Might as well talk draft....

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Camden [enjin:6601484]
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Re: Might as well talk draft....

Post by Camden [enjin:6601484] »

PorkChop wrote:
Camden0916 wrote:
lipoli390 wrote:Thoughts on this potential deal with the Kicks?

KNICKS GET:
Wolves #1 pick
James Johnson
Jacob Evans
Omari Spellman
Rights to Sixers 2022 2nd round pck

WOLVES GET
Knicks #8 pick
Knicks 2021 1st round pick (top 3 protected, then unprotected in 2022)
Rights to Hornets 2021 2nd round pick
Knicks #27 this year
Bobby Portis


For me, any deal with the Knicks for the first overall pick needs to include Mitchell Robinson and the No. 8 pick in this year's draft.

Wolves:
- Mitchell Robinson
- No. 8 overall pick
- No. 27 overall pick
- 2021 first-round pick (NYK)

Knicks:
- Omari Spellman
- No. 1 overall pick
- No. 17 overall pick

That would be a quality return for the Wolves in my view while the Knicks significantly move up from two draft slots. In the end, I still think standing pat and taking James Wiseman would be the better move, but I would have to consider this for the value it brings now and in the future. And the Knicks may value the potential of a LaMelo Ball over any other asset involved in this trade.

Do you think there's any chance of moving down a few spots and still getting Wisemen?


I do not. I don't see him getting past Golden State or Charlotte if Minnesota passes on him.
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WildWolf2813
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Re: Might as well talk draft....

Post by WildWolf2813 »

lipoli390 wrote:Thoughts on this potential deal with the Kicks?

KNICKS GET:
Wolves #1 pick
James Johnson
Jacob Evans
Omari Spellman
Rights to Sixers 2022 2nd round pck

WOLVES GET
Knicks #8 pick
Knicks 2021 1st round pick (top 3 protected, then unprotected in 2022)
Rights to Hornets 2021 2nd round pick
Knicks #27 this year
Bobby Portis

Portis has a $15 mil team option which I doubt the Knicks pick up.



Also, I just don't think the Wolves want to have so many assets in this draft that will depreciate. Having #8, #17, #27 and #33, something has to give. It would be nice to kick the can down the road and swap those for future picks but I don't see that happening.


The Knicks love Mitchell Robinson more than y'all wanna acknowledge. They want his fouls to go down, but they wanna give him a shot under Thibs to realize his potential. Also, out here in NY, I think Knicks fans, as much as they like LaMelo Ball, they've become very comfortable staying at #8, getting a potential two way guy and keeping their assets for a rainy day, the kind of thing we wanna accomplish by trading down, because let's be honest, we're gonna be running real low on assets after this year and if the targets Rosas wants finally emerge, he's not gonna have a way of getting them.
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Porckchop
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Re: Might as well talk draft....

Post by Porckchop »

WildWolf2813 wrote:
lipoli390 wrote:Thoughts on this potential deal with the Kicks?

KNICKS GET:
Wolves #1 pick
James Johnson
Jacob Evans
Omari Spellman
Rights to Sixers 2022 2nd round pck

WOLVES GET
Knicks #8 pick
Knicks 2021 1st round pick (top 3 protected, then unprotected in 2022)
Rights to Hornets 2021 2nd round pick
Knicks #27 this year
Bobby Portis

Portis has a $15 mil team option which I doubt the Knicks pick up.



Also, I just don't think the Wolves want to have so many assets in this draft that will depreciate. Having #8, #17, #27 and #33, something has to give. It would be nice to kick the can down the road and swap those for future picks but I don't see that happening.


The Knicks love Mitchell Robinson more than y'all wanna acknowledge. They want his fouls to go down, but they wanna give him a shot under Thibs to realize his potential. Also, out here in NY, I think Knicks fans, as much as they like LaMelo Ball, they've become very comfortable staying at #8, getting a potential two way guy and keeping their assets for a rainy day, the kind of thing we wanna accomplish by trading down, because let's be honest, we're gonna be running real low on assets after this year and if the targets Rosas wants finally emerge, he's not gonna have a way of getting them.


You know the fans in New York don't have any say in who the Knicks pick right?
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SameOldNudityDrew
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Re: Might as well talk draft....

Post by SameOldNudityDrew »

WildWolf2813 wrote:
lipoli390 wrote:Thoughts on this potential deal with the Kicks?

KNICKS GET:
Wolves #1 pick
James Johnson
Jacob Evans
Omari Spellman
Rights to Sixers 2022 2nd round pck

WOLVES GET
Knicks #8 pick
Knicks 2021 1st round pick (top 3 protected, then unprotected in 2022)
Rights to Hornets 2021 2nd round pick
Knicks #27 this year
Bobby Portis

Portis has a $15 mil team option which I doubt the Knicks pick up.



Also, I just don't think the Wolves want to have so many assets in this draft that will depreciate. Having #8, #17, #27 and #33, something has to give. It would be nice to kick the can down the road and swap those for future picks but I don't see that happening.


The Knicks love Mitchell Robinson more than y'all wanna acknowledge. They want his fouls to go down, but they wanna give him a shot under Thibs to realize his potential. Also, out here in NY, I think Knicks fans, as much as they like LaMelo Ball, they've become very comfortable staying at #8, getting a potential two way guy and keeping their assets for a rainy day, the kind of thing we wanna accomplish by trading down, because let's be honest, we're gonna be running real low on assets after this year and if the targets Rosas wants finally emerge, he's not gonna have a way of getting them.


Sadly, that's exactly why I'd love Lip's trade for us if we could get it. Too many questions with these top 3 guys, too many safer role-player bets in the mid-lottery, and the next couple drafts definitely look better (plus we don't have a first-round pick next year). The big salaries of those top picks could be ugly if they bust. Problem is, everybody else thinks that too so it'll be tough to trade down.

In terms of having the 3 first rounders this year and the high second rounder, yeah, playing time wouldn't be ideal, especially with Okogie and Culver still needing minutes to develop. But definitely a couple of those picks could spend some time in the G league. Or maybe you could flip one of those picks for another future first to balance out the inflow of draft picks.

Here's a question. What's the list of guys you'd be willing to take if we absolutely can't trade down from #1? Would you be willing just take one of these safer role-players even at #1? A bird in the hand? I mean, if it weren't for lottery luck, we'd be sitting at 6 or something and we'd probably all be relatively happy with taking a guy like Vassell, Okongwu, Okoro, Avdija or hell, maybe even Maxey or Nesmith, right? If we'd be happy with them at 6, but unhappy with some of these other guys at 1, shouldn't we be relatively happy with one of those guys at 1? I mean, the salary difference would hurt. But if we'd be happy with one of those guys at 6, why not just take them at 1 if we're not happy with the alternatives at 1 and we can't trade down? Is it just that we'd be afraid that one of the top guys actually would pan out and then we'd look like idiots? I feel like that's the kind of peer-pressure induced picking that can lead to mistakes. What do you guys think? If we can't trade down, would you be willing to pick someone else over Edwards, Wiseman, or Ball, and if so, who? I'd like to see those lists.
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Lipoli390
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Re: Might as well talk draft....

Post by Lipoli390 »

WildWolf2813 wrote:
lipoli390 wrote:Thoughts on this potential deal with the Kicks?

KNICKS GET:
Wolves #1 pick
James Johnson
Jacob Evans
Omari Spellman
Rights to Sixers 2022 2nd round pck

WOLVES GET
Knicks #8 pick
Knicks 2021 1st round pick (top 3 protected, then unprotected in 2022)
Rights to Hornets 2021 2nd round pick
Knicks #27 this year
Bobby Portis

Portis has a $15 mil team option which I doubt the Knicks pick up.



Also, I just don't think the Wolves want to have so many assets in this draft that will depreciate. Having #8, #17, #27 and #33, something has to give. It would be nice to kick the can down the road and swap those for future picks but I don't see that happening.


The Knicks love Mitchell Robinson more than y'all wanna acknowledge. They want his fouls to go down, but they wanna give him a shot under Thibs to realize his potential. Also, out here in NY, I think Knicks fans, as much as they like LaMelo Ball, they've become very comfortable staying at #8, getting a potential two way guy and keeping their assets for a rainy day, the kind of thing we wanna accomplish by trading down, because let's be honest, we're gonna be running real low on assets after this year and if the targets Rosas wants finally emerge, he's not gonna have a way of getting them.


I agree with you on the value the Knicks place on Mitchell Robinson. That's why I didn't include him in the potential deal I posted. They wouldn't trade Robinson plus their 1st round pick in next year's draft to move up for Ball. But If I were Rosas, I'd ask. I think there's a good chance the Knicks exercise their option on Portis. It's only one year and the Knicks are way under the cap even with his salary. The big-time free agents the Knicks would likely pursue won't be available until next year anyway. In any event, I'm not hyped about getting Portis. The key get for the Wolves in any draft swap with the Knicks would be the Knicks 2021 1st round pick unprotected or with minimal protection. I also see value in getting the Hornets' 2021 second round pick and additional value in getting the Knicks to take Jacob Evans and Omani Spellman to clear a couple roster spots.
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Lipoli390
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Re: Might as well talk draft....

Post by Lipoli390 »

SameOldNudityDrew wrote:
WildWolf2813 wrote:
lipoli390 wrote:Thoughts on this potential deal with the Kicks?

KNICKS GET:
Wolves #1 pick
James Johnson
Jacob Evans
Omari Spellman
Rights to Sixers 2022 2nd round pck

WOLVES GET
Knicks #8 pick
Knicks 2021 1st round pick (top 3 protected, then unprotected in 2022)
Rights to Hornets 2021 2nd round pick
Knicks #27 this year
Bobby Portis

Portis has a $15 mil team option which I doubt the Knicks pick up.



Also, I just don't think the Wolves want to have so many assets in this draft that will depreciate. Having #8, #17, #27 and #33, something has to give. It would be nice to kick the can down the road and swap those for future picks but I don't see that happening.


The Knicks love Mitchell Robinson more than y'all wanna acknowledge. They want his fouls to go down, but they wanna give him a shot under Thibs to realize his potential. Also, out here in NY, I think Knicks fans, as much as they like LaMelo Ball, they've become very c
omfortable staying at #8, getting a potential two way guy and keeping their assets for a rainy day
, the kind of thing we wanna accomplish by trading down, because let's be honest, we're gonna be running real low on assets after this year and if the targets Rosas wants finally emerge, he's not gonna have a way of getting them.


Sadly, that's exactly why I'd love Lip's trade for us if we could get it. Too many questions with these top 3 guys, too many safer role-player bets in the mid-lottery, and the next couple drafts definitely look better (plus we don't have a first-round pick next year). The big salaries of those top picks could be ugly if they bust. Problem is, everybody else thinks that too so it'll be tough to trade down.

In terms of having the 3 first rounders this year and the high second rounder, yeah, playing time wouldn't be ideal, especially with Okogie and Culver still needing minutes to develop. But definitely a couple of those picks could spend some time in the G league. Or maybe you could flip one of those picks for another future first to balance out the inflow of draft picks.

Here's a question. What's the list of guys you'd be willing to take if we absolutely can't trade down from #1? Would you be willing just take one of these safer role-players even at #1? A bird in the hand? I mean, if it weren't for lottery luck, we'd be sitting at 6 or something and we'd probably all be relatively happy with taking a guy like Vassell, Okongwu, Okoro, Avdija or hell, maybe even Maxey or Nesmith, right? If we'd be happy with them at 6, but unhappy with some of these other guys at 1, shouldn't we be relatively happy with one of those guys at 1? I mean, the salary difference would hurt. But if we'd be happy with one of those guys at 6, why not just take them at 1 if we're not happy with the alternatives at 1 and we can't trade down? Is it just that we'd be afraid that one of the top guys actually would pan out and then we'd look like idiots? I feel like that's the kind of peer-pressure induced picking that can lead to mistakes. What do you guys think? If we can't trade down, would you be willing to pick someone else over Edwards, Wiseman, or Ball, and if so, who? I'd like to see those lists.



Great question, Drew. If I absolutely couldn't trade down, I'm be inclined to take Okongwu and accept the criticism that would comes along with making that pick, although admittedly it would be hard to pass on Edwards and Wiseman, while not quite as hard to pass on Ball. My inclination is based on my view that Okongwu's upside is almost on par with the upside of the top 3. I see so much Bam Adebayo in him and his college stats were elite for a freshman. At the same time, no one is questioning his motor or basketball IQ. In fact, he's been widely praised for having a great motor. Hence, I think he has a high probability of reaching what I consider to be his all-star potential/Bam Adebayo potential.

My view of Okongwu is probably why I wouldn't do the potential Knicks deal I posted. I'm convinced that Okongwu will be gone by #8. But I do have a second tier of talented high-motor players I like as lottery picks, including Vassell, Deni, Haliburton, Killian Hayes and Patrick Williams. At least a couple of those guys will likely be available at #8. I'd actually be in a quandary if picking at #8. If Vassell were available at #8, it would be hard to pass on him because he strikes me as a can't miss solid 3&D player who has the upside to become something more. Deni is an exciting player with a great motor and swagger who I think has all-star potential. It would be hard to pass on him and his unique combination of size and playmaking skills. But my favorite in that group is Patrick Williams. He's not nearly as NBA ready as the others, but I see him having as much upside as just about anyone in this draft.
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Lipoli390
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Re: Might as well talk draft....

Post by Lipoli390 »

WildWolf2813 wrote:
lipoli390 wrote:Thoughts on this potential deal with the Kicks?

KNICKS GET:
Wolves #1 pick
James Johnson
Jacob Evans
Omari Spellman
Rights to Sixers 2022 2nd round pck

WOLVES GET
Knicks #8 pick
Knicks 2021 1st round pick (top 3 protected, then unprotected in 2022)
Rights to Hornets 2021 2nd round pick
Knicks #27 this year
Bobby Portis

Portis has a $15 mil team option which I doubt the Knicks pick up.



Also, I just don't think the Wolves want to have so many assets in this draft that will depreciate. Having #8, #17, #27 and #33, something has to give. It would be nice to kick the can down the road and swap those for future picks but I don't see that happening.


The Knicks love Mitchell Robinson more than y'all wanna acknowledge. They want his fouls to go down, but they wanna give him a shot under Thibs to realize his potential. Also, out here in NY, I think Knicks fans, as much as they like LaMelo Ball, they've become very comfortable staying at #8, getting a potential two way guy and keeping their assets for a rainy day, the kind of thing we wanna accomplish by trading down, because let's be honest, we're gonna be running real low on assets after this year and if the targets Rosas wants finally emerge, he's not gonna have a way of getting them.


As I see it, the purpose of getting the Knicks #27 pick would be to package it with our #17 pick to move up for a chance at drafting someone like Saddiq Bey or Patrick Williams.
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Lipoli390
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Re: Might as well talk draft....

Post by Lipoli390 »

I thought about writing this post in the Inside the Bubble thread, but I think it fits better here. As I was looking at the teams that made it to the Bubble and who have had the most success I was struck by the fact that none of the key players on any of those teams (except the Lakers) was a top 2 draft pick. I was also struck by how many of those key players weren't even drafted in the top 5 or in many cases not even in the top 10.

It's just a reminder that the Wolves should be comfortable trading down from #1. It should also serve as a reminder that all three of the Wolves picks this year - #1, 17 and 33 have considerable value. Sadly, looking at the list of players on these teams, it's also a reminder of how often the Wolves have screwed up their past draft opportunities. Here are some of those key players and their draft position. I put an asterisk by those who are or have been all-star caliber players. But all the others are also very good NBA players who have been instrumental in the success of their respective teams this year:

TORONTO
*Siakam - #27
Anunoby - #23
VanVleet - Undrafted
*Lowry - #24

BOSTON
*Tatum - #3
*Brown - #3
Smart - #6
*Kemba - #9

DENVER
*Murray - #7
*Jokic - #41
Porter Jr. - #14
G. Harris - #19
J. Grant - #39
*Millsap - #47
Monte Morris - #51

CLIPPERS
*Kawhi - #15
*P. George - #10
P. Beverley - #42
Marcus Morris - #14
M. Harrell - #32
Lou Williams - #45
Zubac - #32
Shamet - #26

BUCKS
*Giannis - #15
*Middleton - #39
B. Lopez - #10
Bledsoe - #18
DiVincenzo - #17
George Hill - #26

MIAMi
*Bam Adebayo - #14
*Butler - #30
Jae Crowder - #34
D. Robinson - Undrafted
*Dragic - #45
Herro - #13
Nunn - Undrafted

HOUSTON
*Harden - #3
*Westbrook - #4
Covington - Undrafted
Eric Gordon - #7
Tucker - #35
House - Undrafted
Austin Rivers - #10

JAZZ
*Gobert - #27
*Mitchell - #13
Ingles - Undrafted
*Mike Conley - #4
Royce O'Neal - Undrafted

OKC
*SGA - #11
Steven Adams - #12
*Chris Paul - #4
Gallinari - #6
Dort - Undrafted
Schroder - #17
Bailey - #23

PORTLAND
*Lillard - #6
*McCollum - #10
Nurkic - #16
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Camden [enjin:6601484]
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Re: Might as well talk draft....

Post by Camden [enjin:6601484] »

NETS:
- Kyrie Irving (No. 1)
- Kevin Durant (No. 2)
- Caris LeVert (No. 20)
- Jarrett Allen (No. 22)

SIXERS:
- Ben Simmons (No. 1)
- Joel Embiid (No. 3)
- Al Horford (No. 3)
- Tobias Harris (No. 19)

LAKERS:
- LeBron James (No. 1)
- Anthony Davis (No. 1)
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (No. 8 )
- Markieff Morris (No. 13)

WIZARDS (in the past):
- John Wall (No. 1)
- Bradley Beal (No. 3)
- Otto Porter (No. 3)

This post isn't meant to discredit or even oppose Lip's, but it's to show that teams can build in various ways to include an accumulation of players that were at one point drafted very high in the draft. The most-necessary point here is that teams have to hit on these picks when they're selecting at the top of the draft.
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thedoper
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Re: Might as well talk draft....

Post by thedoper »

Yes you have to hit on the draft pick. If we trade down or up, can Rosas do it? Last year he traded up and whiffed. Could he trade down and hit? Either way its essential to get this right. I personally have more confidence in him making a deal for a proven commodity than in drafting. But he has only had one draft so far so lets give it a whirl, its only the future of the franchise on the line.
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