Ben Simmons Talk Revived

[Duke13]

Anyone know who Spike Eskin is?? I had never heard of him until a couple months ago, he was on Zach Lowe's pod after the Sixers playoff lose. I was super impressed with him. I googled him after listening, he was recently hired as VP of Programmjng for Wfan, not bad. He's a huge Sixers fan. Has a podcast himself, "Rights To Ricky Sanchez Podcast". His dad is Howard Eskin, longtime Philly radio host and sports writer. If interested would be worth listening to his pod for a Sixers perspective. He seems well informed, and plugged it.

[KG4Ever]

Beyond the five teams mentioned, I think Atlanta, Portand (While Philly wants Dame, Portland may be open to building a package around McCollum) and Cleveland (Sexton and a big) have been mentioned as possible suitors. There could be other teams, especially if this drags out into the season. For instance once Lowry's contract is available to be traded, Miami could package Lowry, Herro and picks, though I'm not sure if this would interest Miami, but we do know that Philly values Lowry.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

This is a very minor talking point, but does Buddy Hield move the needle in a trade package more than Harrison Barnes? I'm not so sure. I think Barnes is actually the slightly better asset given that he's essentially the same age as Hield, but on a slightly cheaper contract with one less year remaining. He's also better defensively with more positional versatility. Hield is better offensively and is a more lethal outside shooter, but I think Barnes would actually be more attractive in a trade for Philadelphia than Hield would be, especially when you account for what players are currently on that roster -- namely Seth Curry, Tobias Harris, and Joel Embiid. I could be wrong, though.

And it matters little since Ben Simmons will end up in Minnesota. ;)

[Monster]

Listening to NBA radio yesterday, they had an insider on who said the Simmons/Sixers bond was broken beyond the point of return. Simmons won't report if he's not traded.

I'm with Monster, I wouldn't trade Ant for Zion, though my reasoning is mostly health based. Would I trade Ant for Simmons straight up? That's a really hard one for me, but I think Simmons makes us a contender whereas we have hope for someday being a contender with Ant. I think I would do it.

Ah good point about Zion's health...I suppose that was monster's angle too.

Correct.

Also Zion wasn't exactly a good defender his rookie year either. This is a testament to his success scoring the ball and also a concern but guess who takes fewer shots outside the paint than Ben Simmons?

[Monster]

This is a very minor talking point, but does Buddy Hield move the needle in a trade package more than Harrison Barnes? I'm not so sure. I think Barnes is actually the slightly better asset given that he's essentially the same age as Hield, but on a slightly cheaper contract with one less year remaining. He's also better defensively with more positional versatility. Hield is better offensively and is a more lethal outside shooter, but I think Barnes would actually be more attractive in a trade for Philadelphia than Hield would be, especially when you account for what players are currently on that roster -- namely Seth Curry, Tobias Harris, and Joel Embiid. I could be wrong, though.

And it matters little since Ben Simmons will end up in Minnesota. ;)

Yep I said something very similar yesterday. I will say that I could see Buddy being the better trade asset though. Teams LOVE shooting.

[Coolbreeze44]

Cam, I would say their leverage decreases unless they can somehow get teams involved in a bidding war. If that happens it's really hard to say what kind of deal they can execute.

Right, and the extent of a bidding war is difficult to project, but we do know there are roughly five serious suitors for Ben Simmons -- Minnesota, Sacramento, San Antonio, Toronto, and Golden State. There's likely another that we'll refer to as a mystery team. How much are any of those teams willing to offer given the circumstances Philadelphia finds themselves in? I'd argue that all of them have a limit as to what they'll include in a trade package.

- Minnesota: Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, and D'Angelo Russell
- Sacramento: De'Aaron Fox, Richaun Holmes
- San Antonio: Dejounte Murray or Derrick White
- Toronto: Pascal Siakam
- Golden State: Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green -- and two of James Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga, and Moses Moody

These are the assets that the interested teams just will not offer, in my opinion. Outside of all of that, we're looking at some combination of role players, young players, and picks.

Toronto's arguably offered the most win-now package of the bunch and were shot down. How much higher are they willing to go? Does Simmons, Siakam and pieces make them a contender?

San Antonio would be left with Simmons and one of Murray and White plus rebuilding pieces. Are they ready to contend after a deal is made?

Golden State could offer a bevy of assets, but none of them are win-now assets and it appears they're more motivated to wait for other big fish to become available anyways. I tend to believe the reports that they don't want to pair Simmons with Draymond Green, for what it's worth.

That leaves Minnesota, Sacramento, and a mystery team as the teams that are most aggressive in their pursuit for Simmons. The first two could theoretically get into a bidding war, but both are likely to draw the line at their current lead guards. At that point, Philadelphia is just going to have to pick the pool of assets they find more attractive. There will be a limit that bidders just won't exceed in my view.

Cam - I agree with Cool's point about a possible bidding war as the wild card that can drive up Simmons otherwise depressed market value. I think your analysis of the potential suitors and their trade perimeters is solid. Like you, I see this coming down to a contest between Sacramento and Minnesota with a potential mystery team emerging. However, I could also see Philly pivoting back to the Toronto deal centered around VanVleet and Anunoby. I think that was the deal to take before Morey overplayed his hand. The question is whether the Raptors would still be willing to make that deal and whether Toronto would be willing to up the ante slightly. Perhaps Toronto could reduce the protection on the 1st-round pick they purportedly offered and/or include a one or two 2nd-round picks. I do think Sacramento will raise the ante to include Hield instead of Barnes and add Bagley to the package.

At the end of the day, I still believe Philly will opt for the deal that they believe will help them the most this upcoming season. Which of the following player packages would do the most to help the Sixers win this coming season?

1. Beasley + Beverley or Prince + McDaniels
2. Haliburton + Hield + Bagley
3. VanVleet + Anunoby

From a Sixers's win-now standpoint, I'd rank them best to worst as (1) VanVleet/Anunoby; (2) Haliburton/Hield/Bagley; and (3) Beasley/Beverley/McDaniels. From an overall value standpoint, the Wolves could theoretically offer the best package by simply adding more future picks with less protection and maybe by also including Naz. But right now, I think it's more likely that Simmons ends up in Sacramento or Toronto than in Minnesota. Nevertheless, I won't be surprised if he ends up in Minnesota, depending on how much Morey is willing to wait a year and bank on using future picks to acquire Beal or Lillard. And if the Wolves ultimately offer DLO with McDaniels and picks, then I have little doubt that Simmons will end up here.

My prognostication is based on highly theoretical, largely uninformed analysis and should not be relied upon for anything other than fodder for dialogue and disagreement. :)

Lip, I like that Sacramento deal from a Sixers perspective. I think that would be a nice return at this point in the game. I want Simmons as much as Rosas does, and I'd give up anybody besides KAT. Ant would have to be a 1 for 1 as far as I'm concerned. After that, we have a number of combinations to offer. I'm happy that Rosas is exploring all avenues.

[KG4Ever]

Wolves are now up to second favorite by oddsmakers to land Simmons after Golden State.

[Crazysauce]

I can't believe any of you would entertain an Edwards for Simmons swap. That is crazy. Not a chance would I include Edwards. Also not sure if you guys had heard but Edwards has grown 2 inches in the offseason and is now at 6 foot 6. Also we are odds on favorites in some websites such as this one...

https://www.sportsline.com/nba/news/ben-simmons-nba-trade-odds-update-timberwolves-kings-trail-blazers-warriors-lead-favored-destinations-for-sixers-all-star/

It's happening!!!!!! But please guys don't lose your minds. Any Simmons deal for Edwards is a hard no.

[Crazysauce]

Also Edward told Finch don't let me get to 6 foot 6 or I'll be Michael Jordan. And here we are.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Thoughts:

- Oklahoma City scares me. They could be a mystery team that hasn't been reported yet. The Thunder have an ungodly amount of draft picks they could throw at Philadelphia.

- I don't think Portland is entertaining any more talks with Philadelphia concerning Ben Simmons. I felt that way after they made the move for Larry Nance Jr. and I think they're prepared to run it back with this group one more time.