Best Player in the Draft

[MikkeMan]

Yes, I get the point about putting too much stock in workouts, q, but there's another factor in play here...the Dirk/Darko conundrum. As far as I know, Darko is the only European player to ever be chosen in the top 2 picks, although some have demonstrated that they should have been. And the Darko Disaster scares a lot of GMs from selecting a European player... for that reason, I would argue that every one of the top 10 European players playing today was drafted far below where he should have. Gasol, Gasol, Vukevic, Nowitski, Parker, Gobert, Antetokounmpo, Mirotic, Dragic and Gortat were picked 48, 3, 16, 9, 28, 27, 15, 23, 45 and 57. All have been terrific NBA players (well, maybe not the Freak yet), and only Pau Gasol was selected anywhere near his value...but with hindsight, he should have been taken before Tyson Chandler and Kwame Brown. Since scouts couldn't spend much time watching these guys in person or talking to college coaches they trusted, they basically had to rely on video and workouts...and both must have been significantly discounted. So when a scout says Porzingis is the best player in the draft, I listen.

Will Porzingis and Mudiay be the next two foreign stars to be overlooked?

I think you cannot count Vucevic as overlooked euro since he played three years of college ball before he was drafted. All GMs should have had enough easily comparable material to decide whether he will be successful or not. Euro bust list contains also at least Jan Vesely (6th pick) and in some extent Andrea Bargnani (1st pick). If we look just high drafted international busts, that list has also Bismack Biyombo (9th pick), Mouhamed Sene (10th pick) and Yi Jianlian (6th pick) that Cam already mentioned.

But you are right that list of draft steals is much longer. I would add at least Stojakovic (14th pick) Kirilenko (24th), Ilgauskas (20th), Ginobili (57th), Scola (55th) (they both played in Europe before coming to NBA), Turkoglu (16th), Krstic (24th), Varejao (30th), Pachulia (42th), Ilyasova (36th), Splitter (28th), Ibaka (24th), Batum (25th) and Asik (36th) to your already long list. After couple of years, you could probably also add Motiejunas (20th), Bogdanovic (31st) and Schroder (17th).

Since so many international players have ended up steals lately, I think that the huge number of international busts in 2003-2006 drafts (Darko Milicic 2nd, Mickael Pietrus 11th, Zarko Cabarkapa 17th, Sasha Pavlovic 19th, Zoran Planinic 22th, Pavel Podkolzin 21st, Sergei Monia 23rd, Fran Vazquez 11th, Yaroslav Korolev 12th, Johan Petro 25th, Andrea Bargnani 1st and Mouhamed Sene 10th) have made GMs already too careful at drafting players from foreign leagues.

I think only twice international player without college experience has been drafted as 1st pick (Bargnani 2006 and Ming 2002) but I think four times that kind of player has ended up as a best player in draft (Nowitzki 1998, Ginobili 1999 (you can make an argument also about Brand or Marion), Pau Gasol 2001 (could be also Tony Parker), if Petrovic had not died in car accident or Sabonis would have been able to come earlier we might consider either of them best of the 1986 draft, I will also believe that either Gobert or Giannis will end up as a best player of 2013 draft.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Very thorough post, Mikkeman. The only part I take issue with is labeling any player chosen out of the lottery a "bust", and you have several of those on your list. Once you get out of the first 15 or so picks, I always have measured expectations for players selected. I would never label a guy like Wayne Ellington a bust, for instance. Even though he hasn't performed very well, he has performed as expected for a guy picked in the 20s.

The underlying point you and I make is indisputable. Generally, European players are significantly undervalued in the draft.

[MikkeMan]

Very thorough post, Mikkeman. The only part I take issue with is labeling any player chosen out of the lottery a "bust", and you have several of those on your list. Once you get out of the first 15 or so picks, I always have measured expectations for players selected. I would never label a guy like Wayne Ellington a bust, for instance. Even though he hasn't performed very well, he has performed as expected for a guy picked in the 20s.

The underlying point you and I make is indisputable. Generally, European players are significantly undervalued in the draft.

Long, I wouldn't count players that are drafted after top 15 busts unless player has not been good enough to get even much backup minutes and there has been several better players still available. For example I think that 2003 Zarko Cabarkapa at 17th pick, Sasha Pavlovic at 19th pick and Zoran Planinic at 22th pick were busts since David West was 18th pick, Boris Diaw 21st, Carlos Delfino 25th, Kendrick Perkins 27th, Leandro Barbosa 28th, Josh Howard 29th, Steve Blake 38th, Zaza Pachulia 42nd, Mo Williams 47th and Kyle Korver 51st in same draft. But of course those three were still not remotely as bad busts than Darko since they were picked much later.

Even thought there was some better players than Wayne Ellington drafted later (Danny Green, Beverley, Chase), I don't either consider him bust because there was many worse players drafted earlier than Ellington.