KG Effect on Wolves coaching situation

[60WinTim]

60WinPhenom? It kind of has a ring...

Next year.

Q got us confused. So I merged us...

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

I think Mike Malone would be a good pickup. He got the Kings to be a respectable defense and if Cousins hadn't gone down they probably would have been an above .500 team when he was canned. He was also an assistant during Lebron's tenure ('05-'10) in Cleveland so he had a first hand look at how the best basketball player in the game developed and played the game which he can pass down to guys like Wiggins. As far as offense goes I think you just need to incorporate the 3 ball more and you're fine with Ricky running the show. If Flip hires Lowe or Mitchell, I might be done with the team because Mitchell is supposed to be the defensive coach and our defense has been bad all year and Lowe hasn't won jack shit his whole life. The only reason I'm putting up with Flip as the coach is because I get that nobody would touch this job last offseason outside of Joeger, but now that Wiggins has shown to be a cornerstone player and Ricky makes the offense run so well that this should be a much more attractive gig to bring in someone outside the crappy country club. We'll never win anything if we always play with a hand tied behind our back because of how badly we lose the 3 point battle on a nightly basis.

[Lipoli390]

I'm certain Flip will coach as long as he wants to. And I'm equally certain that Flip wants to coach at least one more season, perhaps longer. I don't think KG's arrival will have any impact on how much loner Flip coaches. However, I suspect KG will have some role in management after he retires in a year or two and I'm sure Flip will consult him in choosing the next head coach. But I have to believe that this organization would not allow KG to dictate the choice.

The love the idea of hiring Thib. Sam Mitchel would be a bad idea. But for now it's Flip. As for Flip's coaching philosophy, I don't think he's caught in a time warp. He fully understands the premium value of three-point shooting in today's NBA. Flip has talked publicly about the importance of three-point shooting and why he re-signed Martin and traded for Neal. But Flip coaches to the strength of his players and he recognizes that the Wolves haven't had much in the way of three-point shooing talent on the team and this season.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

We're dead last in the league in 3 point attempts and 23rd in percentage. Boston and OKC are right below us in terms of %, but they get almost an extra 9 PPG's just because they take more 3's even though they don't have great shooters on their teams. Everyone below us with the exception of Charlotte takes 5-10 more 3's than us per game even though they don't hit them any better than we do. It's simple math. You don't need to have great shooters to make it worthwhile. You just have to be committed to trying. If we take 10 more per game and drop 15%, we are right there with Denver at the bottom in terms of %, but they still get an extra 6+ PPG's that we don't right now because they just take more shots than we do. We need more plays designed to get open 3's and we need more guys taking 3's when they are open because it is still worthwhile even if they shoot 30% which is on the low end in my mind because Wiggins is clear of that percentage pretty handily and Ricky and Lavine aren't that far away if they take more open looks. The math doesn't support Flip's offensive philosophy until he actually tries and proves these guys just can't shoot even if they are open. I find it hard to believe with more repetition that Ricky, Lavine and maybe even Payne and AB are sub 30% 3 point shooters if they stick to open 3's, but that requires an effort from Flip to either design more plays to get open looks or give guys a bigger leash when it comes to taking 3's as long as it is an open look. If you can't hit 40% of your long two's, then it is not a strength you should be encouraged to utilize over taking a 3.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I'm certain Flip will coach as long as he wants to. And I'm equally certain that Flip wants to coach at least one more season, perhaps longer. I don't think KG's arrival will have any impact on how much loner Flip coaches. However, I suspect KG will have some role in management after he retires in a year or two and I'm sure Flip will consult him in choosing the next head coach. But I have to believe that this organization would not allow KG to dictate the choice.

The love the idea of hiring Thib. Sam Mitchel would be a bad idea. But for now it's Flip. As for Flip's coaching philosophy, I don't think he's caught in a time warp. He fully understands the premium value of three-point shooting in today's NBA. Flip has talked publicly about the importance of three-point shooting and why he re-signed Martin and traded for Neal. But Flip coaches to the strength of his players and he recognizes that the Wolves haven't had much in the way of three-point shooing talent on the team and this season.

Lip, there are times that I have given Flip the same pass on the lack of 3-point shooting, pinning it on players rather than system. But I'm not there anymore. We won an entertaining game Saturday, but we were lucky, because the 3-point disparity was absurd. And the numbers just don't support the "players, not Flip" argument. Renowned 3-point shooters Martin and Neal took 32 shots against Portland, and only 2 of them were 3-pointers! To put that in perspective, 41% of Neal's shots and 34% of Martin's have been 3-pointers during their careers. This guys are naturally inclined to take the 3-pointer. To take only 2 in a game tells me they are being directed inside the arc by their coach. I'm solidly on the Q/Khans train now and believe Flip needs to adjust his mindset. I'm convinced he could trade for Korver and turn him into a mid-ranger!

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

It's not that I think Flip outright discourages the 3 point shot. The problem is he doesn't do anything with his offense to encourage the 3-point shot and discourage the long 2. To him, it's as if all open jump shots are created equal. I mean, he actively designs plays for 20-foot 2's. He runs pin-down action all the time to free up Martin, Neal, and even Wiggins for long catch-turn-and-shoot 2's. Even really good catch-and-shoot jump shooters can hit this shot at only a 40%-ish rate.

To build on Khan's post earlier, here are some more frustrating stats:

- 24% of the Wolves' shots are between 16 feet and just below the 3 point arc (i.e. the Long Two). That's the 3rd most in the league. Meanwhile, we rank 28th in FG% on these shots at 36.5%. So a quarter of our offense comes from long 2's, which we're really not very good at making!

- 17% of our shots are 3-pointers. That's dead last in the league. Yet as Khans mentions above, we're not half-bad at making them. We knock them down at a 33% rate. That's equivalent to hitting long 2's at a 50% rate!!!

- There are only five teams in the NBA that take a higher percentage of long 2's than 3's: Minnesota, New York, Charlotte, LA Lakers, and Washington (gee, what a surprise, a Randy Wittman coached team). That's not exactly a Who's Who of brilliant NBA offenses. All are in the Bottom 10 of NBA offensive efficiency.

- I agree with Lip that we don't have the personnel to be launching 3-pointers all night long. But it's a travesty that a 35% 3-point shooter in Andrew Wiggins is averaging only 1.7 3PT attempts per game. He averages twice as many long 2's, which he only hits at a 32% rate. Why would this be encouraged!? Wiggins should be posting up, driving the basketball, or taking 3 point shots. Step-back and pull-up 2's are nice to have when the shot clock is running down and no other options are available, but these are tough shots and should be actively discouraged!

The End.

[Lipoli390]

One of the things I like about this message board is the extraordinarily high quality of the information analysis we get from so many. This thread is a good case in point. Q, Kahns and Long have made a compelling case and caused me to change my view on Flip's coaching. I like the way Q put it. It's that Flip's offense fails to ENCOURAGE the three-point shot and appears to all shots as if they are created equal. The stats provided by Kahns, Long and Q bear that out. I'd love to have the chance to talk with Flip about this.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

At the risk of out-q'ing you, q, I don't agree with Lip's and your premise that we don't have the personnel to be trying 3's all night long. Every player on our team who attempts threes (i.e. everyone except Pek, Dieng and KG), has a statistical edge every time they launch a three (except for Adreian Payne), so I would argue that we DO have the personnel to be launching 3's. Here's the data as to points per shot this year on two's and three's, respectively.

Martin .9 1.2
Wiggins.9 1.0
Neal .9 1.1
Muhammad 1.0 1.2
Rubio .7 .8
Zach .8 .9
Payne .7 .5
AB .8 .9
Bud .7 1.0
Hummel 1.0 1.0 (But without rounding, his 3-point number is higher)

Pretty dramatic results. and evidence that it is the system, not the personnel, that is stifling our offense. And keep in mind that this data is flawed because it compares ALL 2's to 3's. Obviously the points per attempt on shots close to the basket is very high. Therefore, the difference in points per shot between 3's and mid-range shots is even more dramatic (I'm not going to take the time to illustrate this, but it is intuitively obvious). Flip's emphasis on the mid-range game costs us points every time we have an offensive possession. This was never more clear than last Saturday night, when we needed an unconscious mid-range performance by Neal to pull out a win.

At the start of the season, Flip demonstrated his lack of understanding of this concept when he stated publicly that he was using practice time to discourage certain players from taking threes...he actually talked about his "approved list" of players that had earned the right to shoot a three. This is antiquated thinking. It frustrates me that our local beat writers don't press Flip more on this...it seems like they are more interested in being buddy buddy with him than demanding that he defend his offensive philosophy using the data above.

Overall, I'm a supporter of Flip as a coach. I think he maintains a balance of being a player coach and disciplinarian, and I think he creates a cohesive team atmosphere. I also approve of how he has used our young guys this year, and largely approve of his rotations. I also admire the way he is able to create open mid-range jump shots. My beef with Flip is that he emphasizes this aspect of the game too much to the detriment of our offensive production. He needs to change his philosophy, or step aside and bring in a coach who understands the modern NBA game.

[AbeVigodaLive]

At the risk of out-q'ing you, q, I don't agree with Lip's and your premise that we don't have the personnel to be trying 3's all night long. Every player on our team who attempts threes (i.e. everyone except Pek, Dieng and KG), has a statistical edge every time they launch a three (except for Adreian Payne), so I would argue that we DO have the personnel to be launching 3's. Here's the data as to points per shot this year on two's and three's, respectively.

Martin .9 1.2
Wiggins.9 1.0
Neal .9 1.1
Muhammad 1.0 1.2
Rubio .7 .8
Zach .8 .9
Payne .7 .5
AB .8 .9
Bud .7 1.0
Hummel 1.0 1.0 (But without rounding, his 3-point number is higher)

Pretty dramatic results. and evidence that it is the system, not the personnel, that is stifling our offense. And keep in mind that this data is flawed because it compares ALL 2's to 3's. Obviously the points per attempt on shots close to the basket is very high. Therefore, the difference in points per shot between 3's and mid-range shots is even more dramatic (I'm not going to take the time to illustrate this, but it is intuitively obvious). Flip's emphasis on the mid-range game costs us points every time we have an offensive possession. This was never more clear than last Saturday night, when we needed an unconscious mid-range performance by Neal to pull out a win.

At the start of the season, Flip demonstrated his lack of understanding of this concept when he stated publicly that he was using practice time to discourage certain players from taking threes...he actually talked about his "approved list" of players that had earned the right to shoot a three. This is antiquated thinking. It frustrates me that our local beat writers don't press Flip more on this...it seems like they are more interested in being buddy buddy with him than demanding that he defend his offensive philosophy using the data above.

Overall, I'm a supporter of Flip as a coach. I think he maintains a balance of being a player coach and disciplinarian, and I think he creates a cohesive team atmosphere. I also approve of how he has used our young guys this year, and largely approve of his rotations. I also admire the way he is able to create open mid-range jump shots. My beef with Flip is that he emphasizes this aspect of the game too much to the detriment of our offensive production. He needs to change his philosophy, or step aside and bring in a coach who understands the modern NBA game.

So Sam Mitchell it is with Sidney Lowe as his main assistant.

Yeah!

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

You guys take that Daryl Morey analytics crap out of here, there's no room for that here.

Signed,
Old people