The top 6 in the West

[AbeVigodaLive]

Is the team still utilizing Arnie Kander's banana peel treatments?

I hope not.

Discarded banana peels will always cause people to slip and fall.


[Note: Relatedly, never leave a rake lying on the ground. It's a surefire way to end up stepping on it and having the other end hit you in the face. Repeatedly. I've seen it happen!]

[Coolbreeze44]

Yep, I'm not too unhappy with where our club stands right now, and if the injury gods permit it, I agree we are set up for a deep run. Even though OkC has shown signs of coming back to the pack (and especially against teams with rim-protecting centers like the Spurs and Wolves), the goal still has to be to rise to a 2nd or 3rd seed to avoid the Thunder in the semis. Now that the Nuggets are missing the best player on the planet plus three other starters, there's no reason we shouldn't finish ahead of them. So then it's a question of passing either the Spurs or the Rockets. The Rockets no longer look as impressive on defense having dropped from 3rd to 9th in just 2 weeks, so I'm hoping we can pass them. And the Spurs have come back to earth also with losses to the hapless Cavs and Jazz this week, so 2nd is also not out of the question.

The NBA world is mourning the Jokic injury, but even though he's one of my favorite players, I'm not dressed in black today. Injuries are part of the game in the NBA and Denver has been very fortunate to have Joker for 69+ games every one of his 10 seasons. Plus, I'm a homer, and even though we aren't supposed to say the quiet part out loud, this really helps us in terms of playoff positioning. Be well, Nikola...but be well in 5 weeks .

At what point do we think the Wolves have some structural advantage with their medical and training staff and methods?? I feel like we have been one of the healthier teams in the NBA over the past few years. Surely some of that is good luck, but are we purely at the mercy of the injury gods or is there something else going on that is a strategic advantage for us??

Is there a connection with the Wolves mostly avoiding "rest" days?

While I know there are much smarter medical people out there than me advising NBA teams and players on load management, Wolves players tend to take fewer games off... and miss fewer games to injuries, too.

Could be a coincidence. Or will we learn something from the medical community in a few years that backs up the Wolves philosophy? Or, is it a players-led philosophy that trickles down to the rest of the team and organization? Despite what others may claim, I'm convinced the superstar players in the league decide when they play and when they sit.



[Note: I've mentioned this before, too... but are some of these dud performances partly due to these players battling the 82-game grind instead of the 66-game grind like other teams' top players? On one hand, the Wolves best players are out there as often as they can be... but it might not be an optimal performance at times.]

That's a great point Abe - I think there is a connection and so does Eddie Johnson.

[FNG]

I don't think there has been enough talk about OkC's struggles against West teams with winning records. They continue to dominate the East and losing West teams, but last night's loss to Phoenix was their 5th consecutive loss to winning West teams...they haven't beaten a West team with a winning record since December 10th, almost a month! And they are only 6-6 since that date (including the loss to the Spurs in the cup). Is it just boredom and complacency (something our Wolves are sometimes guilty of) or are they perhaps not so much better than the rest of the West?

[Q-is-here]

I don't think there has been enough talk about OkC's struggles against West teams with winning records. They continue to dominate the East and losing West teams, but last night's loss to Phoenix was their 5th consecutive loss to winning West teams...they haven't beaten a West team with a winning record since December 10th, almost a month! And they are only 6-6 since that date (including the loss to the Spurs in the cup). Is it just boredom and complacency (something our Wolves are sometimes guilty of) or are they perhaps not so much better than the rest of the West?

There are two areas where I've seen some softening, if you will, of their dominance. The first is Shai's FTAs. He was averaging 10 FTAs per game through the end of November, but has since averaged closer to 7. That's a big difference and I think some of that is a combination of smarter refs not falling for his grift and smarter defenders knowing how to defend him.

The other area is some halfcourt offensive vulnerabilities. I've said before they have the equivalent of three or four Jaylen Clarks on their team except all are better offensively. Well, a few of those guys have gone wobbly of late. Dort and Caruso have been off with their shooting and Cason Wallace is extremely limited other than catch and shoot 3s.

From a playoff perspective, if your opponent has three guys in their core rotation that are limited shooters and scorers, it seems like that's who you want the ball funneled to as much as possible while throwing everything but the kitchen sink at Shai, whose struggles (relatively speaking) offensively correlate with Thunder losses.

[FNG]

I agree with both of the reasons you cite for why they are a .500 team in December. I mentioned in the grifting thread that there is a theory out there that a viral video about Shae flopping really embarrassed the refs, and might have been a reason they are calling OkC games differently the past few weeks. And the half court struggles are real too. Their 5 losses to West teams have all been to teams with good rim protection (Spurs, Wolves and Suns...yes, the Suns...Williams has never been a great interior presence, but he is this season), and the never minds cause the Thunder to jack up more contested 3-pointers than they may like. And the Thunder have a lot of players who are taking more treys than they should.

OkC still has to be considered the front runner, because their defense gets them a lot of fast break points. But their next two games against above .500 West teams are next week against the Spurs and the Rockets. Sengun isn't considered a great rim protector, but he does contest a lot of shots in the paint. OkC may have 7 consecutive losses against winning West teams after those two games.

[AbeVigodaLive]

The Lakers seemingly win all of their close games, thus their record is better than their statistical "Expected Wins", which would put them at 14-11. Really hoping they start regressing to the mean.

The Wolves have done a waaaaaay better job this season beating the teams they are supposed to beat. It hasn't been perfect or pretty all the time, but it's a lot better than last year. Now we need to start notching some more wins against tougher competition.

A couple of things:

- A top 10 rating on both offense and defense is a surefire sign that a team is legit... potentially as a Finals team.
- And that makes the 2014 Wolves (discussed previously) such a goofy team. That team was a top 10 team on both sides until the last week of the season... and finished 40 - 42. Almost unheard of. The team Expected W/L was 48 - 34.
- And that nugget brings me to the Los Angeles Lakers. I've shared the exact numbers before... but no NBA team is remotely close to surpassing its Expected W/L total as often or as much as the Lakers.

Lakers Expected W/L in recent PLAYOFF seasons (seems relevant):

+3 this season already.
+6 last season
+5 in 2024
+1 in 2023
= in 2021 (72 games)
+4 in 2020
+2 in 2017
+1 in 2013
+5 in 2012 (66 games)
Total: +27 in playoff seasons. (+24 in all seasons since 2012) Never more than -2 in any season, including 55+-loss seasons since 2000.
- The Lakers were the league leader in exceeding their Expected Wins multiple times.

Conversely... Minnesota:

= this season
-4 last season
-1 in 2024
+1 in 2023
-2 in 2022
-1 in 2021
-5 in 2020
-1 in 2019
= in 2018
-7 in 2017
-2 in 2016
-3 in 2015
-8 in 2014
-3 in 2013
-2 in 2012
Total: -38 (only one + season... and only by 1 game)

__________________________________________________

Is this some sort of statistical anomaly/miracle? Ahem, ahem... do you guys want me to share free throw data (especially late in seasons when the Lakers were facing missing the playoffs)? It's pretty damn telling.

Also important to remember... this period for both teams represents both really good and really bad seasons for both teams. Different coaches. Different players. Different management groups. Heck... different ownership groups.

But there's still a consistency to it, right? Again, statistical anomaly or pretty damn telling?

____________________________________________________

Just another entirely random and totally not meaningful stat at all...

- Since 2022...

The Lakers have taken 1,460 more FTAs than their opponents. The next team on the list is +699. Regardless of who's playing for the lakers or not... or who's coaching them... they just consistently get fouled more while fouling a lot less than every other NBA team.

UPDATE on the Lakers unique ability to win more games than expected... pretty much every season:

In less than two weeks, the Lakers went from a league-leading +3 in actual wins vs. Expected wins... to a league-leading +5. No other team is better than +2 for the season... and only two other WC teams (SAS and UTA) are + at all.

Crazy coincidence.



[Note: For what it's worth... during Luka Doncic's career in Dallas... the Mavs were -7 overall in Expected W/L. Plus, James, Reaves, and Doncic have combined to miss 30 games this season, accounting for 33% of the season, so guys like Jake LaRavia and Rui Hachimura must have that same "just win" gene that players on nearly every Lakers team for the past 25 years have had.]

UPDATE (apologies... but this is my pet project for now...)

Lakers Expected W/L: 16 - 17.
Lakers actual W/L: 22 - 11.

So the Lakers are now +6 already. Portland and SAS are in 2nd place at +2. Collectively, the West is -5 overall... and only 3 of the top 12 teams are on the plus side.

[rapsuperstar31]

I didn't watch it, but it sounded like Phoenix was hunting SGA on defense in the clutch last night. It's not a bad idea, when you consider the other defenders they have.

[Q-is-here]

I didn't watch it, but it sounded like Phoenix was hunting SGA on defense in the clutch last night. It's not a bad idea, when you consider the other defenders they have.

And now they are getting blown out by Charlotte.....at home! What in the world? I know they miss Hartenstein, but still, that's a shocker.

(but I agree with the idea of hunting Shai. Seems like the key to beating OKC is to go at him and then swarm him on defense making others try to beat you).

[FNG]

I guess the problems in OkC run a lot deeper than not being able to beat .500+ West teams. They're losing by 27 at home to the lowly Hornets...getting outrebounded 48-31 and shooting 28% beyond the arc. Play in team now?

Jinx, Q...

[FNG]

I read something today that made me not feel as confident about our 2-game lead over Houston. They have played only 13 games at home where they are 11-2, and 23 on the road where they are 11-12. If they continue with the same home and away winning percentages, they will finish with 54 wins. Suddenly our prospects to finish ahead of the Rockets don't seem so rosy.