Damian Lillard Prediction Thread

[Phenom]

That’s right KG. It would be a really dumb move for the Wolves. When I posted that it’s “not going to happen” perhaps I was projecting my own negative view of the deal. I’d like to believe TC wouldn’t do anything that dumb, but the Gobert deal still lingers in my mind and makes me nervous.

TC is a long way from gaining my trust, but I have a sense that he’s regained his senses since his momentary brain malfunction around this time last year. I think he’s all in on the Rudy-KAT duo for one more season as he simultaneously builds for a sustainable winner long-term around Ant and Jaden as evidenced by TC drafting or signing Minott, Moore, Miller, Clark, Naz, NAW and now Troy Brown.

If the Wolves end up in the NBA finals next season, then I can see TC trying really hard to find a way to keep Rudy and KAT one more season even if it means exceeding the second apron. Otherwise, I think TC will have to bend to realist and move one or both of our two bigs next summer. That’s not my preference, but I’m not too bothered by giving it another year with our two bigs.

Would having Dame really make the Wolves worse? What is all the fuss about Dame then? It has been reported that Portland will not cater to Dame's Miami request. They want a good deal and they want to offload Nurk at the same time. This trade seems to check a lot of boxes for all involved, provided that the Wolves are ok with remaining expensive, which they will if they hit the best case scenario with Towns, as Lip mentions above. On the other hand, it could just be lip service from TC. He probably knows it ultimately won't work with Towns and will always be able to say he has to trade him for cap reasons. If they are serious about putting Ant and Jaden deep into the playoff crucible, Dame elevates the playoff floor for this team in a way Towns has yet to do.

First, not only would would the Dame/Nukic for KAT/Conley trade not avoid the second apron cliff we’re currently headed for after next season, it would actually make the situation substantially worse because Nurkic would be on the payroll after next season unlike Conley who’s contract expires after next season. It’s conceivable, although unlikely, that the Wolves could stay barely under the second apron with both KAT and Rudy. It’s entirely impossible do so with with Rudy, Dame and Nurkic.

And this is sort of the equalizer because while Conley's contract expires, it leaves a gaping hole at point guard. Their only option will be to resign him as that is the only way to pay out requisite starting point guard money, whether you think that is 15 million or 25 million, you can't pay that to anyone else, only Mike Conley, unless you replace him with an aggregation of players in a Towns or Gobert trade. Unless you get a bargain on Mike you are probably paying him Nurk money anyway.

[Lipoli390]

Would having Dame really make the Wolves worse? What is all the fuss about Dame then? It has been reported that Portland will not cater to Dame's Miami request. They want a good deal and they want to offload Nurk at the same time. This trade seems to check a lot of boxes for all involved, provided that the Wolves are ok with remaining expensive, which they will if they hit the best case scenario with Towns, as Lip mentions above. On the other hand, it could just be lip service from TC. He probably knows it ultimately won't work with Towns and will always be able to say he has to trade him for cap reasons. If they are serious about putting Ant and Jaden deep into the playoff crucible, Dame elevates the playoff floor for this team in a way Towns has yet to do.

First, not only would would the Dame/Nukic for KAT/Conley trade not avoid the second apron cliff we’re currently headed for after next season, it would actually make the situation substantially worse because Nurkic would be on the payroll after next season unlike Conley who’s contract expires after next season. It’s conceivable, although unlikely, that the Wolves could stay barely under the second apron with both KAT and Rudy. It’s entirely impossible do so with with Rudy, Dame and Nurkic.

And this is sort of the equalizer because while Conley's contract expires, it leaves a gaping hole at point guard. Their only option will be to resign him as that is the only way to pay out requisite starting point guard money, whether you think that is 15 million or 25 million, you can't pay that to anyone else, only Mike Conley, unless you replace him with an aggregation of players in a Towns or Gobert trade. Unless you get a bargain on Mike you are probably paying him Nurk money anyway.

Mike Conley will turn 37 before the 2024-25 season. I don’t think he’ll get Nurkic money. Moreover, they can stretch him out on a longer term deal at a substantially lower amount per year.

TC has made it clear, rightly so, that this is Ant’s team. So even through the Gobert trade was a win-now move, TC is apparently focused as he should be on having a long-term sustainable contender centered around And. After saying Ant and Jaden are “joined at the hip” he clearly sees is at Ant’s and Jaden’s team.

But you raise a good point about the PG position. The Wolves might need a PG for the long term to succeed Conley, but it’s hard to know when. And the Wolves might not need a particularly good PG to succeed Conley. Ant could eventually take on the role Jordan, Kobe and Dwayne Wade played on their respective championship teams, in which case we’ll simply need a role player like Paxon, Kerr, or Fischer as our “PG” after Conley. Fisher turns 33 in two weeks and hasn’t played more than 66 games in four seasons. The Wolves will need to move KAT or Rudy by next summer for a package that avoids the second apron and aligns well with a team built around Ant and Jaden. Moving KAT for Lillard wouldn’t be a sensible move for the Wolves.

[Phenom]

First, not only would would the Dame/Nukic for KAT/Conley trade not avoid the second apron cliff we’re currently headed for after next season, it would actually make the situation substantially worse because Nurkic would be on the payroll after next season unlike Conley who’s contract expires after next season. It’s conceivable, although unlikely, that the Wolves could stay barely under the second apron with both KAT and Rudy. It’s entirely impossible do so with with Rudy, Dame and Nurkic.

And this is sort of the equalizer because while Conley's contract expires, it leaves a gaping hole at point guard. Their only option will be to resign him as that is the only way to pay out requisite starting point guard money, whether you think that is 15 million or 25 million, you can't pay that to anyone else, only Mike Conley, unless you replace him with an aggregation of players in a Towns or Gobert trade. Unless you get a bargain on Mike you are probably paying him Nurk money anyway.

Mike Conley will turn 37 before the 2024-25 season. I don’t think he’ll get Nurkic money. Moreover, they can stretch him out on a longer term deal at a substantially lower amount per year.

TC has made it clear, rightly so, that this is Ant’s team. So even through the Gobert trade was a win-now move, TC is apparently focused as he should be on having a long-term sustainable contender centered around And. After saying Ant and Jaden are “joined at the hip” he clearly sees is at Ant’s and Jaden’s team.

But you raise a good point about the PG position. The Wolves might need a PG for the long term to succeed Conley, but it’s hard to know when. And the Wolves might not need a particularly good PG to succeed Conley. Ant could eventually take on the role Jordan, Kobe and Dwayne Wade played on their respective championship teams, in which case we’ll simply need a role player like Paxon, Kerr, or Fischer as our “PG” after Conley. Fisher turns 33 in two weeks and hasn’t played more than 66 games in four seasons. The Wolves will need to move KAT or Rudy by next summer for a package that avoids the second apron and aligns well with a team built around Ant and Jaden. Moving KAT for Lillard wouldn’t be a sensible move for the Wolves.

I think the over 38 rule will come into play with how long his contract can be but I'm not entirely sure what the limitations are. I dont think its out of the question he gets a 2/30 type deal.

[KG4Ever]

I hope we can enjoy this year without overly worrying about 2024. I'm confident we'll have a good point guard in 2024 to run the team whether its an organic choice or we bring someone in. I'm eager to see how Shake fits in as I think he'll have a chance to start some games and he was very capable of filling in when needed in Philly and I think given Conley's age we should give him plenty of rest days and if Shake plays well, Conley's minutes can be managed. Philly was 11-4 last year when Shake got 28 minutes or more. I'm hoping Shake's audition to be part of the long term rotation and perhaps even be an eventual starter goes well, but if not we aren't on the hook for anything more than 5M this year and the 2024 free agent point guard class includes Tyus and Monte Morris as well as Conley who may agree to take a cap friendly deal to stay on the team. We also have a draft pick to dangle during the 2024 draft to make roster maneuvers. I'm not sure when 2031 draft picks can be traded, but since 2030 picks have been traded this offseason, I'm thinking next summer and if so, we have another tradeable asset.

[Porckchop]

Without figuring out the necessary extra moving parts to make it work I think a Dame for Jaylen Brown trade would satisfy both teams current situations. Boston wants to win now ( and lost smart) and Portland is rebuilding and needs a center piece which I think Brown wants to be.

[Crazysauce]

I feel like we are overthinking this one. 32 is not old. Curry just got done at age 35 putting together another great year. Dames is a top 75 player all time and his game will age very similar to Currys. Kat is a flailing overrated player that clearly is delusional and I really question how much he contributes to winning basketball. I would much rather have my big 3 be Dame, Ant, and Jaden, then Kat Ant and Jaden.

Kat for Dame straight up works. We don't need to take a filler. Gobert and Dame will give us a good 4 year window and then we can find another sidekick after. That and Naz and Garza are well capable of picking up the slack for dealing Kat.

[Lipoli390]

I feel like we are overthinking this one. 32 is not old. Curry just got done at age 35 putting together another great year. Dames is a top 75 player all time and his game will age very similar to Currys. Kat is a flailing overrated player that clearly is delusional and I really question how much he contributes to winning basketball. I would much rather have my big 3 be Dame, Ant, and Jaden, then Kat Ant and Jaden.

Kat for Dame straight up works. We don't need to take a filler. Gobert and Dame will give us a good 4 year window and then we can find another sidekick after. That and Naz and Garza are well capable of picking up the slack for dealing Kat.

Lol. KAT is annoying and insecure. His insecurity leads him to make dumb comments of awkward bravado. But he’s still an all-star in his prime. He’s averaged 23.0 points, 11.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.3 blocks and nearly one steal per game. He has a career three-point percentage of 39.5%. He’s uniquely gifted and versatile offensively as a big. He hasn’t come through in the playoffs, but the only two times he’s had another all-star caliber player on the roster with him the Wolves have made the playoffs. In fact, two years ago, he didn’t have any all-star players on the roster with him since Ant wasn’t yet playing at an allstar level. Lillard’s game may or may not age as well as Curry’s. He’s certainly no Steph Curry. And in any event, every player is different and Curry’s had a hard time staying healthy the past 4 years. Curry will be 33 in two weeks and 34 when his salary combined with Rudy’s will likely push us over the 2nd apron. It just wouldn’t be a smart move for the Wolves and TC is smart enough not to consider doing it.

[kekgeek]

Chris Haynes has reported that the wolves have reached out about a Lillard trade

[AbeVigodaLive]

Dame Lillard last season:

32.2 ppg (career high)
7.3 ast
46.3% fg (career high)
37.1% 3fg


[Note: He's only played 87 games over the past two seasons. I don't know how many of those were for tanking purposes.]

[Lipoli390]

Dame Lillard last season:

32.2 ppg (career high)
7.3 ast
46.3% fg (career high)
37.1% 3fg


[Note: He's only played 87 games over the past two seasons. I don't know how many of those were for tanking purposes.]

It’s dangerous to judge a 33 year old player by his most recent season, especially if the player has 4 years left on his deal at a max salary that escalates to $63M when he’ll be 36. Players in their 30s often decline in steps, not a steady downward slope. Career average is a MUCH better guard of what to expect from a 33 year old.

I’m also trying to imagine how Lillard would fit with Ant. Lillard got his 32 point average last season taking over 20 shots per game - about the same as Steph Curry. Lillard has averaged 18.6 shots per game over his career. He’s a high volume scorer and a ball dominant PG. I just don’t see the fit with Ant. The fact that TC is even making the inquiry causes me to further question his judgment. If this team is all about Ant, which is essentially what TC said recently, then trading for Lillard doesn’t make sense. Neither his age nor his game fits well with Ant.