Camden wrote:This is a cost-effective off-season plan of attack that makes sense to me if I were the decision-maker for the Minnesota Timberwolves. These transactions don't necessarily guarantee the playoffs in 2021, but they quietly accomplish a lot here. They retain their most valuable free agents without overspending. They navigate a bevy of trade offers and draft high-upside two-way players. They also make a sneaky free agent signing to add some versatility to the roster.
NBA Draft:
- Timberwolves select F/C James Wiseman first overall.
- Timberwolves trade the 17th overall pick and the 33rd overall pick to the San Antonio Spurs for the 11th overall pick.
- Timberwolves re-sign G Malik Beasley to a three-year, $33-million contract.
- Timberwolves re-sign G Jordan McLaughlin to a three-year, $5-million contract.
- Timberwolves sign G Shaquille Harrison to a three-year, $9-million contract.
- F James Johnson exercises his $16-million player option for the 2020-21 season.
Other Transactions:
- Timberwolves waive G Jacob Evans III.
Roster:
1: D'Angelo Russell / Jordan McLaughlin / Shaquille Harrison
2: Malik Beasley / Josh Okogie / Jaylen Nowell
3: Jarrett Culver / Jake Layman / Devin Vassell
4: Karl-Anthony Towns / James Johnson / Jarred Vanderbilt
5: James Wiseman / Naz Reid / Omari Spellman
That's a great plan, Cam. I don't think #17 and 33 would get us all the way up to #11 or high enough to get Vassell. I also suspect that it will take $15 million per year to sign Beasley. I hadn't thought of Harrison, but he'd be be a nice pickup for the Wolves. If the Wolves were able to implement your plan, I think the resulting team would compete for a playoff spot. A lot depends on how well Towns and Russell play together and whether they both improve defensively.
The 33rd overall pick is practically a low first-round pick without some of the guaranteed money and years that comes with it. I've seen some former executives talk about those early second round picks having more value than the late firsts for those reasons.
I also used Kevin Pelton's draft pick value trade machine and 17 and 33 for 11 was deemed favorable for San Antonio so I went with it. As for where Devin Vassell gets selected, I agree that he should get picked higher than 11, but as we've seen in past years teams talk themselves into the perceived potential of others and more sure things slide down the ladder a bit. I could see teams swing for the fences on Isaac Okoro, R.J. Hampton, Patrick Williams, and Kira Lewis Jr., essentially pushing Vassell to the back end of the lottery. And for my plan's sake, if Vassell is off the table, I'd be more than happy to take Saddiq Bey in that slot.
I sincerely hope that Malik Beasley doesn't get offered $15-million annually from anyone including the Wolves. He's just not worth that based on his production to date as I see it. I also saw Darren Wolfson tweet that based on what he's heard he thinks Beasley will get $10-12-million annually, for what it's worth. I don't trust Wolfson, but I hope he's right about that.
Your last sentence is the key to any plan the Wolves implement. Karl-Anthony Towns and D'Angelo Russell have to improve defensively or else this ship will not get very far. That's the truth.
FWIW Bobby Marks on wolfson's podcast broke down the amount of money available to spend this year and i think it's like a 4th or 5th as much as last off-season. Regardless it's a lot less. He said there was simply only a few teams (Like 4-6 teams) that would even have cap space to offer money for a SG and most of those teams already have a guy that's equal, has potential at the spot or better. Marks isn't always right but I read an article just now that makes it look like Marks numbers are correct. This could be a very good year to have RFA that is worth say a little more than the mid level which describes Beasley. The Wolves legitimately seem to be in a good position to get a potentially worthwhile player at a reasonable rate. I do still worry a little that somehow we end up overpaying him though. I can't help it. Lol
khans2k5 wrote:I think if Wiseman got a full year he would have dominated pretty thoroughly and been the clear cut number 1 pick. A good big man in college can just dominate. There's a reason Ayton and Bagley went 1-2 in 2018 and I think Wiseman has a similar college season as them if he plays the whole year. Wiseman was 20-11-3 blocks in his 3 games and he was in a middling conference. They played 4 ranked teams the whole season. His one game against a ranked opponent in Oregon he still went 14/12 in 22 minutes on 8 shots.
You might be right, Kahns. But think about how Ayton and Bagley have performed since getting to the NBA. They dominated in college, but they've been lackluster in the NBA so far and if those drafts were redone, they'd fall a number of slots. What do you think distinguishes Wiseman from those two enough to suggest that Wiseman won't end up another Ayton or Bagley? I'm asking as someone leaning towards wanting the Wolves to draft Wiseman, but also nervous about him as our selection.
I brought up Ayton in another thread but a big difference for me with Bagley is that I thought he was an absolutely terrible defender in college.
Both guys have less than 2 years in the league with this shortened season and it's typically a big learning curve to play against college bigs and then play against real NBA bigs. Who knows how much better they'll get? Ayton is already a 20/10 guy so he just needs to play better defense and he's a top Center in the league. He had some very solid performances in the bubble that helped that team beat some good teams (23/10 to beat Indy, 18/12 to beat Miami, 19/7/4 to beat the Clippers). Bagley has further to go but injuries have stifled his development thus far and in the right high pace system can be very valuable.
I guess the piece that confuses me is you are always touting Towns for the points and rebounds on the stat sheet so why would that not be the same with a guy like Wiseman? Why does Towns get the free pass and it's on Wiseman to cover that hole up? Wiseman is a 20/10 guy because his relentlessness on the offensive glass and he runs the floor well so it's a different skillset from Towns. I see it like adding a bigger, faster Tristan Thompson who has the potential to shoot down the line (his high school stats while a small sample size has him 8/16 from 3 in 10 games for his AAU team in 2018).
At some point just having a bunch of 7 footers has to mean something for defense at the rim. It's a different game when a 7 footer is rotating to help than a guy like Covington or James Johnson. At the end of the day I think Bennett will be bad unless he goes to GS to learn how to play basketball properly in a proper system and Ball will be like a worse Ricky Rubio because he won't play defense so I'll take the 20/10 guy and figure out the defense later.
Why does Towns get a free pass and why is it on Wiseman to cover that hole up? That's a silly question. Towns doesn't get a free pass, The fact is, he's a poor defender - something I've mentioned dozens of times. I continue to hope he improves defensively. But right now, like it or not, KAT's poor defense means we need to balance our front line with really good interior defenders. The reason I'd be inclined to draft Wiseman mainly because of his defensive potential. KAT's elite offensive game gives the Wolves the luxury of drafting a big whose strength is primarily defense. We don't have much of a college track record to evaluate Wiseman's NBA potential. He's long and athletic, but he doesn't look particularly strong and seems a bit slow laterally. My thinking is that a 9'6 standing reach, coupled with impressive athleticism, will carry the day and make him a good NBA defender.
I think you meant Anthony Edwards, not Anthony Bennett. :). The Wolves will probably draft Edwards and he'll end up as bad as Bennett. :(
His FTRate of .67, averaging 9 a game at 82% and absurd 76% finishing around the rim are insane for a below the rim player. He has a great step back and a good ability to get to the rim, where he is super crafty. Jones is a bit streaky from 3 at 35% over 6+ attempts, but he can get hot in a hurry.
Not to mention he has really only played 2 seasons as a guard/wing after dropping 60 or so lbs in 4 years from 270 to 210. , Senior year, then One year at a community college, and this last two at Arkansas.
Reportedly has increased his vertical from 24in to 36in over this 7 month offseason. Shows me he has untapped athleticism after such a big body change.
There are clips in the article showing him taking it to the rim on Okoro and Edward's, so he can get by nba level athlete defenders, utilizing his body extremely well.
https://youtu.be/18B4gb3h2cY
I'm really impressed how he is decisive when catching a pass and attacking the rim.
I see Charlotte as likely the most aggressive to make trade. Issue.....none of their young players do anything for me. Bridges, PJ....meh. Decent guys? Sure. Neither helps our defense, and neither stands out as more than an average player.
My opinion, but I would only make deal if 2021 protected pick is included. And not sure I do that if I am Charlotte.
Hicks123 wrote:I see Charlotte as likely the most aggressive to make trade. Issue.....none of their young players do anything for me. Bridges, PJ....meh. Decent guys? Sure. Neither helps our defense, and neither stands out as more than an average player.
My opinion, but I would only make deal if 2021 protected pick is included. And not sure I do that if I am Charlotte.
I largely agree with your take, but P.J. Washington is a bit more than "meh" for me, personally. He's very nice piece for the Hornets -- one that I could see Gersson Rosas coveting.
Again, I'd rather have James Wiseman over Washington and the third overall pick, but that's a really solid get for moving down a couple spots if the Wolves choose to go in a different direction.
Hicks123 wrote:I see Charlotte as likely the most aggressive to make trade. Issue.....none of their young players do anything for me. Bridges, PJ....meh. Decent guys? Sure. Neither helps our defense, and neither stands out as more than an average player.
My opinion, but I would only make deal if 2021 protected pick is included. And not sure I do that if I am Charlotte.
I largely agree with your take, but P.J. Washington is a bit more than "meh" for me, personally. He's very nice piece for the Hornets -- one that I could see Gersson Rosas coveting.
Again, I'd rather have James Wiseman over Washington and the third overall pick, but that's a really solid get for moving down a couple spots if the Wolves choose to go in a different direction.
I would easily pass on Bridges over a future first. I would easily take PJ over a future first.
Agreed on just taking Wiseman #1, but #3+ PJ would make me pause. I would look to trade down again there.
Hicks123 wrote:I see Charlotte as likely the most aggressive to make trade. Issue.....none of their young players do anything for me. Bridges, PJ....meh. Decent guys? Sure. Neither helps our defense, and neither stands out as more than an average player.
My opinion, but I would only make deal if 2021 protected pick is included. And not sure I do that if I am Charlotte.
I largely agree with your take, but P.J. Washington is a bit more than "meh" for me, personally. He's very nice piece for the Hornets -- one that I could see Gersson Rosas coveting.
Again, I'd rather have James Wiseman over Washington and the third overall pick, but that's a really solid get for moving down a couple spots if the Wolves choose to go in a different direction.
I can see folks liking PJ....he is just not my cup of tea for the Wolves. While he shoots 3's at a decent clip, his size and poor defensive metrics don't point to a solid fit to pair with Towns. Horrible rebounder for position, and brings nothing in blocks and steals. I know blocks and steals don't automatically signify a great defensive players, but with Towns, we need someone that stands out in this area. I feel like players of PJ's caliber are available with mid-level.
I am with you, I would keep and draft Wiseman over #3 and PJ.
Hicks123 wrote:I see Charlotte as likely the most aggressive to make trade. Issue.....none of their young players do anything for me. Bridges, PJ....meh. Decent guys? Sure. Neither helps our defense, and neither stands out as more than an average player.
My opinion, but I would only make deal if 2021 protected pick is included. And not sure I do that if I am Charlotte.
I largely agree with your take, but P.J. Washington is a bit more than "meh" for me, personally. He's very nice piece for the Hornets -- one that I could see Gersson Rosas coveting.
Again, I'd rather have James Wiseman over Washington and the third overall pick, but that's a really solid get for moving down a couple spots if the Wolves choose to go in a different direction.
I can see folks liking PJ....he is just not my cup of tea for the Wolves. While he shoots 3's at a decent clip, his size and poor defensive metrics don't point to a solid fit to pair with Towns. Horrible rebounder for position, and brings nothing in blocks and steals. I know blocks and steals don't automatically signify a great defensive players, but with Towns, we need someone that stands out in this area. I feel like players of PJ's caliber are available with mid-level.
I am with you, I would keep and draft Wiseman over #3 and PJ.
Almost 2 stocks a game per 36. 6.5 rebounds per 36. 1.6 or so and about 5 at his 30 mins a game. 37.5% 3pt shooter.
I would take that 21 year old bird in the hand over a future pick.
Those Edwards handles make the Wiggins comparisons kind of silly from an isolated basketball skill perspective. If Wiggins had Edwards skill with the ball we probably would have kept him. Edwards is built like a truck too. I don't fully understand the statement how Edwards came to college a year early? Is he just young for his draft year or does anyone know why they keep saying that?
