Tank-O-Meter...2015 edition

[Coolbreeze44]

You have to realize how unique it is to be able to play both facing the basket, and with your back to it. All this at 20 years of age! Clyde never became a back to the basket guy. He was a great hall of famer, but there were things he couldn't do that Andrew already can.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Is Clyde Drexler, Andrew Wiggins' ceiling? I've been thinking about that as the season's gone along because it bugs me that there's not a perfect comparison.

Where I always get stuck on Wiggins is the non-scoring stuff - rebounds and making plays for others in particular. Rebounding generally translates from college to the NBA right away. He's not very good compared to all-time great wings. Making plays for others takes longer to come to fruition with elite wings and I think he has pretty solid passing instincts. But still, I have a hard time seeing him get up to 5+ assists per game.

That's why I just don't see the ceiling of guys like LeBron, Jordan, Wade, Kobe, and even Drexler. These guys were do-it-all types that could run the offense from the wing, grab rebounds, and score in bunches.

I do think he can be a very, very good scorer and wing defender. He's young enough to prove me wrong, but it's just hard for me to envision Drexler or Drexler-plus (i.e. Jordan and LeBron).

While I don't see Wiggins handing out the 5 ast, I think that has more to do with his lack of shooters, and playing next to a PG like Rubio. Guys like Lebron, Jordan, Kobe, etc. did not play next to pass first PGs. They had guys that could knock down shots, giving them an outlet when they drove and kicked it out.

Rebounding is something that I think Wiggins will excel at. It is going to take some time for him to fill out, but I see that part of his game having the most upside. He has a long wingspan, incredible hops, and is a hard worker.

I see no reason not to expect Wiggins to post big numbers across the board (other than ast) as he matures physically. My one concern is how much his handle improves. That is the one limiting factor I see with his game, and will determine whether he is mentioned with guys like kobe, MJ, and Lebron.

I really hope Wiggins becomes a top 10 player in NBA history.




[note: i'd be tickled if he became as good as a top 50 player in nba history (drexler).]

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Is Clyde Drexler, Andrew Wiggins' ceiling? I've been thinking about that as the season's gone along because it bugs me that there's not a perfect comparison.

Where I always get stuck on Wiggins is the non-scoring stuff - rebounds and making plays for others in particular. Rebounding generally translates from college to the NBA right away. He's not very good compared to all-time great wings. Making plays for others takes longer to come to fruition with elite wings and I think he has pretty solid passing instincts. But still, I have a hard time seeing him get up to 5+ assists per game.

That's why I just don't see the ceiling of guys like LeBron, Jordan, Wade, Kobe, and even Drexler. These guys were do-it-all types that could run the offense from the wing, grab rebounds, and score in bunches.

I do think he can be a very, very good scorer and wing defender. He's young enough to prove me wrong, but it's just hard for me to envision Drexler or Drexler-plus (i.e. Jordan and LeBron).

While I don't see Wiggins handing out the 5 ast, I think that has more to do with his lack of shooters, and playing next to a PG like Rubio. Guys like Lebron, Jordan, Kobe, etc. did not play next to pass first PGs. They had guys that could knock down shots, giving them an outlet when they drove and kicked it out.

Rebounding is something that I think Wiggins will excel at. It is going to take some time for him to fill out, but I see that part of his game having the most upside. He has a long wingspan, incredible hops, and is a hard worker.

I see no reason not to expect Wiggins to post big numbers across the board (other than ast) as he matures physically. My one concern is how much his handle improves. That is the one limiting factor I see with his game, and will determine whether he is mentioned with guys like kobe, MJ, and Lebron.

On the rebounding, I hope you're right, but history tells us that most rookie wings don't improve much in the rebounding department. They kind of are what they are from the beginning. But I'll hold out hope for Wiggins.....

Outside shooting, getting to the line, defense, and assists are a different story. Those tend to follow more of a natural learning curve. I'm pretty confident he can get better at all four areas. His handles are a big area of improvement that will allow him more trips to the line and more opportunities to make plays for others.

[Coolbreeze44]

Speaking of handles, Clyde had an average handle at best. What Clyde was truly great at was slashing to the basket and finishing at a high percentage. Think of an ultra polished Zach Lavine in terms of his ability to get to the rim. He also had a very good mid range game which made him very tough to guard.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

"I loved Clyde the Glide, but Wigs is already a much better long-distance shooter than Drexler ever was."

This isn't true, certainly not by the numbers. Wiggins has the potential to be a good shooter, but so far he's average at best. He's going to earn his points at the rim, much like Clyde did.

I'm not sure why you think the numbers don't show Wigs is superior to Clyde in 3-point shooting. Wigs is almost 35% this year beyond the arc, and while Clyde improved later in his career and finished close to 32%, he was under 30% his first 7 seasons. I'm impressed that Wigs is close to 35% at age 19 playing in a Saunders system that doesn't provide as many open 3-point looks as other offensive systems. Wigs will probably play most of his career with another coach who will likely be more inclined to structure the offense around the 3-point shot (right, q?), and Wiggins should improve on his 35% as he develops.

I agree LST that Wiggins shows a lot of potential with his outside shot. But yeah, Flip's offense encourages the "long 2", which is a horribly inefficient shot and one of the reasons we are near the bottom of the league in eFG%. In fact, nearly 25% of Wiggins' shots come from between 16 feet and just beneath the 3-point line (i.e. the long 2). He's hitting only 32% of these. Only 12% of his shots come from beyond the arc, which he's hitting at a rate of 35%. It's enormously frustrating to watch this, since even if Wiggins was shooting only 30% from 3, it's still a more efficient shot than the long 2's he's taking.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Speaking of handles, Clyde had an average handle at best. What Clyde was truly great at was slashing to the basket and finishing at a high percentage. Think of an ultra polished Zach Lavine in terms of his ability to get to the rim. He also had a very good mid range game which made him very tough to guard.

I guess it depends what you mean by "handle."

For me, the ability to get to the rim and to pass without turning it over are important and much easier to do if a guy can handle the ball.

Drexler averaged 5.6 assists per game for his career. And, he wasn't overly careless doing it... with 2.7 TOs per game. By my definition, I thought he was much better than average.


[note: drexler did finish with the 6th most tos one season. he averaged 8.0 assists that season, early in his career.]

[AbeVigodaLive]

You have to realize how unique it is to be able to play both facing the basket, and with your back to it. All this at 20 years of age! Clyde never became a back to the basket guy. He was a great hall of famer, but there were things he couldn't do that Andrew already can.

That's fair. I just want to make certain we're all in agreement that there were things that the HOFer could do that Wiggins hasn't proven capable of (YET).

He has a long way to go. And there's not guarantees that he's getting there. At this point, I'm looking for incremental improvements. We've already seen that this season, so there's reason to be optimistic with this kid.

[Coolbreeze44]

Speaking of handles, Clyde had an average handle at best. What Clyde was truly great at was slashing to the basket and finishing at a high percentage. Think of an ultra polished Zach Lavine in terms of his ability to get to the rim. He also had a very good mid range game which made him very tough to guard.

I guess it depends what you mean by "handle."

For me, the ability to get to the rim and to pass without turning it over are important and much easier to do if a guy can handle the ball.

Drexler averaged 5.6 assists per game for his career. And, he wasn't overly careless doing it... with 2.7 TOs per game. By my definition, I thought he was much better than average.


[note: drexler did finish with the 6th most tos one season. he averaged 8.0 assists that season, early in his career.]

I don't disagree with your basic premise, and I can understand what you are saying about your definition of "handles". But I was speaking specifically about his dribbling. Clyde really didn't have a left hand, and he had trouble keeping his head up when he was on the move. But he was just so athletic and a pretty good passer as you indicated.

[MikkeMan]

On the rebounding, I hope you're right, but history tells us that most rookie wings don't improve much in the rebounding department. They kind of are what they are from the beginning. But I'll hold out hope for Wiggins.....

Q, there exists at least two good counter examples about 19 year old wing players that were not much rebounders in their rookie seasons but were more than OK later on.

Those examples are LeBron and Durant. In their rookie seasons they averaged only 5.0 and 4.5 rebounds per 36 minutes and so far they have had averages of 7.6 and 7.5 rebounds per 36 minutes in their best rebounding seasons.

Wiggins rebounding average per 36 minutes is currently 4.4. If he can improve his rebounding in future similar way than Lebron and Durant improved, he can be considered also great rebounder for a wing player.

Of course there are some other examples about wings that had their best rebounding numbers as 19 year old. (Tracy McGrady comes my mind. He got 9 per 36 minutes in 2nd season but later in his prime he was averaging only between 5 and 6 per 36 minutes. I guess that next season we will be already much wiser about how Wiggins game will develop.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Yup, good examples Mikkeman. However, the exceptions far outweigh the norm. Here are some other 19-year old rookie numbers:

Luol Deng - 7.0 per 36 as a rookie, 6.3 for his career
Thad Young - 7.2, 6.5
Carmelo - 6.0, 6.5
Bradley Beal - 4.4, 4.1
Marvin Williams - 7.1, 6.3
Trevor Ariza - 6.3, 6.1
Martell Webster - 4.4, 4.7
Tracy McGrady - (you already cited those numbers)

In fact, like McGrady, a number of these guys did some of their best work on the boards as rookies and then tailed off over time.

For Wiggins, it's not just an issue of weight. His hands are a bit shaky, as I've seen the ball squirt out of his mitts on numerous occasions. I'm not sure that's fixable.

I think people need to hang their hat on Wiggins' potential as a wing scorer and defensive stopper. But I don't quite see the do-it-all wing of yesteryear. Luckily, he plays next to a point guard that is a do-it-all type player in terms of rebounding, assists, steals, and defense. The one area that Rubio is weak in - scoring - happens to be the area of greatest potential for Wiggins.