Julius Randle

[Lipoli390]

With two All NBA awards under his belt, that level of production you demonstrated, and the rising cap because of the TV deal, I doubt even Tim Connelly can get Randle to accept $25 mil a year. I even think it’s unlikely he exercises his player’s option for $31 next year. He’s 30 now, so his next contract is likely his last chance for a big number deal. But then again, you never know what’s most important to a vet until he negotiates a free agent deal.

If I was forced to put money down on all his options, I think he gets traded in the off-season to a destination he likes, and MIN gets back a decent 4th-5th starter on a cheaper contract, salary relief, and maybe a pick.

I wouldn’t want to keep Randle even if he agreed to $25 million per season. Again, it’s not that I don’t value Randle as a player; I just don’t like his fit here. In my view, he’s too ball dominant and paint-oriented to fit well with Ant, Naz, Jaden, DDV, TSJ and Dilly (key parts of Wolves 2.0). I think he’ll look around the League for something better than his $30 million one-year opt in. But I don’t think his value around the League matches his production so I question whether he’ll get the sort of multi-year he’ll be looking for.

I still believe the critical value from trading Randle is cap relief to get below the 2nd apron and possibly the 1st apron while still re-signing Naz and possibly keeping NAW. That means trading Randle for significantly less salary and picks. So I don’t see us getting an impact player in return for Randle. I think we get a limited role player or a young player with potential.

Randle getting hurt today could really effect what value/what they are going to do with him at the deadline

Yes. Apparently, it’s a groin strain. That’s not serious, but it’s the sort of injury that tends to linger. The Wolves should keep him out from now until 3:00 p.m. Eastern on the 6th.

[FNG]

I wouldn’t want to keep Randle even if he agreed to $25 million per season. Again, it’s not that I don’t value Randle as a player; I just don’t like his fit here. In my view, he’s too ball dominant and paint-oriented to fit well with Ant, Naz, Jaden, DDV, TSJ and Dilly (key parts of Wolves 2.0). I think he’ll look around the League for something better than his $30 million one-year opt in. But I don’t think his value around the League matches his production so I question whether he’ll get the sort of multi-year he’ll be looking for.

I still believe the critical value from trading Randle is cap relief to get below the 2nd apron and possibly the 1st apron while still re-signing Naz and possibly keeping NAW. That means trading Randle for significantly less salary and picks. So I don’t see us getting an impact player in return for Randle. I think we get a limited role player or a young player with potential.

Randle getting hurt today could really effect what value/what they are going to do with him at the deadline

Yes. Apparently, it’s a groin strain. That’s not serious, but it’s the sort of injury that tends to linger. The Wolves should keep him out from now until 3:00 p.m. Eastern on the 6th.

Yeah, groin injuries do tend to linger. I'm not sure if this is significant, but Jon K corrected Ju's situation from a groin strain to groin soreness. Archie Bunker would advise him to go see his "groinocologist".

We've all been assuming that Ju will for sure opt in for his $31 million, but I tend to agree with you and Shrink that he may be thinking he can get more on the open market. I guess we just don't know, but I think this can go in any one of three ways: Ju knows he can get more on the open market and decides to opt out, Ju opts in for one year, or Ju and TC agree on a multi-year deal. Shrink is likely correct that 3/75 wouldn't be enough, but maybe something closer to 3/90 would get it done. I could probably get comfortable with any of the 3 outcomes, but I like Randle's game and would prefer option 3.

And I guess I disagree with the accepted narrative here that Ju doesn't "fit" with this roster. I see Ju's ability to draw 2 defenders and then hit the open man beyond the arc as exactly what a team with several 40%+ 3-point shooters (Ant, DiVo, Mike, Naz, Rob...) needs. I note that our offense has really clicked and become a top 5 offense the past month now that the new roster is figuring things out. Further, I note that Ant is having the best offensive season of his career, so it doesn't appear that Randle is holding him back...looks more like he is helping him develop. This is a 3-point dominant league now, and Ant's is attempting 3 more per game this season compared to last at a very efficient percentage...I see 2 main factors contributing to open looks for Ant: Rudy's elite screening, and Ju's ability to drive and kick. Finally we should pay attention to what Donte says about how Randle's playmaking developed him into the elite 3-point shooter he became with the Knicks. I think Ju is a perfect fit with this elite 3-point shooting roster (currently tied for 2nd best 3-point percentage in the Association). What's more important though is do TC and Finchie think he is a good fit. I suspect they do, but we'll find out in a week.

[Lipoli390]

Randle getting hurt today could really effect what value/what they are going to do with him at the deadline

Yes. Apparently, it’s a groin strain. That’s not serious, but it’s the sort of injury that tends to linger. The Wolves should keep him out from now until 3:00 p.m. Eastern on the 6th.

Yeah, groin injuries do tend to linger. I'm not sure if this is significant, but Jon K corrected Ju's situation from a groin strain to groin soreness. Archie Bunker would advise him to go see his "groinocologist".

We've all been assuming that Ju will for sure opt in for his $31 million, but I tend to agree with you and Shrink that he may be thinking he can get more on the open market. I guess we just don't know, but I think this can go in any one of three ways: Ju knows he can get more on the open market and decides to opt out, Ju opts in for one year, or Ju and TC agree on a multi-year deal. Shrink is likely correct that 3/75 wouldn't be enough, but maybe something closer to 3/90 would get it done. I could probably get comfortable with any of the 3 outcomes, but I like Randle's game and would prefer option 3.

And I guess I disagree with the accepted narrative here that Ju doesn't "fit" with this roster. I see Ju's ability to draw 2 defenders and then hit the open man beyond the arc as exactly what a team with several 40%+ 3-point shooters (Ant, DiVo, Mike, Naz, Rob...) needs. I note that our offense has really clicked and become a top 5 offense the past month now that the new roster is figuring things out. Further, I note that Ant is having the best offensive season of his career, so it doesn't appear that Randle is holding him back...looks more like he is helping him develop. This is a 3-point dominant league now, and Ant's is attempting 3 more per game this season compared to last at a very efficient percentage...I see 2 main factors contributing to open looks for Ant: Rudy's elite screening, and Ju's ability to drive and kick. Finally we should pay attention to what Donte says about how Randle's playmaking developed him into the elite 3-point shooter he became with the Knicks. I think Ju is a perfect fit with this elite 3-point shooting roster (currently tied for 2nd best 3-point percentage in the Association). What's more important though is do TC and Finchie think he is a good fit. I suspect they do, but we'll find out in a week.

Extending Randle on a 3-year deal for $30 million per season would be unconscionable in my view. First of all, it would not be compatible with keeping Naz either financially or practically, We’d end up at least over the first apron keeping Naz without the chance to re-sign NAW, and more importantly, it’s likely Naz would leave for a team that would give him a starting role. Naz needs to be the Wolves starting PF next season or he’ll leave and it’s not tenable to keep Randle as a bench player at $30M per year. He wouldn’t accept that role anyway. So I really don’t see this extension option as a viable one, much less a sensible option.

As I see it, there are four viable possibilities I’d consider more or less acceptable: (1) Randle opts in and stays here for one more season largely in a backup PF role; (2) Randle opts in and then gets traded at some point before next year’s Feb. trade deadline; or (3) Randle gets traded by this February’s trade deadline; or (4) Randle chooses not to opt in and leaves for another team. The best of these options in my view would be trading Randle either before this year’s February trade deadline or preferably in the summer before next season. The worst of these possibilities in my view would be Randle simply opting out and going elsewhere with no compensation to the Wolves. If we’re left with Randle for one more year at his opt-in price that’s OK provided we can keep Naz and get below the second apron. We’d still be above the first apron, but that would likely be for only one more year with Randle’s contract expiring.

But extending Randle for 3 years at $30 million per? If that were to happen, I’m certain I’d start the first “fire Tim Connelly” thread on this message board.

[Lipoli390]

Yes. Apparently, it’s a groin strain. That’s not serious, but it’s the sort of injury that tends to linger. The Wolves should keep him out from now until 3:00 p.m. Eastern on the 6th.

Yeah, groin injuries do tend to linger. I'm not sure if this is significant, but Jon K corrected Ju's situation from a groin strain to groin soreness. Archie Bunker would advise him to go see his "groinocologist".

We've all been assuming that Ju will for sure opt in for his $31 million, but I tend to agree with you and Shrink that he may be thinking he can get more on the open market. I guess we just don't know, but I think this can go in any one of three ways: Ju knows he can get more on the open market and decides to opt out, Ju opts in for one year, or Ju and TC agree on a multi-year deal. Shrink is likely correct that 3/75 wouldn't be enough, but maybe something closer to 3/90 would get it done. I could probably get comfortable with any of the 3 outcomes, but I like Randle's game and would prefer option 3.

And I guess I disagree with the accepted narrative here that Ju doesn't "fit" with this roster. I see Ju's ability to draw 2 defenders and then hit the open man beyond the arc as exactly what a team with several 40%+ 3-point shooters (Ant, DiVo, Mike, Naz, Rob...) needs. I note that our offense has really clicked and become a top 5 offense the past month now that the new roster is figuring things out. Further, I note that Ant is having the best offensive season of his career, so it doesn't appear that Randle is holding him back...looks more like he is helping him develop. This is a 3-point dominant league now, and Ant's is attempting 3 more per game this season compared to last at a very efficient percentage...I see 2 main factors contributing to open looks for Ant: Rudy's elite screening, and Ju's ability to drive and kick. Finally we should pay attention to what Donte says about how Randle's playmaking developed him into the elite 3-point shooter he became with the Knicks. I think Ju is a perfect fit with this elite 3-point shooting roster (currently tied for 2nd best 3-point percentage in the Association). What's more important though is do TC and Finchie think he is a good fit. I suspect they do, but we'll find out in a week.

Extending Randle on a 3-year deal for $30 million per season would be unconscionable in my view. First of all, it would not be compatible with keeping Naz either financially or practically, We’d end up at least over the first apron keeping Naz without the chance to re-sign NAW, and more importantly, it’s likely Naz would leave for a team that would give him a starting role. Naz needs to be the Wolves starting PF next season or he’ll leave and it’s not tenable to keep Randle as a bench player at $30M per year. He wouldn’t accept that role anyway. So I really don’t see this extension option as a viable one, much less a sensible option.

As I see it, there are four viable possibilities I’d consider more or less acceptable: (1) Randle opts in and stays here for one more season largely in a backup PF role; (2) Randle opts in and then gets traded at some point before next year’s Feb. trade deadline; or (3) Randle gets traded by this February’s trade deadline; or (4) Randle chooses not to opt in and leaves for another team. The best of these options in my view would be trading Randle either before this year’s February trade deadline or preferably in the summer before next season. The worst of these possibilities in my view would be Randle simply opting out and going elsewhere with no compensation to the Wolves. If we’re left with Randle for one more year at his opt-in price that’s OK provided we can keep Naz and get below the second apron. We’d still be above the first apron, but that would likely be for only one more year with Randle’s contract expiring.

But extending Randle for 3 years at $30 million per? If that were to happen, I’m certain I’d start the first “fire Tim Connelly” thread on this message board.

The fact that the Wolves have improved offensively with Randle here doesn’t suggest he’s a good fit. More than anything, it reflects (1) Ant’s adjustment to his own game (e.g., 11 assists); (2) Jaden expanding his offensive game and being more aggressive scoring inside the 3-point arc; (3) Mike Conley re-capturing a bit of his youth; and (4) the emergence of Dilly. Note that our best scoring game (133 against Utah) was without much of anything from Randle who played only 10 minutes.

It’s true our three-point shooting can benefit from Randle drawing defenders inside, provided he kicks the ball out quickly and effectively. But we don’t want Ant’s primary role to be catch-and-shoot threes. We’ve also seen lately that Jaden’s strengths as an offensive player lie inside the 3-point arc. He’s more of a cutter and slasher without the ball, augmented by his improving dribble-drive game and terrific finishing ability at the rim. Naz can hit threes, but he also has a terrific dribble drive game. He’s a PF with SF quickness and ball skills that will make him a matchup nightmare as our starting PF entering the prime of his career. Randle’s presence detracts from those key strengths of these other players. Another issue with Randle is his ball dominance. He needs to ball too much for him to maximize his own offensive effectiveness. For this team to reach its potential, Ant has to be our ball dominant player focused on scoring with passing a secondary aspect of his game. He needs driving lanes and guys to kick to on the outside to maximize his positive impact on the team. As Dilly develops into our staring PG in the Ant era, we’ll also want him to handle the ball a lot.

A championship caliber Wolves team will have Ant and Dilly handling the ball and playing off one another with Jaden and Naz cutting to the basket off the ball and sometimes driving. It will be a dynamic, mobile, fast offense with great spacing along with Rudy setting picks and scoring on lob passes. Randle just doesn’t fit that optimal offensive style for a team with Ant, Dilly, Jaden and Naz. In fact, Randle fits well on very few teams, which is why there’s apparently so little interest around the League in trading for him in spite of his impressive offensive numbers. We already have Rudy in the lane, which makes Randle an even less optimal fit for us. But Rudy can fit because he doesn’t stall the ball, sets great picks and plays great defense.

[Wolvesfan21]

I think 25 per would be my max depending on how the season finishes. He's 30 years old already, so I could see a small or decent decline over the next few. He's been a bit injury prone these last few years and he's already not a great fit, though the team was top 5 I believe in January on offense. So things are getting better with him on the court, if he can stay on the court.

Then we will find out more when/if the Wolves make the playoffs. But his career playoff performances thus far have been terrible. The goal is to win a chip, so we need guys who elevate during the games that matter most. Ju hasn't been that guy to this point in his career.

I could see 25 per being a fair deal for the team, all depending on how things play out. A trade seems probably unlikely now, just with so many restrictions and limitations on players we can or would take back.

[Lipoli390]

I think 25 per would be my max depending on how the season finishes. He's 30 years old already, so I could see a small or decent decline over the next few. He's been a bit injury prone these last few years and he's already not a great fit, though the team was top 5 I believe in January on offense. So things are getting better with him on the court, if he can stay on the court.

Then we will find out more when/if the Wolves make the playoffs. But his career playoff performances thus far have been terrible. The goal is to win a chip, so we need guys who elevate during the games that matter most. Ju hasn't been that guy to this point in his career.

I could see 25 per being a fair deal for the team, all depending on how things play out. A trade seems probably unlikely now, just with so many restrictions and limitations on players we can or would take back.

I wouldn’t extend him for $25 million per year either. This team has to make a fundamental decision. Do they want to re-sign Naz? If they do, as they should, he’ll command at least $25 million and he’ll need to be our starting PF. He won’t stay here if he remains relegated to his 6th man role. If we make the decision to keep Naz, then Randle has to go. It’s unlikely he’d accept a backup role and even if he did we can’t pay him $25 million a year to be our backup PF for three years. And I haven’t even gotten to the issue of Randle’s fit or the fact that we can’t get below the first apron if we keep both Randle and Naz at $25 million per year each.

I think Randle is a terrific player and he seems like a good guy. But it doesn’t make sense to keep him here long term and that doesn’t seem like a close call to me.

[Monster]

I a couple things to remember is that I don't think many teams have enough space to give Randle 30 million so I think it's unlikely he opts out. This is one of the reasons Butler is forcing his way to a team that wants to pay him long term. If He ends up on the open marker as a FA who has the space to pay him even 40 million? Probaly no good teams he wants to go to.

If the worst case scenario is Randle opts out and the Wolves get nothing I'll take that. Even if the Wolves paid Naz and NAW wouldn't they have some ability to sign a FA for more than the vet min? If that's the case Randle leaving for nothing means they add a possibly worthwhile FA. That could be a pretty good move being able to keep NAW and a FA for losing Randle. I could live with that.

Randle is gonna REALLY want to stay here to take a 25 million contract unless he also worries he isn't gonna get a big next contract. I could see something like 27-28 million and going up from there but even though I like Randle I don't know if that makes sense. This is why I can see Connelly making a move to get some value this trade deadline for Randle (or NAW) if there is an opportunity to do so. Connelly seems perfectly willing to pull the trigger if the deal offers enough value for him to do it. What if the guy they bring in Finch likes too?

Anyway hopefully Randle stays healthy. Again the concern I have for Randle long term is his playoff performance. If he can't thrive there even 25 million is too much for him. We will find out what happens soon enough. I'm enjoying the run the Wolves have been on.

[shrink]

As I see it, there are four viable possibilities I’d consider more or less acceptable: (1) Randle opts in and stays here for one more season largely in a backup PF role; (2) Randle opts in and then gets traded at some point before next year’s Feb. trade deadline; or (3) Randle gets traded by this February’s trade deadline; or (4) Randle chooses not to opt in and leaves for another team. The best of these options in my view would be trading Randle either before this year’s February trade deadline or preferably in the summer before next season. The worst of these possibilities in my view would be Randle simply opting out and going elsewhere with no compensation to the Wolves.

I think the most likely possibility is (5) Randle opts out, signs a new deal with the wolves with his Bird rights and is immediately traded this summer. By working with the team, he can access more destinations and potential contracts than simply accepting a year on his $31 mil player option.

From the Wolves perspective, I would imagine that the Wolves would want a decent front court asset and some salary relief.

[shrink]

For the record, a $25 mil contract is only 16% of the 2025 salary cap, and if our payroll is just under the second apron, Randle’s contract would be 12% of our total payroll.

With two All NBA awards under his belt, Randle is going to think he is worth more than $25. He is eligible for a 30% max deal that starts at $46 mil, and while he may recognize he isn’t a max player, he’s not going to take a massive cut on his last big deal.

[Lipoli390]

For the record, a $25 mil contract is only 16% of the 2025 salary cap, and if our payroll is just under the second apron, Randle’s contract would be 12% of our total payroll.

With two All NBA awards under his belt, Randle is going to think he is worth more than $25. He is eligible for a 30% max deal that starts at $46 mil, and while he may recognize he isn’t a max player, he’s not going to take a massive cut on his last big deal.

I agree that Randle isn’t going to accept a massive pay cut on his last big deal. I also agree that your 5th option is a viable one that could work for the Wolves. I’m not sure I’d consider it the most likely scenario. I just don’t think there are a lot of teams interested in Randle long term. I could see interest from a few teams vying for playoff position who more offense this season and would want his scoring down the stretch. Detroit is one such team. They have their core young guys so they’re now looking to establish a winning mentality and really want to make the playoffs this season. After losing Ivy, I could see the Pistons wanting the additional offensive punch Randle would provide. Miami’s another team that appears to have interest in adding Randle this season and maybe even beyond. I could see the Clippers possibly having interesting Randle. But honestly, I have a hard time believing there are many teams that would want to add Randle even at $25 million per year. That’s why I think he’ll opt in to his $30 million deal and I have doubts about the Wolves ability to move him before next season after he opts in.