The Wolves Salary Cap Problem

[Lipoli390]

https://twitter.com/KyleTheige/status/1 ... 15168?s=20

Nothing new here. Kyle just underscores the reality that the Wolves organization and fans have to deal with. After next season, the Wolves can’t realistically carry KAT, Rudy, Ant and Jaden on the roster. Unless TC is delusional enough to believe this team can contend for a championship with Rudy and KAT, it makes no sense to keep both next season knowing that one will have to be moved next summer. When you’re trying to build a championship contender every season builds towards the next. This organization needs to assemble a roster next season that has personnel and a style that fit the long-term vision with Ant and Jaden.

As I’ve said before, KAT can fit that better than Rudy when factoring in age and skill set. On the other hand, KAT would bring back a much bigger return in a trade. We have two threads discussing both scenarios at great length so I won’t carry that discussion into this threat. However, it bears repeating that keeping both Rudy and KAT is not a good option for this organization if it’s serious about building towards becoming a championship contender with Ant and Jaden. A smart organization would move on from one or the other this summer.

[Monster]

These discussions are interesting, but they all hinge on how much Lore/Arod want to win, and their appetite for paying an onerous lux tax. We just don't know. Lore has a reported net worth of $4 billion, so paying a luxury tax for him not going to be too painful. Arod's net worth though is reported to be "only" 1/10 of that ($400 million), and who knows how much of that is liquid. I imagine they would have to enter into some sort of arrangement where Lore covered ARod's portion of the tax in exchange for more ownership, but who knows.

We do know this...10 teams were over the luxury tax threshold last season, and they all made the playoffs. It's pretty clear to me that owners need to be willing to pony up if they want to be competitive. There are exceptions, of course, but not many. Those of us who believe in this roster have to hope that Marc Lore is willing to dig into his net worth to do what is necessary...if not, expect one of our bigs to be gone this summer with less than corresponding value coming back.

The tax money isn’t the issue. The issue is the severe impact on transactional flexibility and the super expensive roster that isn’t designed to contend for a championship in today’s NBA with an aging supermax paint-centric center who doesn’t provide anything close to supermax value on the floor.

Lip that is your opinion on the roster but it’s not absolute fact.

The restrictions on rosters are real and I think that’s actually pretty awesome because it’s gonna make those teams that kinda didn’t give a F about the money too much will think twice. Still if I’m Connelly and ownership is willing to pay lux tax I’m gonna tell them even if we still with the expensive roster I’m smart enough to find talent without spending that tax level mid-level. Keep in mind if the Wolves trade Gobert or Towms to avoid the problem of going into the tax that you are proposing here they actually have to take back less salary or significant salary that expires in a year. That’s not a certainty in a trade or it may also mean giving up more value back in the deal to do so. I don’t think they wooed Connelly to the Wolves to be like hey we aren’t gonna go into the tax…he might as well stayed in Denver…although probably wouldn’t have made as much money.

I’m not trying to minimize what the Wolves have coming up but I think there are likely more pathways than do something basically in the next few weeks. Sometimes patience is smart. Maybe the Wolves end up trading someone in season. That worked out pretty well for the Nets with Durant and while it’s probably not a super awesome return I think the Nets are probably thrilled to have gotten what they did for Kyrie. Ultimately the Wolves need to be willing to make moves if an opportunity/market arises. Again that could mean trading someone else for value instead this offseason. Connelly has plenty of experience in doing this type of thing. He hasn’t batted 100% but he has made some good deals over the years.

[Lipoli390]

These discussions are interesting, but they all hinge on how much Lore/Arod want to win, and their appetite for paying an onerous lux tax. We just don't know. Lore has a reported net worth of $4 billion, so paying a luxury tax for him not going to be too painful. Arod's net worth though is reported to be "only" 1/10 of that ($400 million), and who knows how much of that is liquid. I imagine they would have to enter into some sort of arrangement where Lore covered ARod's portion of the tax in exchange for more ownership, but who knows.

We do know this...10 teams were over the luxury tax threshold last season, and they all made the playoffs. It's pretty clear to me that owners need to be willing to pony up if they want to be competitive. There are exceptions, of course, but not many. Those of us who believe in this roster have to hope that Marc Lore is willing to dig into his net worth to do what is necessary...if not, expect one of our bigs to be gone this summer with less than corresponding value coming back.

The tax money isn’t the issue. The issue is the severe impact on transactional flexibility and the super expensive roster that isn’t designed to contend for a championship in today’s NBA with an aging supermax paint-centric center who doesn’t provide anything close to supermax value on the floor.

Lip that is your opinion on the roster but it’s not absolute fact.

The restrictions on rosters are real and I think that’s actually pretty awesome because it’s gonna make those teams that kinda didn’t give a F about the money too much will think twice. Still if I’m Connelly and ownership is willing to pay lux tax I’m gonna tell them even if we still with the expensive roster I’m smart enough to find talent without spending that tax level mid-level. Keep in mind if the Wolves trade Gobert or Towms to avoid the problem of going into the tax that you are proposing here they actually have to take back less salary or significant salary that expires in a year. That’s not a certainty in a trade or it may also mean giving up more value back in the deal to do so. I don’t think they wooed Connelly to the Wolves to be like hey we aren’t gonna go into the tax…he might as well stayed in Denver…although probably wouldn’t have made as much money.

I’m not trying to minimize what the Wolves have coming up but I think there are likely more pathways than do something basically in the next few weeks. Sometimes patience is smart. Maybe the Wolves end up trading someone in season. That worked out pretty well for the Nets with Durant and while it’s probably not a super awesome return I think the Nets are probably thrilled to have gotten what they did for Kyrie. Ultimately the Wolves need to be willing to make moves if an opportunity/market arises. Again that could mean trading someone else for value instead this offseason. Connelly has plenty of experience in doing this type of thing. He hasn’t batted 100% but he has made some good deals over the years.

Of course it’s my opinion. When it comes to our roster, it’s a pretty solid opinion in that there’s no modern NBA precedent for championship contenders with two starting centers. It’s a space-and-pace League. KAT can fit that mold, but Gorbert is the antithesis of a space-and-pace player.

The luxury tax concerns are also grounded solidly in fact, although there’s certainly room for different opinions about what the Wolves should do. I’m fine with the Wolves paying the luxury tax to put a championship caliber team on the floor. But the new CBA imposes really severe transactional restrictions on teams that hit a certain level above the luxury tax threshold. If the Wolves keep KAT and Rudy along with Ant and Jaden beyond next season, it’s looking like the Wolves’ payroll will trigger those restrictions. That’s a problem, especially for a team like the Wolves that finished only a few games over .500 this season. So far there’s no evidence that this team is anywhere near the level it needs to be to justify going well above the luxury tax threshold.

You raise a good point about taking back salary in any KAT or Rudy deal. That definitely complicates the situation. That’s one reason why I think it would be better to trade Rudy rather than KAT. It would be foolish to trade KAT without getting comparably talented players in return and that would likely mean little cap relief. If the Wolves just trade KAT for picks and expiring contracts, the team will likely struggle. In contrast, the Wolves can trade Rudy for a pick or two and expiring or short-term contracts without hurting the team significantly. The Wolves did just fine - actually a lot better - the prior year with KAT and no Rudy even though Ant and Jaden weren’t nearly as good then as they were this past season.

I’m not going to complain if the Wolves keep both Rudy and KAT next season. A part of me would like to see how good this team can be with Rudy returning and KAT returning to health. I just question the long-term advisability of doing that. Ideally, I’d like to see this team reset back to where it was the season before the Rudy trade with KAT, Ant and Jaden as the team’s core. I’m envisioning the team that finished 10 games over .500 with an elite offense and decent defense in the 2021-22 season, but with Kyle Anderson, Mike Conley and significantly improved versions of Ant and Jaden. The Wolves can probably sign Beverley for the BAE. Heck, the Wolves could probably get Vando back. I’d rather not waste another season experimenting with something that most knowledgeable NBA observers did not expect to succeed.

Trading Rudy for expiring contracts and a couple future 1st-round picks would, in my view, get this franchise back on the developmental track it was on before last summer, avoid the transactional constraints that come with going too far over the luxury tax or being a repeat violator, and maybe replace two of the four future 1st-round picks we gave up.

Just to be clear, all these things are my opinion.

[Q-is-here]

Lip, I know you yearn for the halcyon days of 2021-22 with PatBev, Vando, etc. I think what we are learning is that we may have benefitted from some coaching magic and other teams that had key players injured for a good part of the year. It seems like this past season, the Western Conference especially had a lot more rosters at or close to full strength.

It's been instructional to see how former Wolves from that squad have fared:

Vando - I love Vando and started his bandwagon a few years ago. And yes, he's in the Western Conference Finals. But look at his minutes with each successive series. 19.8 per game, 14.5 per game, and now 13.5 per game. He's almost unplayable because he is so unreliable offensively. I bet if LA were to get to the Finals, Vando would likely be out of the rotation.

Beasley - Completely out of the rotation. Walker IV and Schroder are getting his minutes.

DLO - Helped LA get to the Conference Finals just being who he is, but now that the competition is really tough, he's getting exposed and played off the floor.

PatBev - Didn't even get into a playoff series and had the worst season statistically of his career.

No thanks on any of these guys coming back to Minnesota! That team from two seasons ago was mostly smoke and mirrors!

[Monster]

Lip, I know you yearn for the halcyon days of 2021-22 with PatBev, Vando, etc. I think what we are learning is that we may have benefitted from some coaching magic and other teams that had key players injured for a good part of the year. It seems like this past season, the Western Conference especially had a lot more rosters at or close to full strength.

It's been instructional to see how former Wolves from that squad have fared:

Vando - I love Vando and started his bandwagon a few years ago. And yes, he's in the Western Conference Finals. But look at his minutes with each successive series. 19.8 per game, 14.5 per game, and now 13.5 per game. He's almost unplayable because he is so unreliable offensively. I bet if LA were to get to the Finals, Vando would likely be out of the rotation.

Beasley - Completely out of the rotation. Walker IV and Schroder are getting his minutes.

DLO - Helped LA get to the Conference Finals just being who he is, but now that the competition is really tough, he's getting exposed and played off the floor.

PatBev - Didn't even get into a playoff series and had the worst season statistically of his career.

No thanks on any of these guys coming back to Minnesota! That team from two seasons ago was mostly smoke and mirrors!

Q when it comes to Beverly if we added him it would be as a bench guy not a starter. Lip mentioned giving him the BAE. That’s the most I would offer him as well and test whether he REALLY wants to come back. With that cost and expectation it might be a good signing. Something to consider Beverly who didn’t take many shots did shot a career best from 2 last year. He ended up shooting not terrible from 3 but that’s now 2 years in a row of him shooting under 35% after that being a strength of his game. I think the biggest question is whether the Wolves should sign a vet like that or use that roster spot on someone they hope can be someone around for more than another year or two. I tend to lean towards the later. The Wolves could probably use one more vet on the roster though.

I’ll also add to what you said that the Wolves winning 42 game this year playing without Towns for over 50 games is likely more impressive than their 46 wins the pervious year. With some sort of reasonable health the Wolves could have easily won what another 4-8 games? What about if they were healthy for the playoffs? If the Wolves simply run it back (without making any massive moves) they aren’t running back a 42 win team they are better than that. How much better? Idk but adding to the roster could make a big difference. Look at what the Nuggets did in the offseason. KCP and Bruce Brown were pretty big additions.

[Q-is-here]

Lip, I know you yearn for the halcyon days of 2021-22 with PatBev, Vando, etc. I think what we are learning is that we may have benefitted from some coaching magic and other teams that had key players injured for a good part of the year. It seems like this past season, the Western Conference especially had a lot more rosters at or close to full strength.

It's been instructional to see how former Wolves from that squad have fared:

Vando - I love Vando and started his bandwagon a few years ago. And yes, he's in the Western Conference Finals. But look at his minutes with each successive series. 19.8 per game, 14.5 per game, and now 13.5 per game. He's almost unplayable because he is so unreliable offensively. I bet if LA were to get to the Finals, Vando would likely be out of the rotation.

Beasley - Completely out of the rotation. Walker IV and Schroder are getting his minutes.

DLO - Helped LA get to the Conference Finals just being who he is, but now that the competition is really tough, he's getting exposed and played off the floor.

PatBev - Didn't even get into a playoff series and had the worst season statistically of his career.

No thanks on any of these guys coming back to Minnesota! That team from two seasons ago was mostly smoke and mirrors!

Q when it comes to Beverly if we added him it would be as a bench guy not a starter. Lip mentioned giving him the BAE. That’s the most I would offer him as well and test whether he REALLY wants to come back. With that cost and expectation it might be a good signing. Something to consider Beverly who didn’t take many shots did shot a career best from 2 last year. He ended up shooting not terrible from 3 but that’s now 2 years in a row of him shooting under 35% after that being a strength of his game. I think the biggest question is whether the Wolves should sign a vet like that or use that roster spot on someone they hope can be someone around for more than another year or two. I tend to lean towards the later. The Wolves could probably use one more vet on the roster though.

I’ll also add to what you said that the Wolves winning 42 game this year playing without Towns for over 50 games is likely more impressive than their 46 wins the pervious year. With some sort of reasonable health the Wolves could have easily won what another 4-8 games? What about if they were healthy for the playoffs? If the Wolves simply run it back (without making any massive moves) they aren’t running back a 42 win team they are better than that. How much better? Idk but adding to the roster could make a big difference. Look at what the Nuggets did in the offseason. KCP and Bruce Brown were pretty big additions.

We have our wise vet PG in Conley, so I don't see the need for someone like PBev. We need to cast the net far and wide to find someone to backup Conley. I don't think PatBev is the answer, as much as I really admired what he did for us two seasons ago.

As for Denver, the #1 thing they did this past season was....get healthy. And the #2 thing they did was add a couple of good 3&D guards in KCP and Brown, as you alluded to. You just can't have enough 3&D players on your roster. When opposing playoff teams start sending two guys at your star(s), you absolutely MUST have players that can cash in from 3. KCP and Brown are just delivering dagger after dagger to teams that double off of them.

[FNG]

Q, my compliments on your use of the phrase "halcyon days" to describe the magical 2021-2 season...well done!

I'm also with you with respect to PatBev. He's fun to watch (mostly because of his constant hustle and immaturity), but his "best" days are behind him, and he seems to wear out his welcome wherever he goes.

All that said, Lip raises a valid point with respect to our salary cap woes. I think the chances of trading Ant in the coming months are 0%, and Rudy less than 10%. But KAT may be another issue. As a fan, I want them to keep the band together...I like what they did in the final 9 games before Jaden got hurt. But keeping the band together hinges upon how much Lore values his bank account. I think we will find out a lot about his thoughts about the luxury tax this summer. If he keeps everyone (except perhaps Naz), he's signaling that our 6-3 record in the final 9 games wasn't fool's gold, and that he thinks this roster can win it all...and that he is willing to part with hundreds of millions to get that championship. But if his thoughts about this roster are more like Lip's, or if his thoughts about preserving his riches are more like Glen's, I think the chances of a KAT trade this summer are over 50%. I think we will know quite soon.

[Lipoli390]

Q, my compliments on your use of the phrase "halcyon days" to describe the magical 2021-2 season...well done!

I'm also with you with respect to PatBev. He's fun to watch (mostly because of his constant hustle and immaturity), but his "best" days are behind him, and he seems to wear out his welcome wherever he goes.

All that said, Lip raises a valid point with respect to our salary cap woes. I think the chances of trading Ant in the coming months are 0%, and Rudy less than 10%. But KAT may be another issue. As a fan, I want them to keep the band together...I like what they did in the final 9 games before Jaden got hurt. But keeping the band together hinges upon how much Lore values his bank account. I think we will find out a lot about his thoughts about the luxury tax this summer. If he keeps everyone (except perhaps Naz), he's signaling that our 6-3 record in the final 9 games wasn't fool's gold, and that he thinks this roster can win it all...and that he is willing to part with hundreds of millions to get that championship. But if his thoughts about this roster are more like Lip's, or if his thoughts about preserving his riches are more like Glen's, I think the chances of a KAT trade this summer are over 50%. I think we will know quite soon.

I think Lore is willing to spend as much as it takes. The key is whether TC wants to bring the band back next season to see if they can become a team worthy of all the restrictions that will come the next season when the team ends up well above the luxury tax threshold with Rudy, KAT, Ant, and Jaden remaining. Again, it’s the transactional restrictions that this organization should be worried about. I’m convinced it won’t work and that the best move is to move on from Rudy this summer so this franchise get move forward sooner rather than later building a team with long-term viability as a contender. But I don’t think it would be unreasonable to bring everyone back next season to see if TC’s Rudy fantasy can work. If TC is right and I’m wrong, then I’m convinced Lore will be all in financially and that the organization will be willing to accept the resulting severe transactional limitations beginning in the 2024-25 season under the new CBA.

I think it’s interesting that TC recently said everything the organization does going forward will be build around Anthony Edwards. My first reaction to seeing his comment was: Duh! Did TC just figure that out? More interestingly, his comment tells us that we should not be surprised if the Wolves trade Rudy or KAT this summer. In fact, the comment sort of foreshadows trading KAT for a high lottery pick. Of course, I could easily be reading too much into TC’s comment. On the other hand, TC wasn’t content last summer to run it back coming off a 46-win season. Why should be believe he’s content to run it back with this group after a 43 win season?

[FNG]

Q, my compliments on your use of the phrase "halcyon days" to describe the magical 2021-2 season...well done!

I'm also with you with respect to PatBev. He's fun to watch (mostly because of his constant hustle and immaturity), but his "best" days are behind him, and he seems to wear out his welcome wherever he goes.

All that said, Lip raises a valid point with respect to our salary cap woes. I think the chances of trading Ant in the coming months are 0%, and Rudy less than 10%. But KAT may be another issue. As a fan, I want them to keep the band together...I like what they did in the final 9 games before Jaden got hurt. But keeping the band together hinges upon how much Lore values his bank account. I think we will find out a lot about his thoughts about the luxury tax this summer. If he keeps everyone (except perhaps Naz), he's signaling that our 6-3 record in the final 9 games wasn't fool's gold, and that he thinks this roster can win it all...and that he is willing to part with hundreds of millions to get that championship. But if his thoughts about this roster are more like Lip's, or if his thoughts about preserving his riches are more like Glen's, I think the chances of a KAT trade this summer are over 50%. I think we will know quite soon.

I think Lore is willing to spend as much as it takes. The key is whether TC wants to bring the band back next season to see if they can become a team worthy of all the restrictions that will come the next season when the team ends up well above the luxury tax threshold with Rudy, KAT, Ant, and Jaden remaining. Again, it’s the transactional restrictions that this organization should be worried about. I’m convinced it won’t work and that the best move is to move on from Rudy this summer so this franchise get move forward sooner rather than later building a team with long-term viability as a contender. But I don’t think it would be unreasonable to bring everyone back next season to see if TC’s Rudy fantasy can work. If TC is right and I’m wrong, then I’m convinced Lore will be all in financially and that the organization will be willing to accept the resulting severe transactional limitations beginning in the 2024-25 season under the new CBA.

I think it’s interesting that TC recently said everything the organization does going forward will be build around Anthony Edwards. My first reaction to seeing his comment was: Duh! Did TC just figure that out? More interestingly, his comment tells us that we should not be surprised if the Wolves trade Rudy or KAT this summer. In fact, the comment sort of foreshadows trading KAT for a high lottery pick. Of course, I could easily be reading too much into TC’s comment. On the other hand, TC wasn’t content last summer to run it back coming off a 46-win season. Why should be believe he’s content to run it back with this group after a 43 win season?

It's a fair question, Lip, but perhaps TC evaluates the rosters at the end of the two seasons the way I do, and is much more confident about this year's iteration. Yes, last year's team won 46 games, but as some here have pointed out, it was as hollow a 46-win season as I have ever seen. I don't believe we had 5 wins all season against healthy teams with a winning record! And the team kind of stumbled to the finish line...finishing 4-5, including an embarrassing 18-point loss at home to a bad Wizards team. In contrast, this year's 43-win total was severely hampered by KAT missing most of the season, and once we had our best rotation players available, we finished the season strong with a 6-3 record against mostly playoff teams. I thought the 2021-2 roster had a very low ceiling in contrast to the high ceiling I see with this year's roster, and I think TC might see things the same way. I'm guessing that, unlike last year, he believes in this roster and wants to see what they can do next season, and only salary cap reticence by Lore will force him to move KAT or Rudy.

[Monster]

Lip, I know you yearn for the halcyon days of 2021-22 with PatBev, Vando, etc. I think what we are learning is that we may have benefitted from some coaching magic and other teams that had key players injured for a good part of the year. It seems like this past season, the Western Conference especially had a lot more rosters at or close to full strength.

It's been instructional to see how former Wolves from that squad have fared:

Vando - I love Vando and started his bandwagon a few years ago. And yes, he's in the Western Conference Finals. But look at his minutes with each successive series. 19.8 per game, 14.5 per game, and now 13.5 per game. He's almost unplayable because he is so unreliable offensively. I bet if LA were to get to the Finals, Vando would likely be out of the rotation.

Beasley - Completely out of the rotation. Walker IV and Schroder are getting his minutes.

DLO - Helped LA get to the Conference Finals just being who he is, but now that the competition is really tough, he's getting exposed and played off the floor.

PatBev - Didn't even get into a playoff series and had the worst season statistically of his career.

No thanks on any of these guys coming back to Minnesota! That team from two seasons ago was mostly smoke and mirrors!

Q when it comes to Beverly if we added him it would be as a bench guy not a starter. Lip mentioned giving him the BAE. That’s the most I would offer him as well and test whether he REALLY wants to come back. With that cost and expectation it might be a good signing. Something to consider Beverly who didn’t take many shots did shot a career best from 2 last year. He ended up shooting not terrible from 3 but that’s now 2 years in a row of him shooting under 35% after that being a strength of his game. I think the biggest question is whether the Wolves should sign a vet like that or use that roster spot on someone they hope can be someone around for more than another year or two. I tend to lean towards the later. The Wolves could probably use one more vet on the roster though.

I’ll also add to what you said that the Wolves winning 42 game this year playing without Towns for over 50 games is likely more impressive than their 46 wins the pervious year. With some sort of reasonable health the Wolves could have easily won what another 4-8 games? What about if they were healthy for the playoffs? If the Wolves simply run it back (without making any massive moves) they aren’t running back a 42 win team they are better than that. How much better? Idk but adding to the roster could make a big difference. Look at what the Nuggets did in the offseason. KCP and Bruce Brown were pretty big additions.

We have our wise vet PG in Conley, so I don't see the need for someone like PBev. We need to cast the net far and wide to find someone to backup Conley. I don't think PatBev is the answer, as much as I really admired what he did for us two seasons ago.

As for Denver, the #1 thing they did this past season was....get healthy. And the #2 thing they did was add a couple of good 3&D guards in KCP and Brown, as you alluded to. You just can't have enough 3&D players on your roster. When opposing playoff teams start sending two guys at your star(s), you absolutely MUST have players that can cash in from 3. KCP and Brown are just delivering dagger after dagger to teams that double off of them.

Q I wouldn’t really call Bruce Brown a 3 and D guy really. Before this season his 3 point percentage was up and down and it was on pretty low volume. That volume ticked up this season hit still pretty low for a guy that’s a 3 and D guy he is shooting under 30% on 3’s in the playoffs and is 4-10 in series against the Lakers. I believe your point was actually much more about the value of players they added this offseason specifically 2-way guys. Brown is Denver’s backup PG and he can defend SFs at times. He is kinda thier version of Kyle Anderson in terms of impact and value. We need to hope to find a guy like that and NAW COULD be someone like that. It’s a bit of a high hope but not wildly out of the realm of possibility. Again the Wolves need to upgrade their roster in terms of depth. It’s pretty obvious to me that we don’t HAVE to have FA money or draft picks to trade to do so. This is part of why Connelly was brought here was to find talent outside of spending money and high draft picks.