Playoffs predictor

[FNG]

Q, I understand that a top 4 finish is a worthy goal, but I think we really need to shoot for the #1 seed...or even catch Boston for #1 overall. I think home court advantage is something that just can't be overstated. To that end, I don't want Finchie resting key players if it means we might lose a game we could win.

I heard Sam Mitchell talking on the radio about load management a couple weeks ago. I get that Sam is old school, but I have heard players make similar statements. Sam said that it is in-season practices that wear players down far more than games. Going all out for 30 minutes in a game is not nearly as taxing as a 90 minute practice. Some analysts used to criticize Thibs for the minutes he played his guys, but I heard former players of his say it was the practices that left them drained. If we pick up a key player like a Morris, there will have to be some practice time to get him into the flow. But I really hope that Finchie is dialing back practice time at this stage of the season. I endorse the idea of Finchie yanking his starters if we are up by a lot early in the 4th quarter...why risk an injury in a blowout? But I'm not in favor of any kind of load management that might cost us playoff positioning.

[Q-is-here]

I guess I'm in favor of threading the needle between load management in its purest sense and play at all costs. For example, if Conley's hamstring is bothering him a little bit, but not enough to prevent him from going 85%-90%, I'd give him an injury designation of questionable and then sit him. Obviously he wouldn't sit if it were a playoff game.

It's almost like in investing where you tilt your portfolio in a certain direction (more bonds vs. stocks for example), but don't make any step wise changes. Think of this as a tilt to being more conservative with nagging soreness for some of our key guys. May be in January we'd play a key guy a little dinged up, but not in March.

[Coolbreeze44]

Good discussion here. I'm a bit old school on this topic as you might guess. I think if the medical staff says you can go, you should go. If they say you should sit, you sit. I'm against periodic or occasional rest just for the hek of it. What Popovich did with his aging team was obnoxious, and that kind of started this whole thing. I really like the attitude of our players, they don't want to miss games and it helps to create an esprit de corps.

[FNG]

A very bad start to the post all star stretch run, as the Wolves experience the only klunker. We are now tied with the Clippers and Thunder at 57 wins on my spreadsheet.

[FNG]

Too early to be scoreboard watching? I don't think so...especially in such a close 4-team race. A lot will happen before the end of the year, but here are the updated projected win totals with Denver anti-klunking last night and the Clippers klunking:

3-way tie with 57 wins: Wolves, Nuggets, Thunder
1 game back at 56: Clippers

[Q-is-here]

Too early to be scoreboard watching? I don't think so...especially in such a close 4-team race. A lot will happen before the end of the year, but here are the updated projected win totals with Denver anti-klunking last night and the Clippers klunking:

3-way tie with 57 wins: Wolves, Nuggets, Thunder
1 game back at 56: Clippers

We maintain a 6.5 game lead over the 5th seed, so every day that goes by makes it increasingly probable that we get home court advantage in Round 1. Obviously we'd ideally keep the #1 seed, but I will breathe a small sigh of relief once it's assured we at least have the first round at home.

As for the Clippers, they have slipped a bit of late. I'd love for Phoenix to somehow catch them and get into the top 4. That might be the team I fear the most honestly and I would prefer to eliminate any chance of seeing them in Round 1.

[Coolbreeze44]

I currently have us at 56 wins, but that requires we win out on this homestand. For every loss going forward, subtract 1.

[60WinTim]

The KOM has the Wolves ranging from 57 to 59 wins, depending on whether I classify the 76ers (who are struggling without Embiid), Warriors and/or Lakers as top tier teams. And we are always bunched in with the other top four seeds, all within a game or two.

I had wondered if the Kings might make a push to enter the top four seed conversation with their anti-klunker over the Clippers. But then they comeback with a klunker last night against the Butler-less Heat.

In addition to watching for klunkers, it's always interesting when a team has an opportunity for an anti-klunker. The Mavs and Pelicans both have that opportunity tonight.

[Q-is-here]

No anti-klunker for Dallas thanks to Max Strus! The Pelicans ran into major injury luck against the Knicks tonight.

[FNG]

The Wolves held serve last night (barely), while the clippers suffered a disastrous 4th quarter resulting in a klunker. So while the Wolves, OkC and Denver all still sit at 57 wins in my forecast, the clippers (who many of us pronounced the favorite recently) have fallen two games back to 55. They are also 4 games back of us in the standings.

Tonight we need cheer for Miami to klunk Denver.