Fuel For The Wiggins Skeptics

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Nobody else finds it funny when they say he's a great isolation defender, but his lack of steals and rebounds is why his advanced stats on the defensive side of the ball sucks? That sounds so stupid. I'd rather have a guy holding his opponent to 30% shooting with good fundamentals than Corey Brewer gambling all over the place for steals. I just thought it was funny that they basically admit their defensive metrics don't account for actual defense and are heavily affected by stat stuffing.

To be fair, isolation defense is only one part of the story... and if I'm reading it correctly... a pretty small one. Wiggins has only been involved in 22 of such plays this season.

How many loose balls has he not gotten? Rebounds? Steals? Then, you look at other types of defense. How is he helping from the weakside? Defensive handoffs. PnR's?

So it's unfair to judge Wiggins defensively ONLY by stat stuffing categories. Likewise, it's unfair to judge Wiggins defensively ONLY by 22 isolation defense plays.

Wiggins has seen 25 isolation plays and held opponents to .52 PPP and 27.3% FG shooting in isolation. He's defended the ball handler in the PnR 76 times and held opponents to .70 PPP and 33.9% FG shooting (Rubio is only one better on the team). In 24 post attempts he's holding opponents to .46 PPP and 11.8% FG shooting. In 78 spot up attempts it's .99 PPP and 39.7% FG shooting. In 26 handoffs he's at .96 PPP and 40% FG shooting. In 25 plays off screens he's at .72 PPP and 29.2% FG shooting. He's in the top 89.2% in ISO, 66% in ball handler, 96% post-up, 38.8% spot up, 39% hand-off and 74.7% off screens. So he struggles at two things defensively and yet he's still measured out badly on the defensive side of the ball with advanced metrics. That says to me they put way too much value in stat stuffing.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Nobody else finds it funny when they say he's a great isolation defender, but his lack of steals and rebounds is why his advanced stats on the defensive side of the ball sucks? That sounds so stupid. I'd rather have a guy holding his opponent to 30% shooting with good fundamentals than Corey Brewer gambling all over the place for steals. I just thought it was funny that they basically admit their defensive metrics don't account for actual defense and are heavily affected by stat stuffing.

To be fair, isolation defense is only one part of the story... and if I'm reading it correctly... a pretty small one. Wiggins has only been involved in 22 of such plays this season.

How many loose balls has he not gotten? Rebounds? Steals? Then, you look at other types of defense. How is he helping from the weakside? Defensive handoffs. PnR's?

So it's unfair to judge Wiggins defensively ONLY by stat stuffing categories. Likewise, it's unfair to judge Wiggins defensively ONLY by 22 isolation defense plays.

Wiggins has seen 25 isolation plays and held opponents to .52 PPP and 27.3% FG shooting in isolation. He's defended the ball handler in the PnR 76 times and held opponents to .70 PPP and 33.9% FG shooting (Rubio is only one better on the team). In 24 post attempts he's holding opponents to .46 PPP and 11.8% FG shooting. In 78 spot up attempts it's .99 PPP and 39.7% FG shooting. In 26 handoffs he's at .96 PPP and 40% FG shooting. In 25 plays off screens he's at .72 PPP and 29.2% FG shooting. He's in the top 89.2% in ISO, 66% in ball handler, 96% post-up, 38.8% spot up, 39% hand-off and 74.7% off screens. So he struggles at two things defensively and yet he's still measured out badly on the defensive side of the ball with advanced metrics. That says to me they put way too much value in stat stuffing.

Thanks for adding more context. (and for doing the research I was too lazy to look up) I dig.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Dieng is also #2 in the league in roll man defense behind only Aldridge. .48 PPP and 21.1% FG shooting. 96.1 percentile. 21 total possessions defended. So at least Sam isn't spewing hot air about his remarks that Dieng is a better PnR defender than Towns. He's significantly better statistically speaking.

It should also be noted that Zach is in the 83.9 percentile of spot up shooting defense at .71 PPP and 34.5% FG shooting to Martin's 23.3 percentile and 1.09 PPP and 42% FG shooting. Zach is also in the 15.9th percentile for ball handler defense at .97 PPP and 48.9% FG shooting so Sam obviously doesn't look at those numbers to determine whether or not Zach can play PG (answer is he can't and shouldn't defensively).

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Nobody else finds it funny when they say he's a great isolation defender, but his lack of steals and rebounds is why his advanced stats on the defensive side of the ball sucks? That sounds so stupid. I'd rather have a guy holding his opponent to 30% shooting with good fundamentals than Corey Brewer gambling all over the place for steals. I just thought it was funny that they basically admit their defensive metrics don't account for actual defense and are heavily affected by stat stuffing.

To be fair, isolation defense is only one part of the story... and if I'm reading it correctly... a pretty small one. Wiggins has only been involved in 22 of such plays this season.

How many loose balls has he not gotten? Rebounds? Steals? Then, you look at other types of defense. How is he helping from the weakside? Defensive handoffs. PnR's?

So it's unfair to judge Wiggins defensively ONLY by stat stuffing categories. Likewise, it's unfair to judge Wiggins defensively ONLY by 22 isolation defense plays.

Wiggins has seen 25 isolation plays and held opponents to .52 PPP and 27.3% FG shooting in isolation. He's defended the ball handler in the PnR 76 times and held opponents to .70 PPP and 33.9% FG shooting (Rubio is only one better on the team). In 24 post attempts he's holding opponents to .46 PPP and 11.8% FG shooting. In 78 spot up attempts it's .99 PPP and 39.7% FG shooting. In 26 handoffs he's at .96 PPP and 40% FG shooting. In 25 plays off screens he's at .72 PPP and 29.2% FG shooting. He's in the top 89.2% in ISO, 66% in ball handler, 96% post-up, 38.8% spot up, 39% hand-off and 74.7% off screens. So he struggles at two things defensively and yet he's still measured out badly on the defensive side of the ball with advanced metrics. That says to me they put way too much value in stat stuffing.

Khans, It's not just ESPN RPM (which yes, shows an extreme that doesn't seem justified). Our team defensive rating (from NBA.com, not B-ball reference) when he's on the floor is also less than stellar. Here are our team defensive ratings, from best to worst:

KG - 96.9
Rubio - 97.7
Prince - 98.2
Muhammed - 102.7
Payne - 102.7
Martin - 102.9
Towns - 102.9
Dieng - 103.6
LaVine - 103.8
Wiggins - 103.9
Bjelica - 106.1
Rudez - 110.1
Miller - 111.3

Now obviously this has a bunch of noise in it too, but it is what it is. This is not some complicated stat that relies on all sorts of derivative equations and assumptions. It's another data point in the total picture.

[Carlos Danger]

Nobody else finds it funny when they say he's a great isolation defender, but his lack of steals and rebounds is why his advanced stats on the defensive side of the ball sucks? That sounds so stupid. I'd rather have a guy holding his opponent to 30% shooting with good fundamentals than Corey Brewer gambling all over the place for steals. I just thought it was funny that they basically admit their defensive metrics don't account for actual defense and are heavily affected by stat stuffing.

To be fair, isolation defense is only one part of the story... and if I'm reading it correctly... a pretty small one. Wiggins has only been involved in 22 of such plays this season.

How many loose balls has he not gotten? Rebounds? Steals? Then, you look at other types of defense. How is he helping from the weakside? Defensive handoffs. PnR's?

So it's unfair to judge Wiggins defensively ONLY by stat stuffing categories. Likewise, it's unfair to judge Wiggins defensively ONLY by 22 isolation defense plays.

Wiggins has seen 25 isolation plays and held opponents to .52 PPP and 27.3% FG shooting in isolation. He's defended the ball handler in the PnR 76 times and held opponents to .70 PPP and 33.9% FG shooting (Rubio is only one better on the team). In 24 post attempts he's holding opponents to .46 PPP and 11.8% FG shooting. In 78 spot up attempts it's .99 PPP and 39.7% FG shooting. In 26 handoffs he's at .96 PPP and 40% FG shooting. In 25 plays off screens he's at .72 PPP and 29.2% FG shooting. He's in the top 89.2% in ISO, 66% in ball handler, 96% post-up, 38.8% spot up, 39% hand-off and 74.7% off screens. So he struggles at two things defensively and yet he's still measured out badly on the defensive side of the ball with advanced metrics. That says to me they put way too much value in stat stuffing.

I think anytime the advanced stats don't match the eyeballs you need to dig a little deeper and explain. And I thought the authors did that. They stated that while he's done a good job of keeping his own man from scoring, he's not doing enough as a help defender. Combine that with his low rebounding and steals he that's why is RPM is low. I think that's a fair explanation. I wouldn't throw out the baby with the bath water with advanced stats. I think they are great. They don't always show things correctly. But that's where it's on us to dig deeper and try and understand why.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Nobody else finds it funny when they say he's a great isolation defender, but his lack of steals and rebounds is why his advanced stats on the defensive side of the ball sucks? That sounds so stupid. I'd rather have a guy holding his opponent to 30% shooting with good fundamentals than Corey Brewer gambling all over the place for steals. I just thought it was funny that they basically admit their defensive metrics don't account for actual defense and are heavily affected by stat stuffing.

To be fair, isolation defense is only one part of the story... and if I'm reading it correctly... a pretty small one. Wiggins has only been involved in 22 of such plays this season.

How many loose balls has he not gotten? Rebounds? Steals? Then, you look at other types of defense. How is he helping from the weakside? Defensive handoffs. PnR's?

So it's unfair to judge Wiggins defensively ONLY by stat stuffing categories. Likewise, it's unfair to judge Wiggins defensively ONLY by 22 isolation defense plays.

Wiggins has seen 25 isolation plays and held opponents to .52 PPP and 27.3% FG shooting in isolation. He's defended the ball handler in the PnR 76 times and held opponents to .70 PPP and 33.9% FG shooting (Rubio is only one better on the team). In 24 post attempts he's holding opponents to .46 PPP and 11.8% FG shooting. In 78 spot up attempts it's .99 PPP and 39.7% FG shooting. In 26 handoffs he's at .96 PPP and 40% FG shooting. In 25 plays off screens he's at .72 PPP and 29.2% FG shooting. He's in the top 89.2% in ISO, 66% in ball handler, 96% post-up, 38.8% spot up, 39% hand-off and 74.7% off screens. So he struggles at two things defensively and yet he's still measured out badly on the defensive side of the ball with advanced metrics. That says to me they put way too much value in stat stuffing.

I think anytime the advanced stats don't match the eyeballs you need to dig a little deeper and explain. And I thought the authors did that. They stated that while he's done a good job of keeping his own man from scoring, he's not doing enough as a help defender. Combine that with his low rebounding and steals he that's why is RPM is low. I think that's a fair explanation. I wouldn't throw out the baby with the bath water with advanced stats. I think they are great. They don't always show things correctly. But that's where it's on us to dig deeper and try and understand why.

I don't know how to ever trust a rating that has a statistically good individual defender like Wiggins rated 91/92 SG's in the league for Defensive real plus/minus. Kevin Martin is rated 85/92. How have we won any games with 2 of the 8 worst perimeter defending 2's in the league according to this stat? That's insane. That's why their defensive stats suck. They are just more stats compiled from box scores when defense is more about what you stop your opponent from doing and less the stats you can put up while doing it. Would anyone seriously argue Kevin Martin is a better defender than Andrew Wiggins? That's why that stat blows.

[Carlos Danger]

I don't know how to ever trust a rating that has a statistically good individual defender like Wiggins rated 91/92 SG's in the league for Defensive real plus/minus. Kevin Martin is rated 85/92. How have we won any games with 2 of the 8 worst perimeter defending 2's in the league according to this stat? That's insane. That's why their defensive stats suck. They are just more stats compiled from box scores when defense is more about what you stop your opponent from doing and less the stats you can put up while doing it. Would anyone seriously argue Kevin Martin is a better defender than Andrew Wiggins? That's why that stat blows.

I get that. I personally don't ever use that stat myself. But in this case, I liked that the author explained the reasoning behind why Wiggins rated lower than we'd expect. I didn't take the theme of the article as "anti-Wiggins" at all. I thought it just pointed out how (like Q - stated) some people can look at Wiggins and say "he's not a star player right now" and other can look at him and say "Are you nuts? Look at that friggin guy!".

I think there are anomalies in any way we try to measure players. You really can't ever depend on one single stat or rating to give you 100% accuracy. The same can be said with relying only on our eyeballs since most have biases based on players we like and don't like. That's what makes for such fun back & forth on these boards!

[AbeVigodaLive]

Nobody else finds it funny when they say he's a great isolation defender, but his lack of steals and rebounds is why his advanced stats on the defensive side of the ball sucks? That sounds so stupid. I'd rather have a guy holding his opponent to 30% shooting with good fundamentals than Corey Brewer gambling all over the place for steals. I just thought it was funny that they basically admit their defensive metrics don't account for actual defense and are heavily affected by stat stuffing.

To be fair, isolation defense is only one part of the story... and if I'm reading it correctly... a pretty small one. Wiggins has only been involved in 22 of such plays this season.

How many loose balls has he not gotten? Rebounds? Steals? Then, you look at other types of defense. How is he helping from the weakside? Defensive handoffs. PnR's?

So it's unfair to judge Wiggins defensively ONLY by stat stuffing categories. Likewise, it's unfair to judge Wiggins defensively ONLY by 22 isolation defense plays.

Wiggins has seen 25 isolation plays and held opponents to .52 PPP and 27.3% FG shooting in isolation. He's defended the ball handler in the PnR 76 times and held opponents to .70 PPP and 33.9% FG shooting (Rubio is only one better on the team). In 24 post attempts he's holding opponents to .46 PPP and 11.8% FG shooting. In 78 spot up attempts it's .99 PPP and 39.7% FG shooting. In 26 handoffs he's at .96 PPP and 40% FG shooting. In 25 plays off screens he's at .72 PPP and 29.2% FG shooting. He's in the top 89.2% in ISO, 66% in ball handler, 96% post-up, 38.8% spot up, 39% hand-off and 74.7% off screens. So he struggles at two things defensively and yet he's still measured out badly on the defensive side of the ball with advanced metrics. That says to me they put way too much value in stat stuffing.

I think anytime the advanced stats don't match the eyeballs you need to dig a little deeper and explain. And I thought the authors did that. They stated that while he's done a good job of keeping his own man from scoring, he's not doing enough as a help defender. Combine that with his low rebounding and steals he that's why is RPM is low. I think that's a fair explanation. I wouldn't throw out the baby with the bath water with advanced stats. I think they are great. They don't always show things correctly. But that's where it's on us to dig deeper and try and understand why.

I don't know how to ever trust a rating that has a statistically good individual defender like Wiggins rated 91/92 SG's in the league for Defensive real plus/minus. Kevin Martin is rated 85/92. How have we won any games with 2 of the 8 worst perimeter defending 2's in the league according to this stat? That's insane. That's why their defensive stats suck. They are just more stats compiled from box scores when defense is more about what you stop your opponent from doing and less the stats you can put up while doing it. Would anyone seriously argue Kevin Martin is a better defender than Andrew Wiggins? That's why that stat blows.

Hey, Wiggins is the 407th "best" out of 413 NBA players on defense. I don't understand why you just can't accept the facts.



[Note: I've said it many times, I fear the day when the stat geeks win and discussing basketball becomes as tedious as it is to discuss baseball. I refuse to accept that basketball can be so neatly compartmentalized into neat little boxes of stats, ratings and metrics. I like knowing/reading/guessing that a guy shot 4 - 22 fg one game because he met up with a bad groupie and worse line of cocaine the night before. Or, that a SG went off in a game because the opposing PF once stole his girl at a party at UNC.

More than that, basketball at its most pure is about 5 guys working together. Without that pick being set, without the entire team being in the right spot, without working together, you're not going to win consistently.

Stats are great. I love them more than most. But stats shouldn't be the story in the NBA. There are too many good stories that would get tucked away if we made more and more obscure and artificially created stats the story.

[fondey [enjin:6644772]]

I'm really thrown off by the author pigeonholing him as either a Durant superstar or a Carmello letdown. There's a lot better comparisons out there. I really like Paul George, who I think is somewhere in the middle between Melo/Durant. George was the best player on the Pacers team when they were battling the Heat every year in the conference finals. I can see Wiggins taking on a very similar role.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

RPM is a data point, and like anything else, it's imperfect - you do get some occasional confounding results. That being said, directionally it tends to be correct. If you go back and look at the Top and Bottom 5 in RPM over the last couple of years, it generally passes the common sense test.

Why it has Wiggins so low defensively I don't understand, but there probably is at least a tiny bit of truth to it. You combine that with everything else we observe and know about Wiggins and it all comes out to average-ish when it comes to his defense. He's great at some things and not so great at others. Players tend to get better as they age, so I'm not too worried about it.