportunity to bring in a player most coaches call the most dominant defender in the league. It's folly to want to keep a guy who shot 29% on threes in college while playing sub-par defense when we have a chance to add a guy like Simmons. I love Ant, but he's never going to be All-Pro as many times as Simmons will...if we're honest, we have to admit that. Rosas can't overthink this...the solution to our defensive failures is staring him in the face.

Are you positive about this? You are making a lot of declarative statements about Ant based on one year in college and one year in the NBA.

As for Simmons, even his great defense isn't played in a vacuum. We don't really know how impactful he will be playing next to the likes of KAT vs. Embiid.

I'm as concerned about our defense as the next guy, but not to the point where I'd be willing to give up a potentially transcendent talent to get him on board. But if you are totally convinced that Ant will simply be DLO 2.0, then yeah, I could see why you would be willing to trade him.

Edit: I just saw that others have been responding in even more detail!

[FNG]

Monster, as an addendum to my previous post, I think we have to take a hard look at what is holding this team back...and it ain't offense. Even with an improved defensive KAT and an impressive Jaden last year, we still ranked near the bottom of the league in defense...again. And we're kidding ourselves if we think just the addition of a 32-year-old reserve (whom I like a lot by the way) is going to magically transform our defense. And frankly more minutes from Dlo and Beasley is not the formula for an improved defense...it's easier to make a case for our defense actually getting worse next season. We can do what we do every year and justify why we're going to be better on defense this year, but it's simply not going to happen without the right personnel...something Rosas has not done and adequate job of providing. And here we have a unique opportunity to bring in a player most coaches call the most dominant defender in the league. It's folly to want to keep a guy who shot 29% on threes in college while playing sub-par defense when we have a chance to add a guy like Simmons. I love Ant, but he's never going to be All-Pro as many times as Simmons will...if we're honest, we have to admit that. Rosas can't overthink this...the solution to our defensive failures is staring him in the face.

Are you positive about this? You are making a lot of declarative statements about Ant based on one year in college and one year in the NBA.

As for Simmons, even his great defense isn't played in a vacuum. We don't really know how impactful he will be playing next to the likes of KAT vs. Embiid.

I'm as concerned about our defense as the next guy, but not to the point where I'd be willing to give up a potentially transcendent talent to get him on board. But if you are totally convinced that Ant will simply be DLO 2.0, then yeah, I could see why you would be willing to trade him.

Edit: I just saw that others have been responding in even more detail!

I don't think anyone can be positive about anything, Q (except for possibly that the Wolves will find a way to underachieve our expectations year after year ;) ), but if I had to bet whether Ant will be all-NBA each of his next 3 seasons as Simmons was in years 2-4, I would bet no. Doesn't mean he won't or that I don't think he is an exciting prospect and fun to watch. And sure, perhaps his style of play and results in college and his rookie year are not indicative of what we can expect of him. Maybe he becomes a lockdown defender and smart efficient scorer. Maybe. I mean we're Wolves fans, so we have to be satisfied with "maybe", right? But I'm a little tired of waiting for our prospects to become all that we want them to be, and would prefer to take someone who has been an All-Star all of his years in the NBA except his rookie year, and who is the consensus best defender in the NBA. Sure, having Embiid on the court for the 52 games per year he averages will make anyone a better defender...but it's Simmons who the experts say is the best defender in the league, not Embiid. Maybe it's Simmons that makes Joel better. A near 7 footer who can capably shut down the best player on the other team is going to be valuable no matter who he has on the court with him. No, I don't think the Wolves' defense will be as good as Philly's as long as Dlo and Beasley are getting significant minutes, but the idea of three mobile near 7 footers in the frontcourt has to intrigue anyone. And I see little drop off in offense with a starting lineup of KAT, Simmons, Jaden, Beasley and Dlo...4 above average 3-point shooters (3 of whom are a threat to put up 20 on any given night) combined with an elite distributor like Simmons is going to be a potent offense.

I understand how much Ant is valued here...I value him too. And I get that many of you are ready to make your predictions for a 17-25 win increase over last year with the roster Rosas has put together. I'm much more willing to go with the sure thing though than bet on meteoric improvement from our rookie....I would prefer to go with the known commodity, who regularly is a key (if not the main) contributor to 50-win teams.

Comparing a perennial all-NBA player to an exciting prospect is an interesting discussion, and I can see arguments on either side. I just happen to fall on the side of taking the known commodity.

[Coolbreeze44]

I was reading Jon K's mailbag today and he said the two players he is hearing about the most in terms of improvement are Jaden and DLO. Apparently DLO is mentally locked in and looking good in workouts. But I'm really excited to hear Jaden continues to impress. Going to be a fun year I believe.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Here we are talking about Anthony Edwards as part of a trade for Ben Simmons yet again. It's not happening. Gersson Rosas won't offer him nor will the market force his hand to increase the offer to that magnitude. What is being offered to Philadelphia that would make Rosas need to include Edwards? Answer that.

I'll say it one more time. Edwards' trade value as a 20-year old potential All-Star playing on a rookie contract is higher than Ben Simmons' is right now. Period.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Here we are talking about Anthony Edwards as part of a trade for Ben Simmons yet again. It's not happening. Gersson Rosas won't offer him nor will the market force his hand to increase the offer to that magnitude. What is being offered to Philadelphia that would make Rosas need to include Edwards? Answer that.

I'll say it one more time. Edwards' trade value as a 20-year old potential All-Star playing on a rookie contract is higher than Ben Simmons' is right now. Period.

Agreed. So what do you think Ant's market value is? For example, could Ant + Prince + Beverley land Lillard? I'm not even sure I'd make that trade, but trying to get a handle on Ant's market value.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Here we are talking about Anthony Edwards as part of a trade for Ben Simmons yet again. It's not happening. Gersson Rosas won't offer him nor will the market force his hand to increase the offer to that magnitude. What is being offered to Philadelphia that would make Rosas need to include Edwards? Answer that.

I'll say it one more time. Edwards' trade value as a 20-year old potential All-Star playing on a rookie contract is higher than Ben Simmons' is right now. Period.

Agreed. So what do you think Ant's market value is? For example, could Ant + Prince + Beverley land Lillard? I'm not even sure I'd make that trade, but trying to get a handle on Ant's market value.

I'd say Anthony Edwards is the ideal return or at least the ideal centerpiece for any of the teams wanting trade to trade their star player in the future. Damian Lillard, Bradley Beal, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, etc. Obviously, none of those teams are wanting to part with their players currently, and the Wolves have no reason to part with Edwards either, but his trade value is high enough to get a trade started for almost any star in the league. The same would apply for Cade Cunningham and possibly even Jalen Green, assuming both players perform as expected this season.