Bust thread

[Monster]

I don't like the Flynn Dunn comp much actually. Probably the biggest issue is Flynn's hip problem which became a problem late in his rookie year and pretty much ended what would in my mind like Lip said at least been a decent career. It's just not fair to compare Dunn to a guy that really never had a chance to become something because of injury. Once again this is also why Ulis is likely dropped so much in the draft. Hip injuries are bad bad news just ask Percy Harvin.

One of the biggest problems I have with Dunn is his FT%. I would assume he can improve but in 3 years of college he hasn't. I am not a huge fan of his jumper. It looks ok but then he can't shoot FTs? That makes me worried. If he can't shoot FTs late in a game that's something to be concerned about and he has some attributes even as a rotation player you would want at the end of games.

[TheFuture]

My bust guy has to be Bender. The guy has shown nothing outside potential (due to height) to deserve a top 10 nod. I get he is 18, but man, he certainly feels the most risky. Chriss also scares me. Although, in videos, you can see why folks love him. Sky-high athleticism, and a sweet looking jumper. Also, he is still only 18. Seems like a guy that may be high potential...but may take 2-3 years of waiting.

With Chriss, I just can't see him succeeding in the NBA. He floats around often on offense. He's not a good defender. He has some highlight reel plays sure, but there was more bad with him. At 6'10 with freakish athleticism you should be averaging more than 5.4 rebounds a game when you play at Washington. The biggest red flag has to be his bball IQ though. Chriss averaged over 4 fouls a game, and fouled out in over 15 games, including 6 straight. I can't see a NBA coach being patient enough to teach a guy who's so far behind on understanding the game. His athleticism alone can get you through highschool and college, the NBA not so much.

[Coolbreeze44]

My bust guy has to be Bender. The guy has shown nothing outside potential (due to height) to deserve a top 10 nod. I get he is 18, but man, he certainly feels the most risky. Chriss also scares me. Although, in videos, you can see why folks love him. Sky-high athleticism, and a sweet looking jumper. Also, he is still only 18. Seems like a guy that may be high potential...but may take 2-3 years of waiting.

With Chriss, I just can't see him succeeding in the NBA. He floats around often on offense. He's not a good defender. He has some highlight reel plays sure, but there was more bad with him. At 6'10 with freakish athleticism you should be averaging more than 5.4 rebounds a game when you play at Washington. The biggest red flag has to be his bball IQ though. Chriss averaged over 4 fouls a game, and fouled out in over 15 games, including 6 straight. I can't see a NBA coach being patient enough to teach a guy who's so far behind on understanding the game. His athleticism alone can get you through highschool and college, the NBA not so much.

Isn't that Stromile to a tee?

[Hicks123 [enjin:6700838]]

My bust guy has to be Bender. The guy has shown nothing outside potential (due to height) to deserve a top 10 nod. I get he is 18, but man, he certainly feels the most risky. Chriss also scares me. Although, in videos, you can see why folks love him. Sky-high athleticism, and a sweet looking jumper. Also, he is still only 18. Seems like a guy that may be high potential...but may take 2-3 years of waiting.

With Chriss, I just can't see him succeeding in the NBA. He floats around often on offense. He's not a good defender. He has some highlight reel plays sure, but there was more bad with him. At 6'10 with freakish athleticism you should be averaging more than 5.4 rebounds a game when you play at Washington. The biggest red flag has to be his bball IQ though. Chriss averaged over 4 fouls a game, and fouled out in over 15 games, including 6 straight. I can't see a NBA coach being patient enough to teach a guy who's so far behind on understanding the game. His athleticism alone can get you through highschool and college, the NBA not so much.

Isn't that Stromile to a tee?

I actually agree with this. Like I said, on tape you can see why teams may fall in love. But in real life, he is a long ways away from a fundamental standpoint. That's why I see him as a longer term investment for the team that drafts him. But if his IQ never catches up with his athleticism, he has little chance of becoming anything more than a bench big.

[TheFuture]

I don't like the Flynn Dunn comp much actually. Probably the biggest issue is Flynn's hip problem which became a problem late in his rookie year and pretty much ended what would in my mind like Lip said at least been a decent career. It's just not fair to compare Dunn to a guy that really never had a chance to become something because of injury. Once again this is also why Ulis is likely dropped so much in the draft. Hip injuries are bad bad news just ask Percy Harvin.

One of the biggest problems I have with Dunn is his FT%. I would assume he can improve but in 3 years of college he hasn't. I am not a huge fan of his jumper. It looks ok but then he can't shoot FTs? That makes me worried. If he can't shoot FTs late in a game that's something to be concerned about and he has some attributes even as a rotation player you would want at the end of games.

Fortunately for us, we don't need to worry about Dunn's FT shooting in the fourth quarter. 70% free throw shooting does not make him unplayable though. Like has been stated many times here, Dunn was the man in college and was made to force the issue on offense. That wouldn't be the case here, as we don't need him to be a 20ppg scorer. He's going to come in and contribute defensively right away, facilitate for teammates, and is a much better bet than Ricky to go off for those 15-20 pts on any given night. You can bag on his shooting, but he is already a better scorer than Ricky.

On the other end of the spectrum, i imagine the Wolves having a 5 point lead with a few mins to go and having Rubio, Dunn, and Wiggins locking down the perimeter opponents. That sounds exciting to me.

[TheFuture]

My bust guy has to be Bender. The guy has shown nothing outside potential (due to height) to deserve a top 10 nod. I get he is 18, but man, he certainly feels the most risky. Chriss also scares me. Although, in videos, you can see why folks love him. Sky-high athleticism, and a sweet looking jumper. Also, he is still only 18. Seems like a guy that may be high potential...but may take 2-3 years of waiting.

With Chriss, I just can't see him succeeding in the NBA. He floats around often on offense. He's not a good defender. He has some highlight reel plays sure, but there was more bad with him. At 6'10 with freakish athleticism you should be averaging more than 5.4 rebounds a game when you play at Washington. The biggest red flag has to be his bball IQ though. Chriss averaged over 4 fouls a game, and fouled out in over 15 games, including 6 straight. I can't see a NBA coach being patient enough to teach a guy who's so far behind on understanding the game. His athleticism alone can get you through highschool and college, the NBA not so much.

Isn't that Stromile to a tee?

I actually agree with this. Like I said, on tape you can see why teams may fall in love. But in real life, he is a long ways away from a fundamental standpoint. That's why I see him as a longer term investment for the team that drafts him. But if his IQ never catches up with his athleticism, he has little chance of becoming anything more than a bench big.

For Chriss, getting picked somewhere 18-30 would be understandable, as those teams have good veterans, lots of experience, and the ability to develop him/take the risk over 3 years. Going top 10 is a nightmare scenario for Chriss, in my opinion. Those teams will likely throw him on the court way before he's ready.

[Monster]

I don't like the Flynn Dunn comp much actually. Probably the biggest issue is Flynn's hip problem which became a problem late in his rookie year and pretty much ended what would in my mind like Lip said at least been a decent career. It's just not fair to compare Dunn to a guy that really never had a chance to become something because of injury. Once again this is also why Ulis is likely dropped so much in the draft. Hip injuries are bad bad news just ask Percy Harvin.

One of the biggest problems I have with Dunn is his FT%. I would assume he can improve but in 3 years of college he hasn't. I am not a huge fan of his jumper. It looks ok but then he can't shoot FTs? That makes me worried. If he can't shoot FTs late in a game that's something to be concerned about and he has some attributes even as a rotation player you would want at the end of games.

Fortunately for us, we don't need to worry about Dunn's FT shooting in the fourth quarter. 70% free throw shooting does not make him unplayable though. Like has been stated many times here, Dunn was the man in college and was made to force the issue on offense. That wouldn't be the case here, as we don't need him to be a 20ppg scorer. He's going to come in and contribute defensively right away, facilitate for teammates, and is a much better bet than Ricky to go off for those 15-20 pts on any given night. You can bag on his shooting, but he is already a better scorer than Ricky.

If we aren't worried about a guy's low FT percentage in the 4th quarter...then that means he won't be a high level player right? That's my point. I don't see the massive upside with Dunn that's all I don't think he will suck.

[Coolbreeze44]

A bust is typically a physically gifted player who generates high expectations and then fails miserably to come anywhere close to meeting those expectations. Some prominent examples who have found their way onto past Wolves rosters include JR Rider, Rashaad McCants, Darko, Kandiman and Wes Johnson. Derrick Williams isn't quite bad enough in my view to be considered a bust, but he's pretty close.

The common thread, other than a medical condition or injury, that seems to run through all NBA busts is the lack of a high motor or to a lesser degree a low basketball IQ. Sometimes it's substance abuse. Nearly all of them had a draft report somewhere questioning their motor. For example, I remember Hoiberg telling me that Derrick Williams liked the NBA lifestyle more than he liked basketball. That's another way of saying Derrick didn't have much of a motor. Smiling Wes was just happy to hang out and talk with the guys on the bench. Darko had no motor. Rider was motivated by his love of drugs and his homies, not by basketball. I remember the rap on him coming out of college was that he only played hard in nationally televised games. The rap on McCants was his questionable motor. The list goes on.

So you ask who I consider most likely to be a bust in this draft class. I'll just do some Internet research and make a list of all those top prospects who have some questions written by someone about their motor. The ones least likely to become busts are those who are regarded as having both a high level of talent and a high-revving motor.

Great post. One nitpick. If Rider is a bust than D-Will is more so. At least Rider was highly productive for a few years.

There are things to like about Dunn but I don't think he's a no-brainer. I have no doubt he will be a rotation player on a good team, but I'm guessing there will be guys I like better at #5. Namely Murray and Bender.

[Monster]

A bust is typically a physically gifted player who generates high expectations and then fails miserably to come anywhere close to meeting those expectations. Some prominent examples who have found their way onto past Wolves rosters include JR Rider, Rashaad McCants, Darko, Kandiman and Wes Johnson. Derrick Williams isn't quite bad enough in my view to be considered a bust, but he's pretty close.

The common thread, other than a medical condition or injury, that seems to run through all NBA busts is the lack of a high motor or to a lesser degree a low basketball IQ. Sometimes it's substance abuse. Nearly all of them had a draft report somewhere questioning their motor. For example, I remember Hoiberg telling me that Derrick Williams liked the NBA lifestyle more than he liked basketball. That's another way of saying Derrick didn't have much of a motor. Smiling Wes was just happy to hang out and talk with the guys on the bench. Darko had no motor. Rider was motivated by his love of drugs and his homies, not by basketball. I remember the rap on him coming out of college was that he only played hard in nationally televised games. The rap on McCants was his questionable motor. The list goes on.

So you ask who I consider most likely to be a bust in this draft class. I'll just do some Internet research and make a list of all those top prospects who have some questions written by someone about their motor. The ones least likely to become busts are those who are regarded as having both a high level of talent and a high-revving motor.

Great post. One nitpick. If Rider is a bust than D-Will is more so. At least Rider was highly productive for a few years.

With stats... yes. But he might have been a worse player for the team... if that makes sense.

He was just so destructive.

Ok I just thought that was weird to call one guy a bust that at least did something while another guy did nothing and isn't considered one.

D-Will is a bust. He is/was a bench players or starter for a bad team. He has scored over 10ppg once in his career and that was as a starter and what he was/is supposed to do is score. #2 overall pick the dude is a bust.

[TheFuture]

I don't like the Flynn Dunn comp much actually. Probably the biggest issue is Flynn's hip problem which became a problem late in his rookie year and pretty much ended what would in my mind like Lip said at least been a decent career. It's just not fair to compare Dunn to a guy that really never had a chance to become something because of injury. Once again this is also why Ulis is likely dropped so much in the draft. Hip injuries are bad bad news just ask Percy Harvin.

One of the biggest problems I have with Dunn is his FT%. I would assume he can improve but in 3 years of college he hasn't. I am not a huge fan of his jumper. It looks ok but then he can't shoot FTs? That makes me worried. If he can't shoot FTs late in a game that's something to be concerned about and he has some attributes even as a rotation player you would want at the end of games.

Fortunately for us, we don't need to worry about Dunn's FT shooting in the fourth quarter. 70% free throw shooting does not make him unplayable though. Like has been stated many times here, Dunn was the man in college and was made to force the issue on offense. That wouldn't be the case here, as we don't need him to be a 20ppg scorer. He's going to come in and contribute defensively right away, facilitate for teammates, and is a much better bet than Ricky to go off for those 15-20 pts on any given night. You can bag on his shooting, but he is already a better scorer than Ricky.

If we aren't worried about a guy's low FT percentage in the 4th quarter...then that means he won't be a high level player right? That's my point. I don't see the massive upside with Dunn that's all I don't think he will suck.

I'm not worried about it no, and I do think he will be a high level player. It's unfair to assume Dunn won't improve his FT%, FG%, etc. over the next 3 years in a NBA program while assuming that Chriss will develop a brain, or jamal murray will grow tentacles and dancers feet, or hield will provide anything other than 3pt shooting, or Bender will actually provide anything, etc.

We currently know that Murray has great 3 point shooting ability, decent rebounding, and can put the ball on the deck adequately.
We know Hield provides elite 3 point shooting, decent rebounding, and decent defense.
We know nothing concrete about Bender outside of him being 7 feet and moves well.
We know Chriss has elite athleticism and an improving jumpshot.
Everything else is in question with these guys.

We know Dunn has elite athleticism, elite size/length/strength, plays great defense, has great vision (Those saying otherwise i'm not sure where you're getting that, as he led the NCAA in assists for most of the season ending up 2nd), good rebounding ability, good ballhandling, and decent scoring ability.

There are far less questions about Dunn, and I prefer the known commodity over the unknown.