Q12543 wrote:I'm always suspicious when these types of declarations are made based on bringing a guy over for a workout, where they are faux-defended and take endless uncontested shots. Color me unimpressed.
He has a solid body of work from playing in the second best league in the world for the past couple of years and that is how his potential should be judged. From what we can tell, he has a nice shooting touch and extraordinary length that will allow him to get his shot off on anyone, and that's a pretty huge asset (Dirk, Aldridge, and Durant all have a similar advantage at their positions). He also gets plenty of blocks and steals. On the other hand, he is an anemic rebounder (for a 4 or 5) and not much of a passer.
I think the key factor with him is how much more weight can his frame put on? Perhaps his ceiling is in the Dirk/Aldridge range if he can add some more bulk and become an average rebounder and hold his own in the paint.
Yes, I get the point about putting too much stock in workouts, q, but there's another factor in play here...the Dirk/Darko conundrum. As far as I know, Darko is the only European player to ever be chosen in the top 2 picks, although some have demonstrated that they should have been. And the Darko Disaster scares a lot of GMs from selecting a European player... for that reason, I would argue that every one of the top 10 European players playing today was drafted far below where he should have. Gasol, Gasol, Vukevic, Nowitski, Parker, Gobert, Antetokounmpo, Mirotic, Dragic and Gortat were picked 48, 3, 16, 9, 28, 27, 15, 23, 45 and 57. All have been terrific NBA players (well, maybe not the Freak yet), and only Pau Gasol was selected anywhere near his value...but with hindsight, he should have been taken before Tyson Chandler and Kwame Brown. Since scouts couldn't spend much time watching these guys in person or talking to college coaches they trusted, they basically had to rely on video and workouts...and both must have been significantly discounted. So when a scout says Porzingis is the best player in the draft, I listen.
Will Porzingis and Mudiay be the next two foreign stars to be overlooked?
....But Porzi is currently ranked #3 in DX's mock draft and has been hanging around the top 6 or 7 all year, so I don't see him being undervalued in the same way those other guys were (and I agree with you, Euros tend to historically be undervalued due to the alleged uncertainty in how their games will translate to the NBA, as if similar uncertainty doesn't exist going from the NCAA to the NBA. This is a bias flaw that can be exposed by analytical-minded GMs that don't rely on "comfort" and tradition to cloud their judgement).
I just don't think this bias applies to Porzi, as evidenced by highly respected mock drafts.
Camden wrote:LST, all those success stories are great... when you leave out how many highly-touted Euro failures there have been. That list is just as long, if not marginally longer.
That's a fair point, cam, but only if you loosely define "highly-touted". There have been many Euros drafted later than the first ten picks who never panned out. But other than Darko and Nikoloz Tskitishvili (drafted 5th in 2002), I can't think of another Euro who was picked top ten and flopped. Maybe you cold say Luc Longley was a flop as a 7th pick in 1991, but he also has a couple rings, and only one guy picked after him (Terrell Brandon) was ever a 2-time all star. So, I still have to conclude that generally Euros are undervalued in the draft. And Porzingis is a great candidate to be the next undervalued Euro.
Not a total bust, but definitely not a very good #1 pick. He's a guy lots of people compare Porzingis to.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrea_Bargnani
Still, it's not fair to compare guys who are similar and say that they'll definitely follow the same fate. Rashad McCants is "similar" to Kobe and Wade! Guys can be similar players in terms of style, and even stats before the NBA, and turn out to have completely different fates.
Who knows with any of these guys, honestly!? The guys who played abroad are an even bigger roll of the dice. Maybe you get screwed, maybe you get lucky. You just never know.
Q12543 wrote:I'm always suspicious when these types of declarations are made based on bringing a guy over for a workout, where they are faux-defended and take endless uncontested shots. Color me unimpressed.
He has a solid body of work from playing in the second best league in the world for the past couple of years and that is how his potential should be judged. From what we can tell, he has a nice shooting touch and extraordinary length that will allow him to get his shot off on anyone, and that's a pretty huge asset (Dirk, Aldridge, and Durant all have a similar advantage at their positions). He also gets plenty of blocks and steals. On the other hand, he is an anemic rebounder (for a 4 or 5) and not much of a passer.
I think the key factor with him is how much more weight can his frame put on? Perhaps his ceiling is in the Dirk/Aldridge range if he can add some more bulk and become an average rebounder and hold his own in the paint.
Yes, I get the point about putting too much stock in workouts, q, but there's another factor in play here...the Dirk/Darko conundrum. As far as I know, Darko is the only European player to ever be chosen in the top 2 picks, although some have demonstrated that they should have been. And the Darko Disaster scares a lot of GMs from selecting a European player... for that reason, I would argue that every one of the top 10 European players playing today was drafted far below where he should have. Gasol, Gasol, Vukevic, Nowitski, Parker, Gobert, Antetokounmpo, Mirotic, Dragic and Gortat were picked 48, 3, 16, 9, 28, 27, 15, 23, 45 and 57. All have been terrific NBA players (well, maybe not the Freak yet), and only Pau Gasol was selected anywhere near his value...but with hindsight, he should have been taken before Tyson Chandler and Kwame Brown. Since scouts couldn't spend much time watching these guys in person or talking to college coaches they trusted, they basically had to rely on video and workouts...and both must have been significantly discounted. So when a scout says Porzingis is the best player in the draft, I listen.
Will Porzingis and Mudiay be the next two foreign stars to be overlooked?
....But Porzi is currently ranked #3 in DX's mock draft and has been hanging around the top 6 or 7 all year, so I don't see him being undervalued in the same way those other guys were (and I agree with you, Euros tend to historically be undervalued due to the alleged uncertainty in how their games will translate to the NBA, as if similar uncertainty doesn't exist going from the NCAA to the NBA. This is a bias flaw that can be exposed by analytical-minded GMs that don't rely on "comfort" and tradition to cloud their judgement).
I just don't think this bias applies to Porzi, as evidenced by highly respected mock drafts.
Maybe, maybe not. The last Euro to go 3rd was Pau Gasol, and I would argue he was undervalued and should have been picked ahead of Kwame Brown and Tyson Chandler. In fact the two situations are quite comparable. Two big centers being the consensus first two picks, and a more versatile but skinnier Euro 7-foot C/PF ranked behind them. The difference in the two scenarios is that Chandler and Brown both came directly from high school, so we didn't have as much reliable information about them as we do with Okafor and Towns. But still, it's interesting how the two scenarios parallel each other. Like Porzingis, the stated drawback that put him behind Brown and Chandler was his skinny frame and concerns that he could only play SF in the NBA.. Pau was barely over 200 pounds when he was drafted, while Brown and Chandler were much more physically developed. And yet he has made a career as a PF, even guarding centers at times...and blocking more shots per game than either of them.
Again, not advocating for taking Porzingis first. I'm merely saying that Flip needs to be listening to all offers to trade down.
Q12543 wrote:I'm always suspicious when these types of declarations are made based on bringing a guy over for a workout, where they are faux-defended and take endless uncontested shots. Color me unimpressed.
He has a solid body of work from playing in the second best league in the world for the past couple of years and that is how his potential should be judged. From what we can tell, he has a nice shooting touch and extraordinary length that will allow him to get his shot off on anyone, and that's a pretty huge asset (Dirk, Aldridge, and Durant all have a similar advantage at their positions). He also gets plenty of blocks and steals. On the other hand, he is an anemic rebounder (for a 4 or 5) and not much of a passer.
I think the key factor with him is how much more weight can his frame put on? Perhaps his ceiling is in the Dirk/Aldridge range if he can add some more bulk and become an average rebounder and hold his own in the paint.
Yes, I get the point about putting too much stock in workouts, q, but there's another factor in play here...the Dirk/Darko conundrum. As far as I know, Darko is the only European player to ever be chosen in the top 2 picks, although some have demonstrated that they should have been. And the Darko Disaster scares a lot of GMs from selecting a European player... for that reason, I would argue that every one of the top 10 European players playing today was drafted far below where he should have. Gasol, Gasol, Vukevic, Nowitski, Parker, Gobert, Antetokounmpo, Mirotic, Dragic and Gortat were picked 48, 3, 16, 9, 28, 27, 15, 23, 45 and 57. All have been terrific NBA players (well, maybe not the Freak yet), and only Pau Gasol was selected anywhere near his value...but with hindsight, he should have been taken before Tyson Chandler and Kwame Brown. Since scouts couldn't spend much time watching these guys in person or talking to college coaches they trusted, they basically had to rely on video and workouts...and both must have been significantly discounted. So when a scout says Porzingis is the best player in the draft, I listen.
Will Porzingis and Mudiay be the next two foreign stars to be overlooked?
....But Porzi is currently ranked #3 in DX's mock draft and has been hanging around the top 6 or 7 all year, so I don't see him being undervalued in the same way those other guys were (and I agree with you, Euros tend to historically be undervalued due to the alleged uncertainty in how their games will translate to the NBA, as if similar uncertainty doesn't exist going from the NCAA to the NBA. This is a bias flaw that can be exposed by analytical-minded GMs that don't rely on "comfort" and tradition to cloud their judgement).
I just don't think this bias applies to Porzi, as evidenced by highly respected mock drafts.
Maybe, maybe not. The last Euro to go 3rd was Pau Gasol, and I would argue he was undervalued and should have been picked ahead of Kwame Brown and Tyson Chandler. In fact the two situations are quite comparable. Two big centers being the consensus first two picks, and a more versatile but skinnier Euro 7-foot C/PF ranked behind them. The difference in the two scenarios is that Chandler and Brown both came directly from high school, so we didn't have as much reliable information about them as we do with Okafor and Towns. But still, it's interesting how the two scenarios parallel each other. Like Porzingis, the stated drawback that put him behind Brown and Chandler was his skinny frame and concerns that he could only play SF in the NBA.. Pau was barely over 200 pounds when he was drafted, while Brown and Chandler were much more physically developed. And yet he has made a career as a PF, even guarding centers at times...and blocking more shots per game than either of them.
Again, not advocating for taking Porzingis first. I'm merely saying that Flip needs to be listening to all offers to trade down.
At the time Brown and Chandler were picked it was the cool thing to do to take guys straight from HS. That should be taken into account.
One scout saying Zingis is better than Towns is interestingn but it's one guy. I like Zingis but he is more unknown Q lays out why Towns is the no brainer pick really and Cam brings up a legit worry with Zingis not being physical enough. My point is one guy or maybe even a couple guys LOVE Zingis (Flip even said he thinks he might be the most talented guy in the draft) great maybe they will be right but Towns is too good to pass up at this point and lots of people are just RAVING about him.
I don't think you could make a good enough argument for Zingis over Towns. What does he do better than him? The only things I'd give you is he's shown his jumper in games more than Towns, he's a more explosive athlete and he might be longer (might). Karl's better in pretty much every regard.
Camden0916 wrote:I don't think you could make a good enough argument for Zingis over Towns. What does he do better than him? The only things I'd give you is he's shown his jumper in games more than Towns, he's a more explosive athlete and he might be longer (might). Karl's better in pretty much every regard.
I totally agree with your point and his stroke does look a little sweeter than Towns. He is 7'1" so unless he has raptor arms he is longer than Towns. Towns ball handling looked more advanced though in these magical workout videos. Towns defense and rebounding seems so much more of a known quantity that's where he separated himself imo.
I'm a big fan of these DX draft profiles, because they spend as much time on weaknesses as strengths. Porzingis' weaknesses are well displayed in this video, and they help me understand why he has to be ranked behind Towns and Russell (although there are now rumors that the Lakers are considering him if we take Towns). I'm not so concerned that a 19 year old is getting pushed around by grown men...Pau Gasol was no different at that age, but grew into his height. But his lack of assists and rebounds are a concern. He's still third, or fourth, in my rankings.
Having said that, there are things I really like about him. Although the video questions his feel for the game, I think that speaks only to his ineffective passing ability. He has a great scorer's feel for the game. Similar to an elite wide receiver, he seems to have an innate sense for finding holes in the defense and putting himself in position to score...this is a great skill when paired with Rubio. Another thing I noticed, mostly in his workout videos, is his ability to shoot effectively on the move...very Kevin Martin like, and very rare in a 7 footer.
Getting back to the original point of this thread, there seems to be remarkable talent in at least five players in this draft without an enormous drop off from 1 to 5, making it an ideal situation for trading down. But Towns seems to be such a good fit for the Wolves, I'm not trading down without a sizable return.
I'm a big fan of these DX draft profiles, because they spend as much time on weaknesses as strengths. Porzingis' weaknesses are well displayed in this video, and they help me understand why he has to be ranked behind Towns and Russell (although there are now rumors that the Lakers are considering him if we take Towns). I'm not so concerned that a 19 year old is getting pushed around by grown men...Pau Gasol was no different at that age, but grew into his height. But his lack of assists and rebounds are a concern. He's still third, or fourth, in my rankings.
Having said that, there are things I really like about him. Although the video questions his feel for the game, I think that speaks only to his ineffective passing ability. He has a great scorer's feel for the game. Similar to an elite wide receiver, he seems to have an innate sense for finding holes in the defense and putting himself in position to score...this is a great skill when paired with Rubio. Another thing I noticed, mostly in his workout videos, is his ability to shoot effectively on the move...very Kevin Martin like, and very rare in a 7 footer.
Getting back to the original point of this thread, there seems to be remarkable talent in at least five players in this draft without an enormous drop off from 1 to 5, making it an ideal situation for trading down. But Towns seems to be such a good fit for the Wolves, I'm not trading down without a sizable return.
I really like Porzingis and would love to pair him with Towns or Okafor, but I'm not picking him over any of the big three due to his slight frame. I think he gets picked by the Knicks. Phil did well with Gasol and may feel he can develop Porzingis into another Pau.
