Would you trade Wiggins for Butler straight up (poll)

[Shumway]

I think you guys have covered it all pretty well. Butler is clearly the superior player now, but Wiggins has the talent to exceed that and it would seem relatively likely (given what Wiggins has already delivered in terms of scoring and getting to the rim) that Wiggins will at least provide a strong, sustained level of performance for us over many years. The downside to keeping Wiggins seems very limited compared to that of acquiring Butler i.e. a decline in performance from Butler in the coming year(s) leaving us with limited return from him.

I'm sure we're all quite biased in our assessments, and it was an interesting comment that a poll on a Bulls board would likely be equally as lopsided the other way - but I'm sticking with Wiggins.

[Shumway]

19 votes declining trading Wig for Butler, and only Drew, Big O and I making the trade (and O has some conditions attached). That means almost all of us think Wig will be a better player than Butler. Wow...if that ends up being true and KAT reaches his ceiling, this club is going to be a dynasty (I'm not saying they won't be).

I think that's extrapolating a bit too far LST. We don't just look at one single potential outcome in making a decision. There's a whole range of things that may happen going forward and we weight all of those potential outcomes to get an overall view. i.e. Wiggins could turn into a 5 time MVP of the league with his talent. I think that's unlikely, and I'm not relying on it actually happening, but the potential payoff from that is enormous. The nature of asymmetric returns.

As noted in my post above, I think the downside scenarios of Wiggins vs Butler favours keeping Wiggins. That is, the downside scenario for Wiggins (discounting extreme downside scenarios) is that he plateaus about where he is and potentially provides that for the next 10 years. The downside scenario for Butler is that he does decline in the next year or two, and provides, say, 50 games a year of solid basketball for us over the next 3-4 years.

Now I'm sure that I'm biased in making those judgements, but that's the nature of sports banter.

For what it's worth, I think the most likely outcome is that Wiggins falls slightly short of Butler's output, but given his age, that he'll sustain a still very high level of play for us for many years. But the potential for him to exceed that is relatively high, while the potential for him to fall far short is relatively low.

[worldK]

No way. I wont trade wiggins or towns for anybody right now.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

How Butler ranks in advanced (and some basic) stats in the last two seasons combined:

Stat - Overall League Ranking/Overall SG Ranking:
PER - #11, #2
WS/48 - #8, #2
TS% - #16, #4
Pts/Gm - #13, #4
RPM - #22, #4
VORP - #12, #2
BPM - #11, #2

Conclusion - He's a top 15 player and top 4 shooting guard....at least. The Bulls should ask for a lot in return.

In my opinion, that is where Wiggins will ultimately end up - somewhere among the top 3 or 4 at his position and top 15 in the NBA, but likely not a perennial MVP candidate. I think he'll be a more prolific and efficient scorer than Butler, but not fill up the box score in the same way (which is why Butler does so well on PER, BPM, and Win Shares).

It is interesting because a straight-up trade basically gives us a better version of Andrew Wiggins right now without sacrificing the 3-point shooting of LaVine. But how durable is Butler? How much longer will he be a top 3 or 4 SG? How long before Wiggins' superior offensive chops overtake Butler's?

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

How Butler ranks in advanced (and some basic) stats in the last two seasons combined:

Stat - Overall League Ranking/Overall SG Ranking:
PER - #11, #2
WS/48 - #8, #2
TS% - #16, #4
Pts/Gm - #13, #4
RPM - #22, #4
VORP - #12, #2
BPM - #11, #2

Conclusion - He's a top 15 player and top 4 shooting guard....at least. The Bulls should ask for a lot in return.

In my opinion, that is where Wiggins will ultimately end up - somewhere among the top 3 or 4 at his position and top 15 in the NBA, but likely not a perennial MVP candidate. I think he'll be a more prolific and efficient scorer than Butler, but not fill up the box score in the same way (which is why Butler does so well on PER, BPM, and Win Shares).

It is interesting because a straight-up trade basically gives us a better version of Andrew Wiggins right now without sacrificing the 3-point shooting of LaVine. But how durable is Butler? How much longer will he be a top 3 or 4 SG? How long before Wiggins' superior offensive chops overtake Butler's?

That's a pretty good summary, Q. The injury risk for Butler has been brought up by others here and is legitimate. Does anyone know the specifics of his injury history? I think last year was a knee, which might have a tendency to be recurring. Wig on the other hand has been remarkably resilient.

Somewhat offsetting the injury factor is Butler's favorable contract...5 years for $90 million. That sounds pretty good right now, and is going to sound really good in a couple years when Wig gets 5 years for $125 million plus.

[Coolbreeze44]

How Butler ranks in advanced (and some basic) stats in the last two seasons combined:

Stat - Overall League Ranking/Overall SG Ranking:
PER - #11, #2
WS/48 - #8, #2
TS% - #16, #4
Pts/Gm - #13, #4
RPM - #22, #4
VORP - #12, #2
BPM - #11, #2

Conclusion - He's a top 15 player and top 4 shooting guard....at least. The Bulls should ask for a lot in return.

In my opinion, that is where Wiggins will ultimately end up - somewhere among the top 3 or 4 at his position and top 15 in the NBA, but likely not a perennial MVP candidate. I think he'll be a more prolific and efficient scorer than Butler, but not fill up the box score in the same way (which is why Butler does so well on PER, BPM, and Win Shares).

It is interesting because a straight-up trade basically gives us a better version of Andrew Wiggins right now without sacrificing the 3-point shooting of LaVine. But how durable is Butler? How much longer will he be a top 3 or 4 SG? How long before Wiggins' superior offensive chops overtake Butler's?

It's hard to argue with anything you lay out here. I wish we could have them both. I DO think Butler is in the 10 -20 range in terms of overall value - probably closer to 20 than 10. But nonetheless, he is an outstanding player. My hope is that Wiggins becomes a top 10 guy, and I think he could spend some time in the top 5. He probably will never win an MVP, but I wouldn't be shocked if he did someday. The whole crux of the discussion comes down to three things: 1) The fact JB is already an all star, 2) Wiggins has an enormous ceiling, and 3) Drew is only 21 years old. How you interpret those 3 factors most likely frames your feelings on the overall discussion.

[Monster]

How Butler ranks in advanced (and some basic) stats in the last two seasons combined:

Stat - Overall League Ranking/Overall SG Ranking:
PER - #11, #2
WS/48 - #8, #2
TS% - #16, #4
Pts/Gm - #13, #4
RPM - #22, #4
VORP - #12, #2
BPM - #11, #2

Conclusion - He's a top 15 player and top 4 shooting guard....at least. The Bulls should ask for a lot in return.

In my opinion, that is where Wiggins will ultimately end up - somewhere among the top 3 or 4 at his position and top 15 in the NBA, but likely not a perennial MVP candidate. I think he'll be a more prolific and efficient scorer than Butler, but not fill up the box score in the same way (which is why Butler does so well on PER, BPM, and Win Shares).

It is interesting because a straight-up trade basically gives us a better version of Andrew Wiggins right now without sacrificing the 3-point shooting of LaVine. But how durable is Butler? How much longer will he be a top 3 or 4 SG? How long before Wiggins' superior offensive chops overtake Butler's?

That's a pretty good summary, Q. The injury risk for Butler has been brought up by others here and is legitimate. Does anyone know the specifics of his injury history? I think last year was a knee, which might have a tendency to be recurring. Wig on the other hand has been remarkably resilient.

Somewhat offsetting the injury factor is Butler's favorable contract...5 years for $90 million. That sounds pretty good right now, and is going to sound really good in a couple years when Wig gets 5 years for $125 million plus.

You may want to rethink that stance LST. Butler's 5th year is a player option and he has 3 years till then. I believe Wiggins has 2 more years on his rookie deal till he can get paid. So really you are gonna get a cheaper deal for Butler for probably 1 year at the most while the next 2 years you would save a bunch of money having Wiggins. Also if Butler opts out he would likely be eligible for a higher bracket of contract than Wiggins first big payday. The reality is Wiggins if both guys stay healthy will be the cheaper player over the next bunch of years.

[MikkeMan]

I voted no as well. I believe that we would be better team next season with Butler instead of Wiggins but since I don't believe that we would be real contenders yet even with Butler that doesn't matter.

Since Butler is already 26 years old, I fear that he wouldn't have more than couple of all star level seasons left. So I think it is quite probable that if we will be real contenders earliest at 18-19 season, Wiggins would be already better at that time frame. And at least Wiggins would be on average better than Butler during our potential championship window.

Another reason why I'm against trade is that Wiggins has already developed good chemistry with Towns.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Can't shake this age thing I keep hearing about.
Look at it this way...

G. Dieng fans have talked often about how he can still improve and is learning and getting better. Yet, multiple guys are using Butler's age against him like there's no more ceiling and it's all downhill.

Both men are 26.

[MikkeMan]

Can't shake this age thing I keep hearing about.
Look at it this way...

G. Dieng fans have talked often about how he can still improve and is learning and getting better. Yet, multiple guys are using Butler's age against him like there's no more ceiling and it's all downhill.

Both men are 26.

Big men last typically much longer than wings whom are strongly relying their athleticism. Dieng has also played much less total minutes than since he has been only three years in league compared to five + playoffs from four years. (5231 min vs 11281 min)

I checked some two way wings with pretty similar profile (Richard Jefferson, Finley, Caron Butler, Josh Howard, Gerald Wallace and Iguadala) and it seems that all those had their best years in terms of production between age of 25 and 28. After that their production started decreasing. Their effectiveness in later years of their career has depended mainly about how good outside shooters they have become and whether they have been able to stay healthy.