Draft prospects - Who do we want?

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Mayo Freshman Year at USC:
37 MPG
20.7 PPG
4.5 RPG
3.3 APG
1.5 SPG
3.5 TOs
56 TS%

Russell:
33 MPG
19.8 PPG
5.1 RPG
5.4 APG
1.8 SPG
3.0 TOs
62 TS%

Like Hicks said, on a statistical level, Russell is better at everything than Mayo at an equivalent age. He generally produces more in less minutes and with higher efficiency. I don't know how they compare defensively.

Size-wise, Russell is slightly taller than Mayo and has a longer wingspan, but Mayo had more bulk.

The last guy I can remember putting up all-around numbers like Russell is Evan Turner. Of course, Evan wasn't doing this as a freshman, but did start to put some impressive PPG-RPG-APG-SPG numbers his sophomore and junior years. Obviously he fell flat in the NBA because he could never develop a consistent outside shot and he wasn't explosive enough to be a high-level slasher (like D-Wade or LeBron). If Russell is just an "average" athlete as some folks say, than teams will really need to count on his outside shooting translating to the next level.

[thedoper]

Mayo Freshman Year at USC:
37 MPG
20.7 PPG
4.5 RPG
3.3 APG
1.5 SPG
3.5 TOs
56 TS%

Russell:
33 MPG
19.8 PPG
5.1 RPG
5.4 APG
1.8 SPG
3.0 TOs
62 TS%

Like Hicks said, on a statistical level, Russell is better at everything than Mayo at an equivalent age. He generally produces more in less minutes and with higher efficiency. I don't know how they compare defensively.

Size-wise, Russell is slightly taller than Mayo and has a longer wingspan, but Mayo had more bulk.

The last guy I can remember putting up all-around numbers like Russell is Evan Turner. Of course, Evan wasn't doing this as a freshman, but did start to put some impressive PPG-RPG-APG-SPG numbers his sophomore and junior years. Obviously he fell flat in the NBA because he could never develop a consistent outside shot and he wasn't explosive enough to be a high-level slasher (like D-Wade or LeBron). If Russell is just an "average" athlete as some folks say, than teams will really need to count on his outside shooting translating to the next level.

I always lean towards performance and competition when players are assessed as an average athlete. Russell just looks so fluid on the court and his movements seem to come so easy that it almost seems like he might not be digging in. He just seems to be one of those players that floats above the rest of the talent around him. Baring injury I think he is a sure thing. To me, the only downside in his game is that he tries to do too much. But I believe that can be turned into an asset. I still opt for a big in this draft but he would be my number 1 if we go to a different position. The only way I think this may happen is if we don't get the #1 and Flip really dislikes Towns or WCS. Drafting Russell would make for some exciting practices though. Him, Lavine, Wiggins and Ricky all going at it would be fun to watch. Any way you look at it, having one more lottery pick really opens options up for us either by trade or who we draft.

[thedoper]

Can Johnson shoot? Don't we constantly talk about how we have no 3 pt threats on this team? I like Johnson as well but for our team I just don't see how at this point we develop another wing on the bench unless his talent is so overwhelming that he is going to be a superstar. From what I see, I don't think he is better than Bazz or Wiggins. I think this year to draft wing depth may be a wasted pick. He is a winner all the way though. So I would not pout if we ended up with him. As I said in my last post, so many options. Drafting Johnson would likely signal a trade to me, but we are well positioned for some big moves or some more young talent to add to the pile.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Doper, the book on Johnson in high school was that he was a great scorer, rebounder and defender, but an inconsistent shooter. His shot was flat, kind of like Rubio's, and he did most of his scoring inside. But he has surprised everyone with his shooting at Arizona...over 49% overall and over 41% on threes. His shot doesn't seem as flat to me, so perhaps he has done a lot of work on it. High school kids that are big and athletic like him often don't need an outside shot to be effective, so they don't work on it. But smart players like Johnson know that it's different in college, and if they're committed to improving, they work on improving that aspect of their game. It appears that shooting is no longer a weakness for Stanley.

[thedoper]

Doper, the book on Johnson in high school was that he was a great scorer, rebounder and defender, but an inconsistent shooter. His shot was flat, kind of like Rubio's, and he did most of his scoring inside. But he has surprised everyone with his shooting at Arizona...over 49% overall and over 41% on threes. His shot doesn't seem as flat to me, so perhaps he has done a lot of work on it. High school kids that are big and athletic like him often don't need an outside shot to be effective, so they don't work on it. But smart players like Johnson know that it's different in college, and if they're committed to improving, they work on improving that aspect of their game. It appears that shooting is no longer a weakness for Stanley.

Thanks for that. I was just curious as his bad form on his shot kept coming up in scouting reports.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

I think the idea behind getting Johnson would be to roll with a Ricky, Wiggins, Johnson 1-3 to attempt to lockdown the perimeter defensively. I think it is a decent idea, but even top shelf perimeter defenders need rim protection behind them to hit an elite level as a team defense. You just can't keep everything in front of you defensively at all times. Also, getting an elite rim protector allows all perimeter defenders on the team stay home more often on shooters because they don't have to help on the weak side as much. I would still rank it Okafor-Towns-Mudiay-Johnson-Russell. I think Mudiay could be a valuable trade asset to land a big we would still be without if we don't get Towns or Okafor. Worst comes to worse Mudiay fills our hole at backup PG and has time to develop as a backup against better competition as he will not have played against even decent competition in about a year.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Mayo Freshman Year at USC:
37 MPG
20.7 PPG
4.5 RPG
3.3 APG
1.5 SPG
3.5 TOs
56 TS%

Russell:
33 MPG
19.8 PPG
5.1 RPG
5.4 APG
1.8 SPG
3.0 TOs
62 TS%

Like Hicks said, on a statistical level, Russell is better at everything than Mayo at an equivalent age. He generally produces more in less minutes and with higher efficiency. I don't know how they compare defensively.

Size-wise, Russell is slightly taller than Mayo and has a longer wingspan, but Mayo had more bulk.

The last guy I can remember putting up all-around numbers like Russell is Evan Turner. Of course, Evan wasn't doing this as a freshman, but did start to put some impressive PPG-RPG-APG-SPG numbers his sophomore and junior years. Obviously he fell flat in the NBA because he could never develop a consistent outside shot and he wasn't explosive enough to be a high-level slasher (like D-Wade or LeBron). If Russell is just an "average" athlete as some folks say, than teams will really need to count on his outside shooting translating to the next level.

I always lean towards performance and competition when players are assessed as an average athlete. Russell just looks so fluid on the court and his movements seem to come so easy that it almost seems like he might not be digging in. He just seems to be one of those players that floats above the rest of the talent around him. Baring injury I think he is a sure thing. To me, the only downside in his game is that he tries to do too much. But I believe that can be turned into an asset. I still opt for a big in this draft but he would be my number 1 if we go to a different position. The only way I think this may happen is if we don't get the #1 and Flip really dislikes Towns or WCS. Drafting Russell would make for some exciting practices though. Him, Lavine, Wiggins and Ricky all going at it would be fun to watch. Any way you look at it, having one more lottery pick really opens options up for us either by trade or who we draft.

It just seems like the great shooting guards of the past 10-15 years were all either bigger or way more athletic than Russell: Wade, Ginobilli, Thompson, Harden, Kobe.

Size and athleticism wise, he might be more in the Beal, Redick, and Courtney Lee category. Those are some decent players starting on good teams, but none are upper echelon elite.

Now at PG, it's a different story: Steve Nash, Deron Williams, Goran Dragic, and Steph Curry are a number of guys that have had great years as shooters/scorers/playmakers from the PG position without possessing elite athleticism. I ultimately wonder if that's his best spot, while also being able to play off the ball too.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I want players/men that want to win, and will do everything they can to be the best they can be. They want to improve the play of their teammates by how they play. They make hustle plays. They play on both ends of the floor. That's championship mentality to me.

I'm tired of watching Timberwolves that don't have that. Wes Johnson, Anthony Randolph, Derrick Williams, Anthony Bennett, etc.

Stanley has that, and it doesn't hurt that he's 6'7, 245 with good athleticism and underrated skills offensively. I also think he has a great foundation (family) to build off and keep him focused. No red flags there.

I've been making a concerned effort to watch Arizona games just for him, and I've liked everything that I've seen. One game I watched he went scoreless in the first half; didn't do too much statistically. So, what happened? He exploded in the second half scoring 18 and grabbing 8-9 boards while making key plays down the stretch. That brings me to another point; he seems to have a clutch gene. Big free throws, big defensive possessions, must score possessions. He shows up. That goes back to his HS days too.

I know Flip believes in Muhammad a ton, as do I, but I would love to see Stanley here. Wiggins/Johnson starting with Martin/Muhammad (or LaVine/Muhammad) off the bench would be more then fine with me.

I get that we need more shot altering bigs, but how many teams would have that kind of wing lockdown defense? It'd remind me of the Bulls a couple years ago when they had young Butler and Deng, except our duo would be more athletic and 18/19 years old.

I have concerns with both Okafor, Towns, Mudiay and Russell. I have no doubt in my mind that Johnson is going to be good, but how good are we talking?

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Doper, the book on Johnson in high school was that he was a great scorer, rebounder and defender, but an inconsistent shooter. His shot was flat, kind of like Rubio's, and he did most of his scoring inside. But he has surprised everyone with his shooting at Arizona...over 49% overall and over 41% on threes. His shot doesn't seem as flat to me, so perhaps he has done a lot of work on it. High school kids that are big and athletic like him often don't need an outside shot to be effective, so they don't work on it. But smart players like Johnson know that it's different in college, and if they're committed to improving, they work on improving that aspect of their game. It appears that shooting is no longer a weakness for Stanley.

Thanks for that. I was just curious as his bad form on his shot kept coming up in scouting reports.

I don't trust it though. College 3-point shooting is tough to predict into the NBA without a much larger sample. Johnson has only taken 50 3-pointers this year.

If we get Stanley Johnson, we need to get him first and foremost because we think he can defend and rebound from the SF position. Anything he does offensively would be secondary. In other words, I still trust the scouting reports on his shooting over the results.

[Coolbreeze44]

Very few collegiate statistics are relevant when comparing guys from different conferences or different eras. I'm not saying all, but very few. If you want to use stats to bolster your argument, wait until the tourney or when these guys face off head to head.