Camden wrote:Call me a homer, but I'm just not ready to part with LaVine any more than I am Wiggins. I know most of the argument in their favor is based on potential, and I can see how that could get annoying or have the broken record effect after time, but they've also shown some legitimate evidence that they can play in this league already at 20/21 years old, albeit for a 29-win team. I also think their games are very complimentary to one another in that Wiggins is a slasher and LaVine is a shot-maker. It's also not too often you can pair two of the most explosive athletes on one team together. The last duo that I can think of that was comparable in this regard was Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady 15+ years ago in Toronto, and they never really got a chance to thrive together.
Keep them together. Maybe we shit the bed by not cashing in their potential for proven production, but I wanna see this thing through. Because if they do continue to improve, and they come anywhere near their supposed ceilings... Look out.
We are all homers on this message board. But that doesn't rebut your opinion or negate your analysis. I agree with you completely that swapping Zach as part of a package for Butler would be a mistake.
I happen to believe Zach will end up becoming at least as good as Butler overall. But even if he doesn't, swapping him for Butler would still be a mistake for the following reasons:
1. As you pointed out, Zach and Wiggins have far more complimentary games than Butler and Wiggins.'
2. Zach is already a far better 3-point shooter that Butler. Zach had a 38.9% 3-point percentage on 3.9 attempts last season. He hit 43.7% of his threes on 5.4 attempts after the allstar break. In contrast, Butler hit only 31.2% of his threes on 3.1 attempts. His career average is 32.8%. For a 3-point starved team like the Wolves, this disparity from behind the arc is a very big deal.
3. Zach has already bonded with and developed great chemistry with our two best core young players, KAT and Wiggins. No telling how well Butler would develop chemistry with these guys.
4. At age 26, Butler has likely reached his peak. No telling how long he'll plateau at his current level. At age 20, there is no doubt that Zach will get better. Moreover, Zach will peak at roughly the same time as Wiggins and KAT. Having all three core players on the same trajectory, peaking at the same time, enhances the chances of a championship and a sustained run.
5. Butler's durability is problematic compared to Zach. Butler has played more than 67 games in only one of his five seasons. That means Butler typically misses 20% of the season. In contrast, Zach has played nearly every game in both of his NBA seasons. No matter how much better Butler is, he has no value when he's not on the court.
As for whether Zach will eventually become as good or better than Butler, I think there's a very good chance Zach becomes the overall better player.
Physically, Butler is about 20 pounds heavier than Zach. But Zach has about the same length, is faster, quicker laterally and significantly more athletic. And Zach will definitely add more muscle weight over the next 6 years before he reaches Butler's current age.
Offensively, I think it's instructive to compare Zach's 2nd year stats with Butler's stats earlier in his career. Comparing Zach's second season to Butler's in comparable minutes, Zach had more points (14 v. 8.6), more assists (3.1 v. 1.4), a similar FG% (45.2 v. 46.7), and a better 3-point percentage on significantly more attempts. Zach's 2nd year stats were actually better than Butler's 3rd year stats in all those categories even though Butler averaged substantially more minutes per game. Zach's stats compare even more favorably when you consider the fact that Butler had 3 years of college compared to Zach's 1 college season off the bench. When you combine Zach's comparatively superior offensive stats at similar stages with his "gym rat" work ethic, I think it's highly likely Zach will become an overall better offensive player than Butler.
Defensively, I suspect that Zach will never be as good as Butler. But I also suspect that gap will close significantly. I keep coming back to Flip telling me that he thought Zach had the potential to be a great defender. He pointed to Zach's lateral quickness measured at the combine, but he also mentioned the Wolves' own research that showed opponents shooting only 25% from the field in college while being guarded by Zach. Zach was already showing substantial defensive improvement last season. Given his work ethic and Thib's influence, I think it's likely Zach becomes a very good defender.
We have this great opportunity to have these young guys grow together and form the core of a championship contender for years. I'd hate to see our front office squander that opportunity with taking what I think would be a short-sighted risk.
