Q-was-here wrote:Was Gordon Hayward a star just before he left Utah? I would say he definitely qualified as a tier II star. Well, exit Gordon Hayward and enter Donovan Mitchell. Basically the Jazz don't miss a beat. Now we can quibble about Michell's shortcomings as a player and team mate, but on paper, he most certainly would be considered a "star" and has been selected to the all-star team three times.
My broader point is that if a Hayward/Gobert/Favors trio or Mitchell/Gobert/Conley trio can't get to the Conference Finals, then I find that a good point of comparison in the event an Ant/KAT/Gobert trio can't do it either. Since KAT is clearly more valuable than either Favors or Conley and Gobert is still Rudy Gobert, then the only way this doesn't work is if Ant stagnates and never even reaches a Hayward or Mitchell level of production and efficiency.
It all comes down to Ant yet again! He's the X-factor here.
You also have DLo. Hit or miss on the night, but can fill it up. Not many teams can hang their hat on a talent of DLo as their fourth best player.
KAT is better than any of the other 2 players you mentioned in the scenarios. Ant is very close.
Q-was-here wrote:Was Gordon Hayward a star just before he left Utah? I would say he definitely qualified as a tier II star. Well, exit Gordon Hayward and enter Donovan Mitchell. Basically the Jazz don't miss a beat. Now we can quibble about Michell's shortcomings as a player and team mate, but on paper, he most certainly would be considered a "star" and has been selected to the all-star team three times.
My broader point is that if a Hayward/Gobert/Favors trio or Mitchell/Gobert/Conley trio can't get to the Conference Finals, then I find that a good point of comparison in the event an Ant/KAT/Gobert trio can't do it either. Since KAT is clearly more valuable than either Favors or Conley and Gobert is still Rudy Gobert, then the only way this doesn't work is if Ant stagnates and never even reaches a Hayward or Mitchell level of production and efficiency.
It all comes down to Ant yet again! He's the X-factor here.
You also have DLo. Hit or miss on the night, but can fill it up. Not many teams can hang their hat on a talent of DLo as their fourth best player.
KAT is better than any of the other 2 players you mentioned in the scenarios. Ant is very close.
That's right. I kind of look at our current top 7 versus the Utah top 7 of last season:
Gobert = Gobert
KAT >>>> Bogdanovic
Jaden < O'Neale
Ant < Mitchell
DLO < Conley
Nowell = Clarkson (Nowell posted better advanced stats but Clarkson played a more prominent role)
Anderson < Whiteside (Whiteside was a pretty damn good Gobert Lite in his minutes)
I think KAT is so much better than Bogdanovic that it probably nullifies the other advantages that the Utah players have over their counterparts. If Ant eventually equals or surpasses Mitchell and Jaden just equals O'Neale, then lookout. That would be a 55+ win team in all likelihood....not sure it will happen this season though.
Q-was-here wrote:Was Gordon Hayward a star just before he left Utah? I would say he definitely qualified as a tier II star. Well, exit Gordon Hayward and enter Donovan Mitchell. Basically the Jazz don't miss a beat. Now we can quibble about Michell's shortcomings as a player and team mate, but on paper, he most certainly would be considered a "star" and has been selected to the all-star team three times.
My broader point is that if a Hayward/Gobert/Favors trio or Mitchell/Gobert/Conley trio can't get to the Conference Finals, then I find that a good point of comparison in the event an Ant/KAT/Gobert trio can't do it either. Since KAT is clearly more valuable than either Favors or Conley and Gobert is still Rudy Gobert, then the only way this doesn't work is if Ant stagnates and never even reaches a Hayward or Mitchell level of production and efficiency.
It all comes down to Ant yet again! He's the X-factor here.
You also have DLo. Hit or miss on the night, but can fill it up. Not many teams can hang their hat on a talent of DLo as their fourth best player.
KAT is better than any of the other 2 players you mentioned in the scenarios. Ant is very close.
That's right. I kind of look at our current top 7 versus the Utah top 7 of last season:
Gobert = Gobert
KAT >>>> Bogdanovic
Jaden < O'Neale
Ant < Mitchell
DLO < Conley
Nowell = Clarkson (Nowell posted better advanced stats but Clarkson played a more prominent role)
Anderson < Whiteside (Whiteside was a pretty damn good Gobert Lite in his minutes)
I think KAT is so much better than Bogdanovic that it probably nullifies the other advantages that the Utah players have over their counterparts. If Ant eventually equals or surpasses Mitchell and Jaden just equals O'Neale, then lookout. That would be a 55+ win team in all likelihood....not sure it will happen this season though.
The gap between Mitchell and Edwards MIGHT not be that vast even now if Edwards is actually a better defender.
What doesn't show up in that comparison is size. EVERY player on the wolves starters is significantly bigger/longer than the player on Utah. Size isn't everything but that much at 4 positions is not a small thing.
Q-was-here wrote:Was Gordon Hayward a star just before he left Utah? I would say he definitely qualified as a tier II star. Well, exit Gordon Hayward and enter Donovan Mitchell. Basically the Jazz don't miss a beat. Now we can quibble about Michell's shortcomings as a player and team mate, but on paper, he most certainly would be considered a "star" and has been selected to the all-star team three times.
My broader point is that if a Hayward/Gobert/Favors trio or Mitchell/Gobert/Conley trio can't get to the Conference Finals, then I find that a good point of comparison in the event an Ant/KAT/Gobert trio can't do it either. Since KAT is clearly more valuable than either Favors or Conley and Gobert is still Rudy Gobert, then the only way this doesn't work is if Ant stagnates and never even reaches a Hayward or Mitchell level of production and efficiency.
It all comes down to Ant yet again! He's the X-factor here.
You also have DLo. Hit or miss on the night, but can fill it up. Not many teams can hang their hat on a talent of DLo as their fourth best player.
KAT is better than any of the other 2 players you mentioned in the scenarios. Ant is very close.
That's right. I kind of look at our current top 7 versus the Utah top 7 of last season:
Gobert = Gobert
KAT >>>> Bogdanovic
Jaden < O'Neale
Ant < Mitchell
DLO < Conley
Nowell = Clarkson (Nowell posted better advanced stats but Clarkson played a more prominent role)
Anderson < Whiteside (Whiteside was a pretty damn good Gobert Lite in his minutes)
I think KAT is so much better than Bogdanovic that it probably nullifies the other advantages that the Utah players have over their counterparts. If Ant eventually equals or surpasses Mitchell and Jaden just equals O'Neale, then lookout. That would be a 55+ win team in all likelihood....not sure it will happen this season though.
The gap between Mitchell and Edwards MIGHT not be that vast even now if Edwards is actually a better defender.
What doesn't show up in that comparison is size. EVERY player on the wolves starters is significantly bigger/longer than the player on Utah. Size isn't everything but that much at 4 positions is not a small thing.
Yeah, I was just about to type what Monster typed about Ant/Mitchell. I wanted to dispute Q's Mitchell>Ant conclusion, but ultimately decided that would be homerism...despite his poor defense, Mitchell had a better season last year. But we're talking about next season, and I would not be surprised to see this board conclude that Ant>Mitchell come next June...and I agree with Monster that could lead to 55 wins.
The good news on Ant and Mitchell is that it's not a big advantage for Mitchell. He carries a higher work rate at a higher efficiency level and sets more guys up, but it's like a half tier ahead of Ant since Edwards makes up for some of the offensive shortfall with better defense.
The Wolves are bigger/longer thing doesn't matter a ton if it doesn't translate on the floor. For example, McDaniels is super long for a starting SF, but he's a mediocre rebounder and ends up fouling people too much. And you would think Ant could give us more on the glass given his size and strength for a guard. I'm a little disappointed tbh in that aspect of his game.
Bottom line is that if none of our existing players improve beyond the margins, our team is probably about as good as the Jazz were last year, which coincidentally equated to about what Vegas is telling us our win total should be!
I don't remember Rudy Gobert having Karl-Anthony Towns next to him in Utah...
And while Anthony Edwards is at least comparable to Donovan Mitchell at this time, Bojan Bogdanovic isn't even in the same stratosphere as a player in relation to Towns.
The Timberwolves arguably have three top-30 players this season -- plus whatever they get from a strong supporting cast. The Jazz were missing that third significant piece. Frankly, Minnesota is built better right now than Utah ever was over the past decade.
Q-was-here wrote:The good news on Ant and Mitchell is that it's not a big advantage for Mitchell. He carries a higher work rate at a higher efficiency level and sets more guys up, but it's like a half tier ahead of Ant since Edwards makes up for some of the offensive shortfall with better defense.
The Wolves are bigger/longer thing doesn't matter a ton if it doesn't translate on the floor. For example, McDaniels is super long for a starting SF, but he's a mediocre rebounder and ends up fouling people too much. And you would think Ant could give us more on the glass given his size and strength for a guard. I'm a little disappointed tbh in that aspect of his game.
Bottom line is that if none of our existing players improve beyond the margins, our team is probably about as good as the Jazz were last year, which coincidentally equated to about what Vegas is telling us our win total should be!
Just for fun I will add that if we are comparing last year to this coming season Royce O'Neal actually rebounded at a lower rate per 36 than McDaniels. Ultimately we could say they were pretty even last year. That was a dip from O'Neal's career numbers and I have no idea why that happened but it did.
Camden wrote:I don't remember Rudy Gobert having Karl-Anthony Towns next to him in Utah...
And while Anthony Edwards is at least comparable to Donovan Mitchell at this time, Bojan Bogdanovic isn't even in the same stratosphere as a player in relation to Towns.
The Timberwolves arguably have three top-30 players this season -- plus whatever they get from a strong supporting cast. The Jazz were missing that third significant piece. Frankly, Minnesota is built better right now than Utah ever was over the past decade.
I hear you Cam and I think my analysis above takes KAT's superiority over Bogdanovic into consideration. The problem is Utah built a pretty strong supporting cast. You probably disagree, but I think Conley was a better PG last year than DLO was. O'Neal was more effective than McDaniels and Whiteside was extremely productive as a backup C - certainly more productive than any of our role playing bigs.
Now I believe we have a brighter future than last year's Utah squad because guys like Ant, McDaniels, and Nowell still have runway to improve further whereas their comparables on Utah are pretty much are what they are.
To get Gobert, the Wolves gave up three rotation players and five first round picks - Kessler and 4 future picks. All the future picks are unprotected except for minimal top-5 protection on the 2029 pick. I think that was too much. But if you think that's bad, remember that the Wolves lost 5 first-round picks and received nothing in return as League punishment for the Joe Smith deal:
What still pisses me off about that debacle is the fact that lots of teams were doing what the Wolves did with Joe Smith back then and teams are still doing it. Does anyone really believe the Sixers didn't make an under-the-table commitment to Harden as part of him agreeing to a discounted contract this summer? Does anyone believe the Knicks didn't have contract discussions with Brunson before the free-agency period this summer in violation of League rules? The whole world knows it and it wouldn't take much investigation to find out the truth.
There were three reasons the Wolves were singled out and punished so severely. First, the Wolves front office and ownership were dumb enough to put the "illegal" agreement with Joe Smith in writing. Seriously, it doesn't get much dumber than that. Second, Joe Smith had a falling out with his agent, which prompted his outgoing agent to rat on him by disclosing the deal. Third, David Stern saw the Wolves as easy an easy mark to bring the hammer down on because the Timberwolves have never had the clout of the big-market teams like the Lakers, Knicks or Sixers. Does anyone really believe the Lakers or Knicks would have been punished that severely if they had done the same thing?
As we can all see, the Wolves were victimized by their own incompetence and the organization's typical extraordinary bad luck.
