Wolves at Pacers GDT

[60WinTim]

Just saw the replays. Wow. Edwards looked amazing - especially on that final block. I was worried he was going to try and do too much without KAT. But damn if he didn't deliver last night.

We are now 3-0 without KAT this year. Again...I'd rather have KAT than not have him. But this team has a lot of talent. I think we can be ok. We do need McDaniels to give more on offense along with other guys like SloMo.

As far as defense, I keep seeing people touting KAT's defense. But it's my opinion that if KAT's defense actually improved, it was probably 10% KAT and 90% Rudy effect. Rudy is our defense. I personally don't think we'll miss KAT much on the other end. But we do have 20 points to fill without him.

As you can see, the stats kek provided support those touting KAT’s defense. Yes, Rudy is a stellar defender. But KAT has become an excellent defender this season and the numbers back that up. Note that KAT didn’t improve his defense overnight. He had already improved significantly two seasons ago before Rudy arrived. So after being out most of last season, he has continued his defensive progression this season from two seasons ago. As others have pointed out, the defensive hit will come when Naz is on the floor as our center. And we don’t have anyone who comes close to doing what KAT has been doing at that position on both ends of the court. That’s the problem we face going forward. The good news is that we have a number of excellent defenders - Rudy, Jaden, Ant, NAW and Slo Mo. And Naz has been good defensively this season at the PF position. So I’m not ready to throw in the towel. But it will be a tall order to compensate for what we’re losing on both ends of the court without KAT.

A 2-point win over Indiana with Ant scoring 44 points was important, but it doesn’t illuminate a path forward. I’ll be looking for other things - Jaden upping his scoring from 11 points to 22 and Finch coming up with defensive schemes that mitigate the defensive hole that comes with playing Naz at center, maybe other things. Ant kept us on track last night and I’m sure we’ll need more games like that from him. But we’ll need something else we haven’t seen yet. With almost every challenge comes an opportunity. I think this is Jaden’s moment. But maybe it will be something else. We’ll see. I’m bummed about KAT’s injury, but I’m not throwing in the towel yet on the Wolves championship aspirations this season.

Don't forget about TJ Warren. I was pleasantly surprised with how well he played given he just joined the team and hasn't played competitive professional basketball in almost a year. If his foot ailments stay under control he could help make up some of that missing KAT offense.

[Carlos Danger]

Kekgeek probably has a better grasp of the hard numbers than me, but the main issue is when Rudy sits and KAT would slide to Center. That's where the problem is now. KAT is a much better defensive Center than Naz. Reid has a history of being absolutely demolished in the paint when he plays Center.

Naz > KAT as a defensive PF
KAT > Naz as a defensive C

I can certainly see and agree with that when you put it that way. Finch will have to be creative. Is there anyone out there floating around as a Free Agent that would help us? We already know he's not going to turn to any of Garza, Minott or Miller.

Yep that is what it is. Its not that Kat is some great defensive center (His numbers do suggest that this year) its that Naz is a terrible defensive center. (He has been good at PF). Numbers are below of our bigs (all in per 100 possessions)

Rudy Gobert
By himself: Net rating of -3.7 (34th percentile) and a defensive rating of 114.3 (66th percentile)
With Naz no Kat: Net Rating of 11.9 (96th percentile) and a defensive rating of 100.3 (99th percentile)
With Kat no Naz: Net Rating of 9.1 (91st percentile) and a defensive rating of 110.5 (90th percentile)

Kat
By Himself: Net rating of 7.2 (86th percentile) and a defensive rating of 103.5 (99th percentile)
With Rudy no Naz: Net rating of 9.1 (91st percentile) and defensive rating of 110.5 (90th percentile)
With Naz no Rudy: Net rating of 8.2 (89th percentile) and a defensive rating of 109.9 (91st percentile)

Naz
By Himself: Net rating of -9.2 (16th percentile) and a defensive rating of 116.1 (52nd percentile)
With Rudy no Kat: Net Rating of 11.9 (96th percentile) and a defensive rating of 100.3 (99th percentile)
With Kat no Rudy: Net rating of 8.2 (89th percentile) and a defensive rating of 109.9 (91st percentile)

So overall the wolves have been legit dominate on the defensive end when we play 2 of the 3 bigs on the floor together. I was shocked in the Rudy only lineups they were just above average and they were not dominating on the defensive end. Kat by himself defensive numbers have been amazing this year. There is a 12.6 pts per 100 possession this year defensively compared to when Kat plays center and Naz plays center. I think the wolves will be able to tread water and win games without Kat, I just don't think we can win a title without Kat because defensively we do take a big hit.

Thanks for posting. Can you provide your source for these stats? I might want to dive into it more myself at some point.

As far as interpretation of your data...isn't it saying that Naz/Rudy (99th percentile) is better than KAT/Rudy (90th percentile? Or am I reading that incorrectly?

[kekgeek]

I can certainly see and agree with that when you put it that way. Finch will have to be creative. Is there anyone out there floating around as a Free Agent that would help us? We already know he's not going to turn to any of Garza, Minott or Miller.

Yep that is what it is. Its not that Kat is some great defensive center (His numbers do suggest that this year) its that Naz is a terrible defensive center. (He has been good at PF). Numbers are below of our bigs (all in per 100 possessions)

Rudy Gobert
By himself: Net rating of -3.7 (34th percentile) and a defensive rating of 114.3 (66th percentile)
With Naz no Kat: Net Rating of 11.9 (96th percentile) and a defensive rating of 100.3 (99th percentile)
With Kat no Naz: Net Rating of 9.1 (91st percentile) and a defensive rating of 110.5 (90th percentile)

Kat
By Himself: Net rating of 7.2 (86th percentile) and a defensive rating of 103.5 (99th percentile)
With Rudy no Naz: Net rating of 9.1 (91st percentile) and defensive rating of 110.5 (90th percentile)
With Naz no Rudy: Net rating of 8.2 (89th percentile) and a defensive rating of 109.9 (91st percentile)

Naz
By Himself: Net rating of -9.2 (16th percentile) and a defensive rating of 116.1 (52nd percentile)
With Rudy no Kat: Net Rating of 11.9 (96th percentile) and a defensive rating of 100.3 (99th percentile)
With Kat no Rudy: Net rating of 8.2 (89th percentile) and a defensive rating of 109.9 (91st percentile)

So overall the wolves have been legit dominate on the defensive end when we play 2 of the 3 bigs on the floor together. I was shocked in the Rudy only lineups they were just above average and they were not dominating on the defensive end. Kat by himself defensive numbers have been amazing this year. There is a 12.6 pts per 100 possession this year defensively compared to when Kat plays center and Naz plays center. I think the wolves will be able to tread water and win games without Kat, I just don't think we can win a title without Kat because defensively we do take a big hit.

Thanks for posting. Can you provide your source for these stats? I might want to dive into it more myself at some point.

As far as interpretation of your data...isn't it saying that Naz/Rudy (99th percentile) is better than KAT/Rudy (90th percentile? Or am I reading that incorrectly?

Cleaningtheglass.com they have a paid version but lineup combinations are free. You are reading that correctly. Naz/Rudy combo has been better than Kat/Rudy combo but both have been elite. The drop off is when Naz is playing center by himself. I was also surprised how big of a drop off the wolves were defensively when Rudy wasn’t with another big.

[Carlos Danger]

Cleaningtheglass.com they have a paid version but lineup combinations are free. You are reading that correctly. Naz/Rudy combo has been better than Kat/Rudy combo but both have been elite. The drop off is when Naz is playing center by himself. I was also surprised how big of a drop off the wolves were defensively when Rudy wasn’t with another big.

OK - thanks for confirming. Regarding us being elite in both combinations of Kat/Rudy or Rudy/Naz, that makes perfect sense to me because of Rudy. And I think that's all I was originally trying to communicate...Rudy is so friggin' good, he covers many warts. I don't think anyone on here thinks Naz is a great defender. Yet (according to your data) if you pair him next to Rudy - they are elite. The same is being said for Kat. But I don't take that to mean that Kat has improved as a defender. I take that to mean Kat is benefiting from Rudy. Now, we can split the data up and spin it a few different directions i.e. do we go by net rating or defensive rating etc. My point is simply regardless of who we put there...even Coolbreeze next to Rudy and we'll have a good defensive rating. That's why (IMO) it's the 20 points/game that I'm more worried about with Kat going down.

[Coolbreeze44]

Cleaningtheglass.com they have a paid version but lineup combinations are free. You are reading that correctly. Naz/Rudy combo has been better than Kat/Rudy combo but both have been elite. The drop off is when Naz is playing center by himself. I was also surprised how big of a drop off the wolves were defensively when Rudy wasn’t with another big.

OK - thanks for confirming. Regarding us being elite in both combinations of Kat/Rudy or Rudy/Naz, that makes perfect sense to me because of Rudy. And I think that's all I was originally trying to communicate...Rudy is so friggin' good, he covers many warts. I don't think anyone on here thinks Naz is a great defender. Yet (according to your data) if you pair him next to Rudy - they are elite. The same is being said for Kat. But I don't take that to mean that Kat has improved as a defender. I take that to mean Kat is benefiting from Rudy. Now, we can split the data up and spin it a few different directions i.e. do we go by net rating or defensive rating etc. My point is simply regardless of who we put there...even Coolbreeze next to Rudy and we'll have a good defensive rating. That's why (IMO) it's the 20 points/game that I'm more worried about with Kat going down.

You put me next to Rudy, I'm not sure we need the other 3 guys to cross half court into the defensive end.

[TAFKASP]

Cleaningtheglass.com they have a paid version but lineup combinations are free. You are reading that correctly. Naz/Rudy combo has been better than Kat/Rudy combo but both have been elite. The drop off is when Naz is playing center by himself. I was also surprised how big of a drop off the wolves were defensively when Rudy wasn’t with another big.

OK - thanks for confirming. Regarding us being elite in both combinations of Kat/Rudy or Rudy/Naz, that makes perfect sense to me because of Rudy. And I think that's all I was originally trying to communicate...Rudy is so friggin' good, he covers many warts. I don't think anyone on here thinks Naz is a great defender. Yet (according to your data) if you pair him next to Rudy - they are elite. The same is being said for Kat. But I don't take that to mean that Kat has improved as a defender. I take that to mean Kat is benefiting from Rudy. Now, we can split the data up and spin it a few different directions i.e. do we go by net rating or defensive rating etc. My point is simply regardless of who we put there...even Coolbreeze next to Rudy and we'll have a good defensive rating. That's why (IMO) it's the 20 points/game that I'm more worried about with Kat going down.

You put me next to Rudy, I'm not sure we need the other 3 guys to cross half court into the defensive end.

Put me in with Rudy and I'd be crossing half court as they transitioned back the other way!

[Wolvesfan21]

Best block in Wolves history. Maybe top regular season block in NBA history as well. I've never seen anything like that.

It was amazing that Jaden was going up, but Ant comes flying in over him (Jaden was probably a tick late also). Just fucking nuts. I hope he is OK as well.

[Q-is-here]

Best block in Wolves history. Maybe top regular season block in NBA history as well. I've never seen anything like that.

It was amazing that Jaden was going up, but Ant comes flying in over him (Jaden was probably a tick late also). Just fucking nuts. I hope he is OK as well.

Executing a chase down block against a soft Aaron Nesmith layup isn't THAT difficult. What made it ridiculous was just how high he got to do it. But you could take 6 inches off that vertical and he'd still block it. I guess I would re-phrase it as one of the most athletic blocks I've ever seen. But he could have blocked it even without the adrenaline rush!

[Wolvesfan21]

Best block in Wolves history. Maybe top regular season block in NBA history as well. I've never seen anything like that.

It was amazing that Jaden was going up, but Ant comes flying in over him (Jaden was probably a tick late also). Just fucking nuts. I hope he is OK as well.

Executing a chase down block against a soft Aaron Nesmith layup isn't THAT difficult. What made it ridiculous was just how high he got to do it. But you could take 6 inches off that vertical and he'd still block it. I guess I would re-phrase it as one of the most athletic blocks I've ever seen. But he could have blocked it even without the adrenaline rush!

I would argue that he did have to jump that high because of where he came from. He was behind and to the side a bit of Jaden and flew over him. He wasn't in a good position to block it. It was also amazing because it was a game winning block. So to consider time and score and the fact I have never seen anything like it, it has to be in the running. Ant also said it was his best play so far in the NBA. He's had a few pretty nice dunks too, lol.