Lakers heavy betting favorites over Wolves

[Coolbreeze44]

The data doesn't back up that the Laker uniform causes more fouls to be drawn. You can't look at a guy like Reaves since he's only played for LAL. But let's look at some of the other guys that have come and gone recently, including some of their current players:

Career FTA by team per 100 possessions:
LeBron Cleveland/Miami = 11.0; LAL = 8.0

Rui Hachimura Washington = 4.1; LAL = 3.3

Jaxson Hayes Pelicans = 6.9; LAL = 4.4

Anthony Davis Pelicans = 10.0; LAL = 10.1

DLO Minnesota = 5.3; Brooklyn = 4.7, Golden State = 6.5; LAL = 4.2

Doncic's FTAs with the Lakers has gone up as compared to Dallas this season, but the sample size of games is pretty small so far whereas the others above involve multiple seasons of data. Dorian Finney-Smith on the other hand is having a career-low year in FTAs per 100 possessions with LAL, but again, it's a small sample size.

Bottom line is that I don't see wearing the Laker jersey inflating player's FTAs over large sample sizes. I do think individual skill, reputation and "street cred" with the refs carries over as individuals, so guys like LeBron, Doncic, and AD are going to average a bunch of FTAs no matter where they play.

And Reaves, as annoying as his foul-baiting is, will get those calls elsewhere, with SGA being a case in point of a successful foul baiter in a smaller market "flyover" country team.

Over the last five years, the Los Angeles Lakers have had the largest free throw attempt differential, attempting 3.5 more free throws per game than their opponents. The Los Angeles Lakers had a free throw attempt differential of 229 for the season.

But that doesn't mean it's the Laker jersey causing players to shoot more free throws, as I outlined above.

Lebron and AD were perennially among the top players in FTAs per season BEFORE they joined the Lakers. So if you take two of the top foul drawers in the game and put them on the same team, then it doesn't require a conspiracy theory to figure out why their team may have a significant free throw differential.

Your focus is on the individual, mine is on the aggregate. 229 more free throws than their opponent is astounding to me. And over the last 3 years it looks even worse. +5.8, +6.1, and +5.2 while dominating the statistic each year. In 2023-24, the Lakers had 500 more FTA than their opponents, the next closest was the Celtics with 230. I don't care who is on their team, that is ridiculous.

[Q-is-here]

I was responding to this question you posed to FNG:

FNG, I see this as a chicken or the egg thing. Do they get favorable calls because they are damn good at drawing fouls? Or are they damn good at drawing fouls because they play in LA? Lebron and Luka would draw fouls no matter where they play, but I think it gets exacerbated even more because of where they play.

That's why I posted numbers of individual Lakers over the past few years and how it compares to wearing other jerseys. LeBron, for example, shoots fewer free throws that he did previously. AD was about the same. Rui shot more with Washington than he does with LA. Etc.

Yes, in terms of the aggregate differential, it's quite a large amount, but what is the aggregate other than a collection of individual players who after a cursory look don't shoot more FTAs with LAL than they did at prior stops? The bottom line is that L.A. has had two of the most prolific foul-drawers on their roster for the past few years. Now it's Doncic instead of AD.

Perhaps the bias comes on the other side of the ball, where refs are less likely to call fouls on Laker players. I'm sure LeBron is given a ton of rope to be pretty physical, but overall I don't think of the Lakers as a super physical, clutch-and-grab type team.

[FNG]

I'm much more worried about Luka than LeBron and Reaves when it comes to drawing fouls...he's been averaging 9.2 FTAs per game since the all-star break, while James and Reaves are only about 5. But I'm sure the Lakers are quite concerned about Ant's ability to draw fouls. He averaged 7.1 FTAs since the all-star break, and if I'm not mistaken ranked in the top 3 in And 1's. Ant needs to be aggressive in attacking the rim with the little bit of resistance he'll see...he'll get the calls, and maybe even get the Lakers in foul trouble. And we need to be smart defending Luka and not fall for the little things he does to draw fouls. I'm looking at you, Jaden.

[Coolbreeze44]

I was responding to this question you posed to FNG:

FNG, I see this as a chicken or the egg thing. Do they get favorable calls because they are damn good at drawing fouls? Or are they damn good at drawing fouls because they play in LA? Lebron and Luka would draw fouls no matter where they play, but I think it gets exacerbated even more because of where they play.

That's why I posted numbers of individual Lakers over the past few years and how it compares to wearing other jerseys. LeBron, for example, shoots fewer free throws that he did previously. AD was about the same. Rui shot more with Washington than he does with LA. Etc.

Yes, in terms of the aggregate differential, it's quite a large amount, but what is the aggregate other than a collection of individual players who after a cursory look don't shoot more FTAs with LAL than they did at prior stops? The bottom line is that L.A. has had two of the most prolific foul-drawers on their roster for the past few years. Now it's Doncic instead of AD.

Perhaps the bias comes on the other side of the ball, where refs are less likely to call fouls on Laker players. I'm sure LeBron is given a ton of rope to be pretty physical, but overall I don't think of the Lakers as a super physical, clutch-and-grab type team.

You make a good argument. We will have to see how it plays out in this series. I'm expecting to have to overcome the Lakers and external factors.

[Phenom]

Perk and Udonis picking the Wolves tonight. Me O My.

[Wolvesfan21]

It pains me to say Lakers in 6, which is a popular choice here. Do I think we are disadvantaged in terms of the refs? Yes. But to me the main reason we lose this series is late game execution. There was absolutely zero growth from this team from Game 1 to Game 82 that would assuage our fears on this front.

Having said that, I'm thankful that we avoided the play-in game and Ant gets another playoff series. Even if we lose in six, he will have played in 33 playoff games by the age of 23 and faced off against some of the greatest players of all time in the process.

Agreed, I think really our only chance is if we get good leads going into the last 5 minutes. I am not sure why we just play backyard ball in the last especially 2 minutes of games. Do the players like Ant just not like the plays Finch wants to run? I get it he has the ultimate confidence to pull shit off, but maybe wait till you are 27-28 before going rouge.

I heard others say this in the other threads too. But Rudy has to dominate on both glasses. He has the size. We must out rebound them and out physical them. That I see is our only real advantage, and to win we have to use it. More aggressive, more physical, tougher and more energy team.

We did out physical them in game one. Can we do it again?

[mjs34]

We did out physical them in game one. Can we do it again?

I guess I missed the difference in physicality in game one, but get ready for completely one sided game 2. I can't remember when I last saw so many moving picks that were never called. The Lakers are setting up the refs for game 2 and a bunch more non-calls, as if they were on the wrong end of things in game one.

[Wolvesfan21]

We did out physical them in game one. Can we do it again?

I guess I missed the difference in physicality in game one, but get ready for completely one sided game 2. I can't remember when I last saw so many moving picks that were never called. The Lakers are setting up the refs for game 2 and a bunch more non-calls, as if they were on the wrong end of things in game one.

It was there, we outrebounded them, especially after the poor start we had the first 6 minutes. Jaden had I think 9 himself and was even bullying guys down low on that one offensive rebound and putback. The only guy sort of left out was Rudy and maybe that is our one ticket to cash in the next game. See him get back to his 18 and 12 maybe even 20 and 14 type of numbers.

Reddick and LeBron postgame said they were out physicalled / lacked the intensity of the Wolves. They weren't ready for the Wolves smoke.

I do expect LA to come back extremely strong in game 2. I just hope the refs keep their whistles to a minimum.

[FNG]

We did out physical them in game one. Can we do it again?

I guess I missed the difference in physicality in game one, but get ready for completely one sided game 2. I can't remember when I last saw so many moving picks that were never called. The Lakers are setting up the refs for game 2 and a bunch more non-calls, as if they were on the wrong end of things in game one.

It was there, we outrebounded them, especially after the poor start we had the first 6 minutes. Jaden had I think 9 himself and was even bullying guys down low on that one offensive rebound and putback. The only guy sort of left out was Rudy and maybe that is our one ticket to cash in the next game. See him get back to his 18 and 12 maybe even 20 and 14 type of numbers.

Reddick and LeBron postgame said they were out physicalled / lacked the intensity of the Wolves. They weren't ready for the Wolves smoke.

I do expect LA to come back extremely strong in game 2. I just hope the refs keep their whistles to a minimum.

Yeah, I agree that JJ is going to try to get them to be more physical in Game 2...he saw the huge disparity. I don't know if he will be successful though, because the Lakers are a very soft team. I didn't see the moving screens that sjm saw. What I saw was a Laker team that wasn't able to execute effective screens...they weren't able to force us into many switches because it was too easy just to fight through screens. I don't know if I've ever seen Jaden slip through picks so easily. In contrast, the ability of Rudy and Ju especially (but even Donte a couple times) to execute effective screens really made our offense tick.

[Sundog]

I picked Wolves in 6 but I didn’t feel at all confident about that until after game 1, lol