PorkChop wrote:Towns was never leaned upon to be the number one option on his team so in turn he was more likely to rebound a miss here or there . Okafor on the other hand was taking a lot of the shots that take away from his ability to rebound those potential misses.. U really can make a good case for either player. I just prefer the guy that shows an innate ability to score the rock over someone that avg 10 pts a game last year. All sports are predicated on earning more points than the other team . I'll take the guy that can score and hope he figures it out on the other end rather than vice versa.
Yes, Towns averaged 10.3 points per game in 20.1 minutes per game. But Tim Duncan scored only 9.6 points per game his freshman year and that was playing 10 more minutes a game than Towns played. What Duncan did his freshman year was block 3.8 shots per games. At the risk of drawing the ire of those who don't like statistical extrapolations, I'll note that Towns 2.3 blocks per game translates to 3.4 per game playing the minutes Duncan played his freshman season.
So I don't put much stock in Towns 10.3 points per game as a knock on his NBA potential. And I actually see more Tim Duncan in Towns than I see in Okafor.
PorkChop wrote:Towns was never leaned upon to be the number one option on his team so in turn he was more likely to rebound a miss here or there . Okafor on the other hand was taking a lot of the shots that take away from his ability to rebound those potential misses.. U really can make a good case for either player. I just prefer the guy that shows an innate ability to score the rock over someone that avg 10 pts a game last year. All sports are predicated on earning more points than the other team . I'll take the guy that can score and hope he figures it out on the other end rather than vice versa.
Yes, Towns averaged 10.3 points per game in 20.1 minutes per game. But Tim Duncan scored only 9.6 points per game his freshman year and that was playing 10 more minutes a game than Towns played. What Duncan did his freshman year was block 3.8 shots per games. At the risk of drawing the ire of those who don't like statistical extrapolations, I'll note that Towns 2.3 blocks per game translates to 3.4 per game playing the minutes Duncan played his freshman season.
So I don't put much stock in Towns 10.3 points per game as a knock on his NBA potential. And I actually see more Tim Duncan in Towns than I see in Okafor.
I'm a Towns guy, but I don't think it's fair to take whatever numbers Towns had in his reduced playing time and project them to more minutes or more possessions and say that's what he would have done with more playing time. His numbers could have been better with more playing time, they could have got worse. I don't like the numbers projections, maybe I'm alone. I think endurance and fatigue factor in. Maybe playing a reduced minute role allowed Towns to play with more energy out there. Also playing a reduced role also may have limited Town's ability to get in rhythm.
PorkChop wrote:Towns was never leaned upon to be the number one option on his team so in turn he was more likely to rebound a miss here or there . Okafor on the other hand was taking a lot of the shots that take away from his ability to rebound those potential misses.. U really can make a good case for either player. I just prefer the guy that shows an innate ability to score the rock over someone that avg 10 pts a game last year. All sports are predicated on earning more points than the other team . I'll take the guy that can score and hope he figures it out on the other end rather than vice versa.
Yes, Towns averaged 10.3 points per game in 20.1 minutes per game. But Tim Duncan scored only 9.6 points per game his freshman year and that was playing 10 more minutes a game than Towns played. What Duncan did his freshman year was block 3.8 shots per games. At the risk of drawing the ire of those who don't like statistical extrapolations, I'll note that Towns 2.3 blocks per game translates to 3.4 per game playing the minutes Duncan played his freshman season.
So I don't put much stock in Towns 10.3 points per game as a knock on his NBA potential. And I actually see more Tim Duncan in Towns than I see in Okafor.
I'm a Towns guy, but I don't think it's fair to take whatever numbers Towns had in his reduced playing time and project them to more minutes or more possessions and say that's what he would have done with more playing time. His numbers could have been better with more playing time, they could have got worse. I don't like the numbers projections, maybe I'm alone. I think endurance and fatigue factor in. Maybe playing a reduced minute role allowed Towns to play with more energy out there. Also playing a reduced role also may have limited Town's ability to get in rhythm.
TRKO -- My main point is that Towns had more points in fewer minutes than Duncan had as a freshman. That was in response to concern about Towns scoring only 10 points per game and it obviously didn't involve any extrapolation. As for statistical extrapolations generally, I agree that you can't use them to say "that's what he would have done." Yet, that's not what I said. I just put the extrapolation out there. Does it mean that Towns' stats at 30.2 minutes would be exactly as indicated by the extrapolation? Of course not. But it's equally absurd to give no predictive value to the extrapolation, especially when extrapolating from 20 to 30 minutes as I was doing in the Duncan comparison rather than extrapolating from 20 to 40 minutes as I did earlier in this thread.
In any event, there shouldn't be any doubt that Towns is a substantially better defensive prospect than Okafor. When you then compare Towns' offensive numbers to Duncan's numbers as a freshman and factor in Towns' 81% free throw shooting, obviously impressive shooting touch and superior athleticism, the case for Towns over Okafor seems pretty darn clear. And that's before you extrapolation a single stat.
Well said Lip. The point of the per 30 or per 40 min projections is to show potential and of course it has to be taken with a grain of salt. Even if you only give Towns 50 cents on the dollar for the projected portion of the numbers it still looks good. IE: 10 points per 20 min extended out to being 15 points per 40 min due to cutting the value of the projected 20 min portion in half.
Also, no one said Towns was on Okafor's heels offensively. If Towns was seen as being that close he would be far and away the #1 prospect when you factor in his superior defense, but instead it's debatable right now. Some like one, some like the other. I personally see Towns as the better overall prospect and best fit here, but they're fairly close.
My main problem with a lot of the Towns arguments is they are contradictions that only 1 player in the NBA has overcome and that player is Anthony Davis who was the best two way player in the game this year. On the one hand people talk up Towns' rebounding and blocked shots and on the other they praise his perimeter potential on both sides of the ball. He's not an Anthony Davis level athlete that allows him to be everywhere at all times. If he's spending time on the perimeter it is going to cut into his rebounding and block numbers. Those numbers in college were with him close to the basket so if you expect him to play more away from the basket you have to account for some dip in that production that's been projected. Love's offensive rebounds are over 2 per game lower than his peak here in MN just from being a perimeter big now. Translate that type of dip with Towns if he plays away from the basket and those 12 rebounds just became an average 10. The top rebounders in the game live in the paint/low post area most of the game on both sides of the ball. So I don't see him posting 12 boards and 3 blocks if he's playing on the perimeter. You have to be a freak athlete to have your cake and eat it to and he's just not that level of athlete. He's a great athlete for a C, but he's not near the top compared to the top PF's in my opinion and I certainly don't see him having the quickness to be an Anthony Davis type guy on both ends of the court. He couldn't stay in front of Kaminsky so I don't see the high end PF athleticism he would need to play both on the perimeter and not see a drop in his interior numbers like rebounding and blocks.
TheGrey08 wrote:Well said Lip. The point of the per 30 or per 40 min projections is to show potential and of course it has to be taken with a grain of salt. Even if you only give Towns 50 cents on the dollar for the projected portion of the numbers it still looks good. IE: 10 points per 20 min extended out to being 15 points per 40 min due to cutting the value of the projected 20 min portion in half.
Also, no one said Towns was on Okafor's heels offensively. If Towns was seen as being that close he would be far and away the #1 prospect when you factor in his superior defense, but instead it's debatable right now. Some like one, some like the other. I personally see Towns as the better overall prospect and best fit here, but they're fairly close.
Everything Cam has posted about Towns offensively in this thread has been to try to prove Towns is on Okafor's heels so he's done everything short of saying exactly that he thinks Towns is close.
No, that's what you inferred all on your own. My point, and I even stated it within the post itself, was that:
So, while Okafor is rightfully expected to be the better scorer between the two, I don't believe the gap is wide enough at all to say that Jahlil's offense compensates for Karl's defense.
I posted the numbers to support my claim. You didn't like or appreciate what the numbers had to say. How appropriate of you, khans.
Camden wrote:No, that's what you inferred all on your own. My point, and I even stated it within the post itself, was that:
So, while Okafor is rightfully expected to be the better scorer between the two, I don't believe the gap is wide enough at all to say that Jahlil's offense compensates for Karl's defense.
I posted the numbers to support my claim. You didn't like or appreciate what the numbers had to say. How appropriate of you, khans.
I don't appreciate your numbers because they are obscenely projected. You're literally giving the guy credit for twice as much production as an estimated guess when there are a boatload of factors that make it likely he wouldn't hit those numbers. 21 MPG's to up to 40 like it's a fact he would hit those numbers.
khans2k5 wrote:My main problem with a lot of the Towns arguments is they are contradictions that only 1 player in the NBA has overcome and that player is Anthony Davis who was the best two way player in the game this year. On the one hand people talk up Towns' rebounding and blocked shots and on the other they praise his perimeter potential on both sides of the ball. He's not an Anthony Davis level athlete that allows him to be everywhere at all times. If he's spending time on the perimeter it is going to cut into his rebounding and block numbers. Those numbers in college were with him close to the basket so if you expect him to play more away from the basket you have to account for some dip in that production that's been projected. Love's offensive rebounds are over 2 per game lower than his peak here in MN just from being a perimeter big now. Translate that type of dip with Towns if he plays away from the basket and those 12 rebounds just became an average 10. The top rebounders in the game live in the paint/low post area most of the game on both sides of the ball. So I don't see him posting 12 boards and 3 blocks if he's playing on the perimeter. You have to be a freak athlete to have your cake and eat it to and he's just not that level of athlete. He's a great athlete for a C, but he's not near the top compared to the top PF's in my opinion and I certainly don't see him having the quickness to be an Anthony Davis type guy on both ends of the court. He couldn't stay in front of Kaminsky so I don't see the high end PF athleticism he would need to play both on the perimeter and not see a drop in his interior numbers like rebounding and blocks.
Duncan was able to average more than 2 blocks per game while playing at PF position next to Robinson and Duncan was about same level athlete than Towns is. Also later it seems that Duncan's offensive game has moved further away from basket as more than 25% of his shots have been from behind 16 feet but he still at age of 37 averaged 12 rebounds per 36 minutes. So it doesn't necessarily to require elite athleticism to be major force in both blocks and rebounds while playing power forward position. It requires just elite basketball smarts and length. Even Nowitzki averaged almost 10 rebounds per game while playing power forward that took a lot of three pointers and he is not nearly same level athlete and rebounder than Towns.
I still won't expect that Towns would get 12 rebounds per game in NBA because I won't expect that he would play almost 40 minutes per game like Duncan and Nowitzki did early in their career. It seems that currently all good organizations like San Antonio, Atlanta, Golden State and Dallas limit the amount of minutes their starters are playing in regular season to keep them fresher for playoffs. I think it will also increase length of their careers. I'm afraid that Flip doesn't have enough patience to do the same.
PorkChop wrote:Towns was never leaned upon to be the number one option on his team so in turn he was more likely to rebound a miss here or there . Okafor on the other hand was taking a lot of the shots that take away from his ability to rebound those potential misses.. U really can make a good case for either player. I just prefer the guy that shows an innate ability to score the rock over someone that avg 10 pts a game last year. All sports are predicated on earning more points than the other team . I'll take the guy that can score and hope he figures it out on the other end rather than vice versa.
Yes, Towns averaged 10.3 points per game in 20.1 minutes per game. But Tim Duncan scored only 9.6 points per game his freshman year and that was playing 10 more minutes a game than Towns played. What Duncan did his freshman year was block 3.8 shots per games. At the risk of drawing the ire of those who don't like statistical extrapolations, I'll note that Towns 2.3 blocks per game translates to 3.4 per game playing the minutes Duncan played his freshman season.
So I don't put much stock in Towns 10.3 points per game as a knock on his NBA potential. And I actually see more Tim Duncan in Towns than I see in Okafor.
I'm a Towns guy, but I don't think it's fair to take whatever numbers Towns had in his reduced playing time and project them to more minutes or more possessions and say that's what he would have done with more playing time. His numbers could have been better with more playing time, they could have got worse. I don't like the numbers projections, maybe I'm alone. I think endurance and fatigue factor in. Maybe playing a reduced minute role allowed Towns to play with more energy out there. Also playing a reduced role also may have limited Town's ability to get in rhythm.
TRKO -- My main point is that Towns had more points in fewer minutes than Duncan had as a freshman. That was in response to concern about Towns scoring only 10 points per game and it obviously didn't involve any extrapolation. As for statistical extrapolations generally, I agree that you can't use them to say "that's what he would have done." Yet, that's not what I said. I just put the extrapolation out there. Does it mean that Towns' stats at 30.2 minutes would be exactly as indicated by the extrapolation? Of course not. But it's equally absurd to give no predictive value to the extrapolation, especially when extrapolating from 20 to 30 minutes as I was doing in the Duncan comparison rather than extrapolating from 20 to 40 minutes as I did earlier in this thread.
In any event, there shouldn't be any doubt that Towns is a substantially better defensive prospect than Okafor. When you then compare Towns' offensive numbers to Duncan's numbers as a freshman and factor in Towns' 81% free throw shooting, obviously impressive shooting touch and superior athleticism, the case for Towns over Okafor seems pretty darn clear. And that's before you extrapolation a single stat.
Good points. There is no doubt in my mind Okafor will be a better offensive player than Towns. We don't need a pure scorer though. I think Wiggins and LaVine will be able to score well enough, and Towns will be able to score well enough too. We need Towns defense and rebounding.
