FNG wrote: ↑Fri Jun 02, 2023 8:39 am
Yes, excellent framing of the dilemma by Q. I'm not opposed to Scenario 3 as long as it brings back a PF who can hit a 3 and rebound, while also improving our perimeter defense (Hello Brandon Miller). Absent that, I'm in option 1, but with a much sunnier outlook than Q's. I'm comparing the excitement the Wolves created in 3 of the 5 games against Denver (compared with the relative ease in which they are dispatching their other opponents), and I don't see the ceiling for this team being only making the West finals. Add Jaden and Naz back into the mix combined with expected improvement from Ant and Jaden and more comfort with Rudy (now that we have a true PG), and there's no reason this roster can't compete for a championship if healthy. Denver will still be great, but they are also a mature team without the upside we have with two developing young starters...they're going to be about the same next year. So yeah, if we can get Simons and Miller out of a deal with Portland, I might be on board. But my preference is for Lore to agree to bite the bullet on the onerous lux tax in two years (along with the restrictions on adding players) and going for championships.
FNG, What was also made clear on the Dane Moore podcast is that Lore simply doesn't have deep enough pockets to go into the second apron. He does not have Steve Balmer level wealth. Dane and his guests were pretty adamant that this likely wasn't going to happen no matter what.
So assuming you accept that reality, how do you feel about this team making the Western Conference Finals next year (let's assume they don't go further than that) and then having to turnaround and trade one of their max players - KAT, Ant, or Gobert?
I'll have to listen to that pod, Q. You're right that Lore doesn't have Steve Ballmer money. But reports I read have him at 4-5 billion. I don't know that Dane and his guests can comprehend that kind of money...I know I can't. $200 million (just throwing that out as a possible lux tax) is a lot of money, but it's only 4-5% of his net worth. So, is he willing to cough up 4-5% of his net worth to have a chance to win a championship? Maybe he's told Dane definitively "no", but I'm going to say we don't really know. He seems like a very competitive guy, and his net worth is enormous. Of course I haven't studied the new CBA, so correct me if my $200 million is way off.
But let's proceed with your hypothetical...that Lore is not going to go into the second apron. As a fan, I would look at it this way. If TC can pull together a deal to bring back Miller and Simon from Portland, I would certainly have to consider trading KAT. I think that roster could also compete for a championship. But absent a deal bringing back a PF who could somewhat replace KAT's shooting and rebounding (while also likely providing improvement on defense), I'm in favor of bringing back this year's roster and going for a championship...even though it likely means we have to give up either KAT or Rudy in a fire sale at the end of the season. I'm hungry for a team that can finally compete. And while I can appreciate Abe's pessimism based on the history of this franchise, I saw something I hadn't seen before in a Wolves team in that short 9-game stretch at the end of the season.
FNG wrote: ↑Fri Jun 02, 2023 8:39 am
Yes, excellent framing of the dilemma by Q. I'm not opposed to Scenario 3 as long as it brings back a PF who can hit a 3 and rebound, while also improving our perimeter defense (Hello Brandon Miller). Absent that, I'm in option 1, but with a much sunnier outlook than Q's. I'm comparing the excitement the Wolves created in 3 of the 5 games against Denver (compared with the relative ease in which they are dispatching their other opponents), and I don't see the ceiling for this team being only making the West finals. Add Jaden and Naz back into the mix combined with expected improvement from Ant and Jaden and more comfort with Rudy (now that we have a true PG), and there's no reason this roster can't compete for a championship if healthy. Denver will still be great, but they are also a mature team without the upside we have with two developing young starters...they're going to be about the same next year. So yeah, if we can get Simons and Miller out of a deal with Portland, I might be on board. But my preference is for Lore to agree to bite the bullet on the onerous lux tax in two years (along with the restrictions on adding players) and going for championships.
FNG, What was also made clear on the Dane Moore podcast is that Lore simply doesn't have deep enough pockets to go into the second apron. He does not have Steve Balmer level wealth. Dane and his guests were pretty adamant that this likely wasn't going to happen no matter what.
So assuming you accept that reality, how do you feel about this team making the Western Conference Finals next year (let's assume they don't go further than that) and then having to turnaround and trade one of their max players - KAT, Ant, or Gobert?
I'll have to listen to that pod, Q. You're right that Lore doesn't have Steve Ballmer money. But reports I read have him at 4-5 billion. I don't know that Dane and his guests can comprehend that kind of money...I know I can't. $200 million (just throwing that out as a possible lux tax) is a lot of money, but it's only 4-5% of his net worth. So, is he willing to cough up 4-5% of his net worth to have a chance to win a championship? Maybe he's told Dane definitively "no", but I'm going to say we don't really know. He seems like a very competitive guy, and his net worth is enormous. Of course I haven't studied the new CBA, so correct me if my $200 million is way off.
But let's proceed with your hypothetical...that Lore is not going to go into the second apron. As a fan, I would look at it this way. If TC can pull together a deal to bring back Miller and Simon from Portland, I would certainly have to consider trading KAT. I think that roster could also compete for a championship. But absent a deal bringing back a PF who could somewhat replace KAT's shooting and rebounding (while also likely providing improvement on defense), I'm in favor of bringing back this year's roster and going for a championship...even though it likely means we have to give up either KAT or Rudy in a fire sale at the end of the season. I'm hungry for a team that can finally compete. And while I can appreciate Abe's pessimism based on the history of this franchise, I saw something I hadn't seen before in a Wolves team in that short 9-game stretch at the end of the season.
I think this is a reasonable take. If the front office thinks the current squad can contend for a title or at least win one or two playoff series, then I can appreciate how that is still a healthy thing for the "Ant and Jaden timeline" because getting these guys reps deep in the playoffs is only going to help them in the long-term.
Bottom line for me....I'm just along for the ride here, as I can be sold on why it makes sense to make a move now OR wait. I tend to lean toward the make-a-move now crowd because I'm a little skeptical that having the majority of your talent/payroll along the front line is going to get you very far in the playoffs.
From what I can tell, Lore's willingness to spend luxury tax dollars is a secondary concern right now. The biggest issue is the Wolves eventually hitting the 2nd apron. The Wolves are looking at an Edwards, Towns, Gobert and McDaniels core and mostly minimum guys to avoid the 2nd apron. Lore will be making luxury tax payments with just that group. That just won't cut it. If they decide to retain guys like SloMo, NAW or Naz and figure in a starting caliber guard it becomes 2nd apron time and a severe restriction on assets moving forward. Imagine having a pick every other year and having them pushed to the end of the first round per the new rules. All the while probably not having a deep playoff team.
Phenom wrote: ↑Mon Jun 05, 2023 9:47 pm
From what I can tell, Lore's willingness to spend luxury tax dollars is a secondary concern right now. The biggest issue is the Wolves eventually hitting the 2nd apron. The Wolves are looking at an Edwards, Towns, Gobert and McDaniels core and mostly minimum guys to avoid the 2nd apron. Lore will be making luxury tax payments with just that group. That just won't cut it. If they decide to retain guys like SloMo, NAW or Naz and figure in a starting caliber guard it becomes 2nd apron time and a severe restriction on assets moving forward. Imagine having a pick every other year and having them pushed to the end of the first round per the new rules. All the while probably not having a deep playoff team.
You nailed it, Phenom. That’s been my point from the beginning. It’s never been about the dollars; it’s about the restrictions under the new CBA. Keeping KAT and Rudy while also extending Ant and Jaden will invariably push the Wolves over the second apron in 2024 if the Wolves also want to have a decent supporting case around those four. The situation is entirely untenable. Therefore, moving forward next season with KAT and Rudy makes no sense unless you believe the Wolves will likely make the NBA finals. But that’s not going to happen.
I don’t want the Wolves to trade KAT, but I’d prefer that move over just running it back next season in one last effort by TC and his front office cohorts to show they were right when the vast majority of NBA observers knew they were wrong. Just the other day Sam Mitchell reiterated that the KAT/Rudy pairing just won’t work. He went on to question whether shot-blockers even have much value in today’s NBA. I think Sam’s point was a good one. It’s a space and pace League. It’s about guarding in space and switching. It’s about getting up on shooters. It’s a game that rewards mobility and athleticism. Yes, rim protection has value. But Sam’s point was that the value is limited and not nearly what it once was. I agree. And that’s why Rudy should be dealt. There are teams that don’t have a good starting center. Rudy would be an upgrade for those teams. But for the Wolves he’s a bad fit because we already have an all-star center. Having Rudy next to KAT forces KAT to guard in space where he’s at his worst defensively.
53rd pick
two way rookie
two way rookie
Garza OR Knight (personally I wouldn't keep either)
Spagnolo?
Minott
Moore
McLaughlin
Conley
Prince
would be 10 of the 17 spots on the roster
Edwards
McDaniels
Towns
Gobert
Anderson
in essence, we have 2 roster spots left hoping one of them is Alexander-Walker (and if his price tag gets too expensive, uh oh.) In effect, we're looking to get one more guy.
I need to understand the second apron restrictions more, and how Lore might perceive them. I know there are more severe restrictions on free agent signings, and I also read in phenom's post that draft picks would be pushed back to the end of the first round. I get that those seem to be punishing ramifications. But if Lore believes Rudy/KAT/Jaden/Ant/Conley/SloMo/Prince is a core he can win with, even if the remaining roster pieces are minimum salary players, is he too concerned about these restrictions? If we are a championship team, our draft pick is already at the end of the first round, so there's not much penalty there. And if he really believes in this core, don't you think he believes he can fill out the roster with minimum salary players and still challenge for a championship? The Miami experience this season with guys making less than $ 2 million like Strus, Vincent and Highsmith making big contributions to a championship run might only strengthen this belief.
That's why I still think TC's marching orders are more dependent on two main factors: 1) Does Lore think he can win with this core of 7 plus filler, and 2) is he both willing and able (given ARod is likely not in a financial position to participate much in a luxury tax) to pay a very punitive lux tax. If the answer to both of these is yes, I think we will see mostly the same roster return next season. But I see that as far less than a certainty.
WildWolf2813 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:43 pm
53rd pick
two way rookie
two way rookie
Garza OR Knight (personally I wouldn't keep either)
Spagnolo?
Minott
Moore
McLaughlin
Conley
Prince
would be 10 of the 17 spots on the roster
Edwards
McDaniels
Towns
Gobert
Anderson
in essence, we have 2 roster spots left hoping one of them is Alexander-Walker (and if his price tag gets too expensive, uh oh.) In effect, we're looking to get one more guy.
I don't think Spagnolo is coming over and you forgot about Naz Reid, so I guess that's a wash.
FNG wrote: ↑Tue Jun 06, 2023 6:50 am
I need to understand the second apron restrictions more, and how Lore might perceive them. I know there are more severe restrictions on free agent signings, and I also read in phenom's post that draft picks would be pushed back to the end of the first round. I get that those seem to be punishing ramifications. But if Lore believes Rudy/KAT/Jaden/Ant/Conley/SloMo/Prince is a core he can win with, even if the remaining roster pieces are minimum salary players, is he too concerned about these restrictions? If we are a championship team, our draft pick is already at the end of the first round, so there's not much penalty there. And if he really believes in this core, don't you think he believes he can fill out the roster with minimum salary players and still challenge for a championship? The Miami experience this season with guys making less than $ 2 million like Strus, Vincent and Highsmith making big contributions to a championship run might only strengthen this belief.
That's why I still think TC's marching orders are more dependent on two main factors: 1) Does Lore think he can win with this core of 7 plus filler, and 2) is he both willing and able (given ARod is likely not in a financial position to participate much in a luxury tax) to pay a very punitive lux tax. If the answer to both of these is yes, I think we will see mostly the same roster return next season. But I see that as far less than a certainty.
Good analysis, FNG. My only caveat is that TC should NOT have any marching orders from Lore or any of the Wolves’ owners. He was hired because Lore and A-Rod apparently thought he was an elite basketball executive. You don’t open up the bank account and give an equity stake to lure guy you consider elite at his job and then give him marching orders on how to do his job - in this case what roster moves to make. It’s TC’s job (in consultation with his front office cohorts) to determine the roster based on all relevant factors, including the operational ramifications of exceeding the 2nd apron under the new CBA.
WildWolf2813 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:43 pm
53rd pick
two way rookie
two way rookie
Garza OR Knight (personally I wouldn't keep either)
Spagnolo?
Minott
Moore
McLaughlin
Conley
Prince
would be 10 of the 17 spots on the roster
Edwards
McDaniels
Towns
Gobert
Anderson
in essence, we have 2 roster spots left hoping one of them is Alexander-Walker (and if his price tag gets too expensive, uh oh.) In effect, we're looking to get one more guy.
I don't think Spagnolo is coming over and you forgot about Naz Reid, so I guess that's a wash.
FNG wrote: ↑Tue Jun 06, 2023 6:50 am
I need to understand the second apron restrictions more, and how Lore might perceive them. I know there are more severe restrictions on free agent signings, and I also read in phenom's post that draft picks would be pushed back to the end of the first round. I get that those seem to be punishing ramifications. But if Lore believes Rudy/KAT/Jaden/Ant/Conley/SloMo/Prince is a core he can win with, even if the remaining roster pieces are minimum salary players, is he too concerned about these restrictions? If we are a championship team, our draft pick is already at the end of the first round, so there's not much penalty there. And if he really believes in this core, don't you think he believes he can fill out the roster with minimum salary players and still challenge for a championship? The Miami experience this season with guys making less than $ 2 million like Strus, Vincent and Highsmith making big contributions to a championship run might only strengthen this belief.
That's why I still think TC's marching orders are more dependent on two main factors: 1) Does Lore think he can win with this core of 7 plus filler, and 2) is he both willing and able (given ARod is likely not in a financial position to participate much in a luxury tax) to pay a very punitive lux tax. If the answer to both of these is yes, I think we will see mostly the same roster return next season. But I see that as far less than a certainty.
Good analysis, FNG. My only caveat is that TC should NOT have any marching orders from Lore or any of the Wolves’ owners. He was hired because Lore and A-Rod apparently thought he was an elite basketball executive. You don’t open up the bank account and give an equity stake to lure guy you consider elite at his job and then give him marching orders on how to do his job - in this case what roster moves to make. It’s TC’s job (in consultation with his front office cohorts) to determine the roster based on all relevant factors, including the operational ramifications of exceeding the 2nd apron under the new CBA.
Lip, I agree that owners should not give marching orders to the GM about matters that are strictly basketball-related. But money matters are different I think. TC (or any GM) needs to know how high ownership is willing to go. But after that, ownership needs to step aside and let the GM do what he was hired to do. In this specific case, if Lore tells TC he will not approach the second apron under any circumstances, TC has to find a way to move one of our max players this summer.
