Wolves Offseason Point Guard Options

[60WinTim]

Ayo is young, can shoot, play defense, push pace, and is a smart player. Don't know why that isn't the slam dunk answer

No doubt! But we do need another backcourt player with Donte out...

[Q-is-here]

Ayo is young, can shoot, play defense, push pace, and is a smart player. Don't know why that isn't the slam dunk answer

Yeah, he absolutely checks a lot of the boxes. I think the question is whether he's point guard-y enough. We know he can bring the ball up and initiate sets, but how much of a thinker is he out there in terms of how he gets guys involved, where they like passes delivered, where are their "spots", when to get a bucket himself, etc.

And even if he is the answer, who the heck is our 3rd guard (edit: I just see Tim had the same thought!)?? The DDV injury looms large as he literally played 82 games and had one hell of a season. I think it might still make sense to get get a true PG. Collin Gillespie or Tre Jones could make a lot of sense as that 3rd guard if we decide not to take a big gamble on someone like Kyrie.

[AussieWolf3]

Ayo is young, can shoot, play defense, push pace, and is a smart player. Don't know why that isn't the slam dunk answer

Yeah, he absolutely checks a lot of the boxes. I think the question is whether he's point guard-y enough. We know he can bring the ball up and initiate sets, but how much of a thinker is he out there in terms of how he gets guys involved, where they like passes delivered, where are their "spots", when to get a bucket himself, etc.

And even if he is the answer, who the heck is our 3rd guard (edit: I just see Tim had the same thought!)?? The DDV injury looms large as he literally played 82 games and had one hell of a season. I think it might still make sense to get get a true PG. Collin Gillespie or Tre Jones could make a lot of sense as that 3rd guard if we decide not to take a big gamble on someone like Kyrie.

Plus, with Ayo, there is still the matter of what you do with the frontcourt.

They can decide to run this back with Ayo as the starting PG, but you can't run it back with Randle and Rudy in any scenario. So you have a chance to flip assets, but what are aiming to get back in return?

Fwiw I don't think Ayo is a starting PG. There is a pattern now of him struggling to produce against good defenses and I continue to be as perplexed as others by the disconnect between the eye test and analytical metrics with him. Everything from net rating to DPM is discouraging from him.

The only encouraging stat that I can find for him, that correlates with offensive impact, is his relative TS (rTS) and zTS --- which adjust TS shooting for play type difficulty---

Ayo had and has had good to great rTS numbers, this year he was 2ns best in the rotation +5.3. his zTS was +4.8 which was 2nd to Ant who was +6.2. zTS has been shown to be stable year to year and predictive of offensive impact, it's not just a cherry picked stat.

[guest81]

Ayo is young, can shoot, play defense, push pace, and is a smart player. Don't know why that isn't the slam dunk answer

Yeah, he absolutely checks a lot of the boxes. I think the question is whether he's point guard-y enough. We know he can bring the ball up and initiate sets, but how much of a thinker is he out there in terms of how he gets guys involved, where they like passes delivered, where are their "spots", when to get a bucket himself, etc.

And even if he is the answer, who the heck is our 3rd guard (edit: I just see Tim had the same thought!)?? The DDV injury looms large as he literally played 82 games and had one hell of a season. I think it might still make sense to get get a true PG. Collin Gillespie or Tre Jones could make a lot of sense as that 3rd guard if we decide not to take a big gamble on someone like Kyrie.

Plus, with Ayo, there is still the matter of what you do with the frontcourt.

They can decide to run this back with Ayo as the starting PG, but you can't run it back with Randle and Rudy in any scenario. So you have a chance to flip assets, but what are aiming to get back in return?

Fwiw I don't think Ayo is a starting PG. There is a pattern now of him struggling to produce against good defenses and I continue to be as perplexed as others by the disconnect between the eye test and analytical metrics with him. Everything from net rating to DPM is discouraging from him.

The only encouraging stat that I can find for him, that correlates with offensive impact, is his relative TS (rTS) and zTS --- which adjust TS shooting for play type difficulty---

Ayo had and has had good to great rTS numbers, this year he was 2ns best in the rotation +5.3. his zTS was +4.8 which was 2nd to Ant who was +6.2. zTS has been shown to be stable year to year and predictive of offensive impact, it's not just a cherry picked stat.

Where is the narrative that ayo struggles against good defenses? He shot 50-42 in the playoffs and the only time he looked bad is when he was clearly hurt

[rapsuperstar31]

Ayo is young, can shoot, play defense, push pace, and is a smart player. Don't know why that isn't the slam dunk answer

We sadly didn't see a healthy Ant and Ayo play next to each other at all this year. That game 4 against San Antonio where Ayo kept dribbling it to the corner and turned it over was discouraging in the clutch before his hail marry save off his leg to win the game. We need a point guard that can set up players for easy buckets preferably 7+ assists per game, and that can handle that pressure against double teams and not turn it over. Now I do think he was pretty hobbled and holding back with his injury and free agency coming up, so I know he can do better. I think both Ayo and Ant would prefer to not have non shooters in the paint in Rudy and Randle clogging the driving lanes. Ayo has shown sparks like that Denver game where he dropped 43, but not much in other games. He did the same healthy in Chicago with his inconsistency. If you give him the keys as the starting point guard, can he average 7+ assists per game, which is the biggest thing we need?

[TheFuture]

Ayo is young, can shoot, play defense, push pace, and is a smart player. Don't know why that isn't the slam dunk answer

I'm operating under the premise that the team absolutely keeps Ayo. A lot of the players I listed can slot in at PG or SG, Ayo included. I also think Bones stays. A guard rotation of Ant, Ayo, Bones, TSJ (SG/SF), and any of the two I listed above is something I would be happy with. Depending on the player targeted, Randle or Donte is moved to that team, i.e. Quickley, Giddey etc. Or if the targets are lower scale Donte is moved and Randle is used in a trade for frontcourt depth behind Naz and Rudy and a shooter. I expect the TPE to be utilized as well.

[TheFuture]

Ayo is young, can shoot, play defense, push pace, and is a smart player. Don't know why that isn't the slam dunk answer

Yeah, he absolutely checks a lot of the boxes. I think the question is whether he's point guard-y enough. We know he can bring the ball up and initiate sets, but how much of a thinker is he out there in terms of how he gets guys involved, where they like passes delivered, where are their "spots", when to get a bucket himself, etc.

And even if he is the answer, who the heck is our 3rd guard (edit: I just see Tim had the same thought!)?? The DDV injury looms large as he literally played 82 games and had one hell of a season. I think it might still make sense to get get a true PG. Collin Gillespie or Tre Jones could make a lot of sense as that 3rd guard if we decide not to take a big gamble on someone like Kyrie.

The Kyrie gamble has yet to work out for any team. Ja hasn't worked for 4 years now, and hasn't improved a lick. Garland is often injured and paid way too much.. Murray is often injured, but he did improve his shooting while his defense has dipped. He is also paid the least of the 4 and has plus size at the position so I'd choose him of the 4, but I really would rather not touch any of them.

[AussieWolf3]

Yeah, he absolutely checks a lot of the boxes. I think the question is whether he's point guard-y enough. We know he can bring the ball up and initiate sets, but how much of a thinker is he out there in terms of how he gets guys involved, where they like passes delivered, where are their "spots", when to get a bucket himself, etc.

And even if he is the answer, who the heck is our 3rd guard (edit: I just see Tim had the same thought!)?? The DDV injury looms large as he literally played 82 games and had one hell of a season. I think it might still make sense to get get a true PG. Collin Gillespie or Tre Jones could make a lot of sense as that 3rd guard if we decide not to take a big gamble on someone like Kyrie.

Plus, with Ayo, there is still the matter of what you do with the frontcourt.

They can decide to run this back with Ayo as the starting PG, but you can't run it back with Randle and Rudy in any scenario. So you have a chance to flip assets, but what are aiming to get back in return?

Fwiw I don't think Ayo is a starting PG. There is a pattern now of him struggling to produce against good defenses and I continue to be as perplexed as others by the disconnect between the eye test and analytical metrics with him. Everything from net rating to DPM is discouraging from him.

The only encouraging stat that I can find for him, that correlates with offensive impact, is his relative TS (rTS) and zTS --- which adjust TS shooting for play type difficulty---

Ayo had and has had good to great rTS numbers, this year he was 2ns best in the rotation +5.3. his zTS was +4.8 which was 2nd to Ant who was +6.2. zTS has been shown to be stable year to year and predictive of offensive impact, it's not just a cherry picked stat.

Where is the narrative that ayo struggles against good defenses? He shot 50-42 in the playoffs and the only time he looked bad is when he was clearly hurt

He needs a open lane with no rim protection to do anything on offense besides shooting. He's a useful player for sure, but I haven't seen much that says he can breakdown a defense and play make out of that. It's primarily transition points, 3pt looks and attacks to the rim. Legit good player, but I'm not buying that he would improve the teams overall playmaking especially as the expense of Randle

[rapsuperstar31]

Ayo is young, can shoot, play defense, push pace, and is a smart player. Don't know why that isn't the slam dunk answer

Yeah, he absolutely checks a lot of the boxes. I think the question is whether he's point guard-y enough. We know he can bring the ball up and initiate sets, but how much of a thinker is he out there in terms of how he gets guys involved, where they like passes delivered, where are their "spots", when to get a bucket himself, etc.

And even if he is the answer, who the heck is our 3rd guard (edit: I just see Tim had the same thought!)?? The DDV injury looms large as he literally played 82 games and had one hell of a season. I think it might still make sense to get get a true PG. Collin Gillespie or Tre Jones could make a lot of sense as that 3rd guard if we decide not to take a big gamble on someone like Kyrie.

The Kyrie gamble has yet to work out for any team. Ja hasn't worked for 4 years now, and hasn't improved a lick. Garland is often injured and paid way too much.. Murray is often injured, but he did improve his shooting while his defense has dipped. He is also paid the least of the 4 and has plus size at the position so I'd choose him of the 4, but I really would rather not touch any of them.

Dallas got pretty close, that teams needed another shooter to space the floor against Boston, and Luka was a cone on defense in that series. The half court alley oops would be fun to watch for a few years, and maybe he can rub off on Ant and the others with his passing. I wouldn't trade much for him. Randle a trade exception and one draft pick.

[TheFuture]

Yeah, he absolutely checks a lot of the boxes. I think the question is whether he's point guard-y enough. We know he can bring the ball up and initiate sets, but how much of a thinker is he out there in terms of how he gets guys involved, where they like passes delivered, where are their "spots", when to get a bucket himself, etc.

And even if he is the answer, who the heck is our 3rd guard (edit: I just see Tim had the same thought!)?? The DDV injury looms large as he literally played 82 games and had one hell of a season. I think it might still make sense to get get a true PG. Collin Gillespie or Tre Jones could make a lot of sense as that 3rd guard if we decide not to take a big gamble on someone like Kyrie.

The Kyrie gamble has yet to work out for any team. Ja hasn't worked for 4 years now, and hasn't improved a lick. Garland is often injured and paid way too much.. Murray is often injured, but he did improve his shooting while his defense has dipped. He is also paid the least of the 4 and has plus size at the position so I'd choose him of the 4, but I really would rather not touch any of them.

Dallas got pretty close, that teams needed another shooter to space the floor against Boston, and Luka was a cone on defense in that series. The half court alley oops would be fun to watch for a few years, and maybe he can rub off on Ant and the others with his passing. I wouldn't trade much for him. Randle a trade exception and one draft pick.

Dallas doesn't need Randle, like at all. They have Washington and Flagg who can play there. They have Lively, Gafford, and Flagg as their own great lob threats who Kyrie can utilize. Moving Kyrie for Randle just creates their own PG problem. Their pick at #9 is also going to be where a lot of PGs or PFs are expected to be available. So if it's a PG they'd want Kyrie as the mentor, and if it's a PF then they'd be jammed up if they added Randle. Not to mention Middletons contract is falling off and they'll have some cap to play with in FA.