Ant and Winning a Title

[Phenom]

I doubt MJ ever missed two free throws like that

Google AI disagrees

[Coolbreeze44]

I doubt MJ ever missed two free throws like that

Google AI disagrees

In the Ehlo game?

[AussieWolf3]

I'm curious, what would be some ways for the team to get more catch and shoot threes for Ant?

I was surprised to find that Ant is averaging less then 2 C&S shots a game (all 3s)- however hes hitting them.at a 45% clip.

Is it just a matter of him playing better off ball? Is it unrealistic because of his usage rate? Most of the players near the top for attempts a game are not their team's most ball dominant player. Ant doesn't need to up to 6 a game (right about where DDV is actually), but 4 a game seems reasonable to me.

[KG4Ever]

It makes sense that the path of least resistance for the Wolves breaking through the Western Conference and getting to the Finals is for Ant to start playing like an MVP-candidate and gets in the conversation with the likes of SGA, Doncic, Giannis and Jokic. He doesn't have to necessarily win the MVP, but he ends up somewhere among the top 5 vote-getters.

But what if that never happens? What if he mostly is what he is at this point, which is in that next tier down, never quite breaking into the top 5 players in the league? Can the Wolves still win a title?

The answer is YES! Although it's obviously more difficult and there is far less room for error in building the roster. But here are seven examples in the last ~ 20 years of teams that won a title without a top-5 MVP vote getter. I will list the year, team, and their best player.

For reference, Ant had a PER of 20.1 and was 7th in MVP votes last year, his age 23 season. His current PER is 21.9 while in the midst of a shooting slump.

'23-24 Celtics: Jayson Tatum (Player Efficiency Rating = 22.3, 6th in MVP votes). And it was Jaylen Brown that won the Finals MVP that year! It was just a really well-constructed team without any holes in it.

'21-22 Warriors: Stephen Curry (PER = 21.4, 8th in MVP). This was Golden State's last title run and Curry, while still really good (and still is!), was past his peak. Perennial underachiever Andrew Wiggins of all people was key in them winning it all that year!

'18-19 Raptors: Kawhi Leonard (PER = 25.8, 9th in MVP). The Raptors had a really good team before the fleeting acquisition of Kawhi. He took them over the top. You could argue that being voted 9th in MVP that year was undervaluing his impact, but he certainly didn't put up Jokic, Giannis, or SGA-type numbers that season.

'13-14 Spurs: Tim Duncan (PER = 21.3, 12th in MVP). Duncan was pretty old at this point and well past his prime, but he was the best player on the team that had multiple great players, but none were clear MVP-caliber players at this point in time. Tony Parker led the team in scoring that season. He averaged 16.7 points per game!

'10-11 Mavs: Dirk Nowitzski (PER = 23.4, 6th in MVP). Dallas took down the super-friends team of LeBron, Wade, and Bosh that clearly had the most talent in the NBA at the peak of their collective powers. It can be done!

'05-06 Heat: Dwayne Wade (PER = 27.6, 6th in MVP). Based on Wade's PER, he exhibited MVP-caliber production, but only came in 6th the season he won a title pre-LeBron/super friends. But I think Ant at 26 or 27 could potentially get to this level.

'03-04 Pistons: Not Applicable. Not a single player on this team had a PER of 20 or higher. Richard Hamilton was their leading scorer at 17.6 PPG. Ben Wallace was the closest they had to an MVP. This is the guy that averaged 9 points, shot 42% from the field and 49% on free throws. And we complain about Rudy!?!

Most of those teams had great coaches with the possible exception of Dallas. Finch is far worse than any of them. Ant's supporting cast is far weaker than any of them and thanks to TC's boneheaded moves, there is little reason to expect much improvement and given the age of Gobert, Randle and Conley, digression is more likely.

[AbeVigodaLive]

It makes sense that the path of least resistance for the Wolves breaking through the Western Conference and getting to the Finals is for Ant to start playing like an MVP-candidate and gets in the conversation with the likes of SGA, Doncic, Giannis and Jokic. He doesn't have to necessarily win the MVP, but he ends up somewhere among the top 5 vote-getters.

But what if that never happens? What if he mostly is what he is at this point, which is in that next tier down, never quite breaking into the top 5 players in the league? Can the Wolves still win a title?

The answer is YES! Although it's obviously more difficult and there is far less room for error in building the roster. But here are seven examples in the last ~ 20 years of teams that won a title without a top-5 MVP vote getter. I will list the year, team, and their best player.

For reference, Ant had a PER of 20.1 and was 7th in MVP votes last year, his age 23 season. His current PER is 21.9 while in the midst of a shooting slump.

'23-24 Celtics: Jayson Tatum (Player Efficiency Rating = 22.3, 6th in MVP votes). And it was Jaylen Brown that won the Finals MVP that year! It was just a really well-constructed team without any holes in it.

'21-22 Warriors: Stephen Curry (PER = 21.4, 8th in MVP). This was Golden State's last title run and Curry, while still really good (and still is!), was past his peak. Perennial underachiever Andrew Wiggins of all people was key in them winning it all that year!

'18-19 Raptors: Kawhi Leonard (PER = 25.8, 9th in MVP). The Raptors had a really good team before the fleeting acquisition of Kawhi. He took them over the top. You could argue that being voted 9th in MVP that year was undervaluing his impact, but he certainly didn't put up Jokic, Giannis, or SGA-type numbers that season.

'13-14 Spurs: Tim Duncan (PER = 21.3, 12th in MVP). Duncan was pretty old at this point and well past his prime, but he was the best player on the team that had multiple great players, but none were clear MVP-caliber players at this point in time. Tony Parker led the team in scoring that season. He averaged 16.7 points per game!

'10-11 Mavs: Dirk Nowitzski (PER = 23.4, 6th in MVP). Dallas took down the super-friends team of LeBron, Wade, and Bosh that clearly had the most talent in the NBA at the peak of their collective powers. It can be done!

'05-06 Heat: Dwayne Wade (PER = 27.6, 6th in MVP). Based on Wade's PER, he exhibited MVP-caliber production, but only came in 6th the season he won a title pre-LeBron/super friends. But I think Ant at 26 or 27 could potentially get to this level.

'03-04 Pistons: Not Applicable. Not a single player on this team had a PER of 20 or higher. Richard Hamilton was their leading scorer at 17.6 PPG. Ben Wallace was the closest they had to an MVP. This is the guy that averaged 9 points, shot 42% from the field and 49% on free throws. And we complain about Rudy!?!

Most of those teams had great coaches with the possible exception of Dallas. Finch is far worse than any of them. Ant's supporting cast is far weaker than any of them and thanks to TC's boneheaded moves, there is little reason to expect much improvement and given the age of Gobert, Randle and Conley, digression is more likely.

Ooof. Sorry Rick Carlisle.

[AussieWolf3]

Found this on X today from a few hours ago

"The Timberwolves’ four-man lineup of Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Rudy Gobert, and Julius Randle is dominating opponents this season: Offensive Rating: 120.3 (3rd) Defensive Rating: 105.6 (2nd) Net Rating: +14.7 (2nd) Minnesota is a point guard away from Finals contention."

Obviously the reality is that you can't just slot a really good PG into that lineup without sacrificing elsewhere and expect it all to stay the same but.... It at the very least a silver lining that this group can play so well together lol

[Coolbreeze44]

Found this on X today from a few hours ago

"The Timberwolves’ four-man lineup of Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Rudy Gobert, and Julius Randle is dominating opponents this season: Offensive Rating: 120.3 (3rd) Defensive Rating: 105.6 (2nd) Net Rating: +14.7 (2nd) Minnesota is a point guard away from Finals contention."

Obviously the reality is that you can't just slot a really good PG into that lineup without sacrificing elsewhere and expect it all to stay the same but.... It at the very least a silver lining that this group can play so well together lol

To me it's so obvious. We need a floor general for so many reasons. This team is built to win right now. I wouldn't want to give up on Rob at this point, but we don't have the luxury of waiting for him to become the answer. And of course Mike is on his way out and could miss games at any time. Go out and get a plug and play PG, even though you will have to give up a piece or two you would rather hold on to. Take a swing TC, as Magic would say it's "winning time".

[60WinTim]

From one of my favorite analysis guys. He doesn't offer what the fix is, other than guys just have to be better...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bl0FMhB_2AM

[AussieWolf3]

Found this on X today from a few hours ago

"The Timberwolves’ four-man lineup of Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Rudy Gobert, and Julius Randle is dominating opponents this season: Offensive Rating: 120.3 (3rd) Defensive Rating: 105.6 (2nd) Net Rating: +14.7 (2nd) Minnesota is a point guard away from Finals contention."

Obviously the reality is that you can't just slot a really good PG into that lineup without sacrificing elsewhere and expect it all to stay the same but.... It at the very least a silver lining that this group can play so well together lol

To me it's so obvious. We need a floor general for so many reasons. This team is built to win right now. I wouldn't want to give up on Rob at this point, but we don't have the luxury of waiting for him to become the answer. And of course Mike is on his way out and could miss games at any time. Go out and get a plug and play PG, even though you will have to give up a piece or two you would rather hold on to. Take a swing TC, as Magic would say it's "winning time".

Rob's place on this roster is such a burden, you can't develope him now and also be committed to winning games. This not any kind of proclamation about whether he'll succeed or not, but there just isn't any reasonable way that he is a factor into this teams championship window. For everyone's sake he either needs to go down to Iowa or get moved to another team.

So who can they go get that's plug and play? I don't see it