khans2k5 wrote:KG4Ever wrote:crazy-canuck wrote:60WinTim wrote:Could this be it?
Keith Smith @KeithSmithNBA
1h1 hour ago
Hearing that the Miami Heat have made the Minnesota Timberwolves their "last, best offer." And that "They (Minnesota) know where we are at. This could and should be done by now. The season starts in a week."
Miami has made a couple of these last best offers. Riley is using social media to pressure taylor into a bad move.
If Miami offers Richardson, it may be the best deal we can get. Its hilarious of the reports that we are talking with Houston, as they have nothing better than Richardson that they would ever offer us. Wolves need a deal and Miami doesn't (if they think the Wolves ask is too high). Just accept Richardson, Whiteside and a protected 1st and call it a night.
You don't just make a deal just to make a deal. That's a horrible trade to accept. We'd be better off letting Jimmy walk for nothing than that atrocity.
Taking that deal with Whiteside has two problems. First, it would bring a malcontent to a team that is ill-equipped to deal with bad attitudes. Second, it would be highly problematic from a salary perspective next year. If we did that deal, we would start next season with 9 roster players totaling about $121.46M in guaranteed salaries assuming we keep Patton and keep Tyus at his qualifying offer level. The luxury tax threshold is currently around $123.7 million and it's not likely to go up a lot. So we'd be within about $3 million of the luxury tax threshold with 5 roster spots to fill. Depending on how much the luxury tax threshold goes up, we might be able to barely stay under the tax threshold by filling out the rest of the roster with minimum salary vets, but it would be tight. Moreover, we'd be unable to use our MLE or LLE salary cap exceptions and stay under the tax threshold. It's highly unlikely we could trade Teague or Wiggins and end up with a lower payroll given salary match requirements. Any team with cap room to absorb those salaries likely woudn't give up anything valuable in return.
I'd be OK dealing Butler and Gorgui for Richardson, Tyler Johnson and Miami's 2019 1st round pick. That deal would leave us with a total guaranteed payroll next season of $113.61 million. That would leave us with some room to manueuver and allow us to use our MLE. Whether you find this deal acceptable or not depends on how much you value Richardson and to some extent Tyler Johnson. I have a pretty high opinion of Richardson as solid wing who is young and has potential to become very good developing in tandem with KAT. Tyler Johnson would bring much-needed proven 3-point shooting to our cadre of wings. The 1st rd pick, likely in the 20s, would be icing for me but not essential.
Some people seem to forget that Butler's trade value ultimately turns on what other teams are willing to give up under the current circumstances, not on his abilities or projected contributions as a player. Other teams obviously look at the risk he won't re-sign next summer, his age, how much it will likely cost to re-sign him next summer, the risk of injury given his injury history, and the risk to team chemistry given Butler's history alienating teammates. They also look at the Wolves alternatives to gauge how much they need to give up. That's the reality of the Butler trade calculus.
As for letting Butler walk, that's not a reasonable option in my view. Even with his salary gone, we'd still have a roughly $84.3 million guaranteed payroll next season tied up in only 7 roster players. That means we'd have about $20 million in cap space to spend on free agents. I can't think of a single elite young free agent who would sign here, much less for only $20 million per year. The question is whether we could sign a 25 year old or younger wing as good and talented as J. Richardson for 3+ years at around $10 million per year. I don't think we could.
In more general terms, here's the salient question the Wolves's organization has to ask in evaluating trade options: Are the players being offered for Butler better over the long term for this organization building around KAT than the players we could likely sign as free agents next summer with the roughly $20 million in cap space we'd get just letting Butler walk? I think it's unlikely we'd be able to sign players as good and as good a fit for this team as J. Richardson, T. Harris and Covington. I'm guessing that Pat Riley and other NBA GMs have reached the same conclusion.
As I said from the beginning, the best hope for the Wolves to maximize the return value for Butler was to get multiple teams in a competitive bidding situation. You would hope that a team like the Sixers, sensing the Wolves were about to do a deal with Miami for Richardson would add a sweetener to package with Covington or that the Wizards might step up and offer Porter. But it's hard to know. In any event, to ignite that sort of competitive bidding situation would require a lot of smart, proactive negotiating and PR work by the Wolves front office. Honestly, I don't think our front office is capable of that. Therefore, we had better hope the Wolves can resurrect a deal structure with Miami that minimally brings back J. Richardson.
I'd say yes to any of the following Miami deals, in order of preference (3rd option reluctantly):
1. Butler for
Richardson,
Bam and
Winslow
2. Butler and Gorgui for
J. Richardson,
Tyler Johnson; and
Miami's lottery protected 2019 first rd pk
3. Butler, Gorgui and Patton for
Richardson,
Whiteside,
Miami's 2019 1st rd pick top 12 protected; and
Miami's 2023 1st rd pk unprotected,
But I wouldn't take any of these if I could get any of the following in a Butler deal package with or without Gorgui included:
1. Otto Porter from the Wizards;
2. T. Harris AND G-Alexander from the Clippers;
3. Covington AND either Fultz or Saric; or
4. Middleton AND Brogdon or a future 1st round pick no more than top 10 protected
