Wolves Offseason Forward Options

[Q-is-here]

It's a legit vulnerability and one that Trey Lyles can help address.....to a point. He shouldn't play more minutes than necessary just because he has conventional size. 15-18 MPG sounds about right.

I guess it's a vulnerability I'm willing to live with for now given the advantages we get in other ways by having more shooters and mobility on the floor. All these bigger PFs mentioned above have to keep up with our guys on the other end!

I also have cringe memories of KAT inevitiably being guarded by some undersized forward from the opposing team and struggling to take advantage, often committing offensive fouls or throwing the ball away. How often has someone like Abe commented on the amount of contact a smaller defender can get away with when guarding bigger guys in the post? It's something we can finally benefit from if a guy like Shannon or Green or Clark is assigned to hound a PF.

[Q-is-here]

If bleeping Chet Holmgren can be a top 2 or 3 defender in the league as a 4/5 than Jaden will be fine as a 4/3.

I disagree that Jaden is best on the perimeter. He's a great low man defender who would be highly switchable. This is essentially what makes Chet so impactful.

Some side by side analysis between Jaden, Chet, and yes Victor Wembanyhama of their rim defense.

Stat: Vic/Chet/Jmac
RimPts saved/100: 1.7 / 3.1 / 1.8
RimDFG/100: 10.1 / 10.2 / 8.4
RimFG% Diff: -8.6 / -15.2 / -10.7

He's done that while playing as a wing, he has such a good feel and the requisite length to be great as low man and he completely wasted imo at the POA. Not that he isn't great as a POA defender, but 48 minutes of it is completely wasteful.

Does ESPN or any other site update hts and wts? Jaden is still listed at 6'9" which we know he isn't any more and honest to god he looks more like 6'11".

There is risk here obviously but I simply don't agree with Dane and Kyle and others who think it's crazy to start Jaden at PF and in fact I think it will make the defense better. There are simply other ways to win than simply weight, even if your opponent is able to out muscle you. To be honest we've really jumped the shark somewhere here; Jaden has spent a significant amount of a time defending the likes of Kawhi, Deni and even Zion and the league has shown that you can defend the likes of Kat, Jokic and Chet with shorter players and they won't just "shoot over them."

I want a traditionally sized PF on the roster so that you can run lineups with Jaden at the 3 and I really don't know if Lyles is that guy, so it really will be interesting to see what happens but I do believe Jaden can thrive as a starting PF.

PS- Tobias Harris is literally the same size as Julian Champenie, so this whole idea that SA went and addressed their size concerns is a bit misleading.

People would say the same things about Wemby and Chet in terms of their lack of girth/lower body strength yet one is the best defensive big in the modern era and the other is wearing a ring. The sickly-looking Chet spends nearly 50% of his time playing Center for OKC since iHart only plays around 24MPG.

With Jaden, he will always have a taller/bigger player next to him in Rudy or Joan, both of whom have excellent size at Center.

[AussieWolf3]

It's a legit vulnerability and one that Trey Lyles can help address.....to a point. He shouldn't play more minutes than necessary just because he has conventional size. 15-18 MPG sounds about right.

I guess it's a vulnerability I'm willing to live with for now given the advantages we get in other ways by having more shooters and mobility on the floor. All these bigger PFs mentioned above have to keep up with our guys on the other end!

I also have cringe memories of KAT inevitiably being guarded by some undersized forward from the opposing team and struggling to take advantage, often committing offensive fouls or throwing the ball away. How often has someone like Abe commented on the amount of contact a smaller defender can get away with when guarding bigger guys in the post? It's something we can finally benefit from if a guy like Shannon or Green or Clark is assigned to hound a PF.

A legit vulnerability is the correct assessment imo, that, like you said, we can live with. I think Chet specifically shows how you can win big with this type of player.

If I were to draw up the ideal role for Jaden it would still be as a SF, but one who defends off ball at a much much higher frequency than he has to this point in his career. To do that you need a 1 or 2 that guard at the POA which to be honest is a rarity, so playing PF with Green or Ayo at 3 is a worthwhile compromise to me

[FNG]

I still suspect TC and Finchy don't want to move Jaden away from the SF position he is thriving at, and I give TC more than a 50% chance of adding a true starting PF to the roster...he may very well not be one of our best 5 players (unless it's LBJ), but he will allow Jaden to stay in his natural position.

But if not: Can Jaden play most of his minutes at the 4? The answer is yes, but it's not optimal. I liken it to the question Finchy had to answer at the start of last season after he determined Mike was no longer a suitable starter, and the answer is the same: Can Ant play most of his minutes at PG? Yes, but as we found out, it's not optimal.

[60WinTim]

I know everyone appreciates the addition of Lyles, especially as a backup. But I think he's going to surprise some people. He's a role playing PF, much in the fashion of PJ Washington. He had a down season two years ago, but clearly found himself again overseas, and wanted back into the NBA (first noted by phenom!). He seems like a great fit on this team. He doesn't have to carry any sort of play making, just hit the open shots when they come. And play solid defense, which is an easier task with Rudy behind you. I think he's going to have a productive year with the Wolves. Unless some significant addition happens, I expect him to be our starting PF. Now, he may only average 20 minutes a game, with Jaden or others playing the 4. But a starting lineup with Lyles at PF provides an opportunity for everyone to embrace their roles and help the team get off to great starts -- something we didn't always see last season.

[AussieWolf3]

I still suspect TC and Finchy don't want to move Jaden away from the SF position he is thriving at, and I give TC more than a 50% chance of adding a true starting PF to the roster...he may very well not be one of our best 5 players (unless it's LBJ), but he will allow Jaden to stay in his natural position.

But if not: Can Jaden play most of his minutes at the 4? The answer is yes, but it's not optimal. I liken it to the question Finchy had to answer at the start of last season after he determined Mike was no longer a suitable starter, and the answer is the same: Can Ant play most of his minutes at PG? Yes, but as we found out, it's not optimal.

Is he thriving?

[AussieWolf3]

I know everyone appreciates the addition of Lyles, especially as a backup. But I think he's going to surprise some people. He's a role playing PF, much in the fashion of PJ Washington. He had a down season two years ago, but clearly found himself again overseas, and wanted back into the NBA (first noted by phenom!). He seems like a great fit on this team. He doesn't have to carry any sort of play making, just hit the open shots when they come. And play solid defense, which is an easier task with Rudy behind you. I think he's going to have a productive year with the Wolves. Unless some significant addition happens, I expect him to be our starting PF. Now, he may only average 20 minutes a game, with Jaden or others playing the 4. But a starting lineup with Lyles at PF provides an opportunity for everyone to embrace their roles and help the team get off to great starts -- something we didn't always see last season.

I could see this being the case, but I am very cautious of Lyles being that level of player.

A Jaden plus Ayo, Green or Clark seems like a better combination to me, but I'm curious the direction this goes

[SameOldNudityDrew]

This isn't about Trey Lyles.

This is about how we are going to fill 48 minutes a night at that position.

And IMO, Lyles fits the type of player we need in that role. A legit-sized 4 who can stretch the floor.

But Lyles averaged 18 minutes off the bench for four years before the Sacramento Kings opted not to keep him at the end of the 2024-25 season. That's not a guy that a serious contender should have to trust with anything more than backup minutes at the 4.

Jaden is an awesome player. I love him. I can see him playing some at the 4 and I'm interested in the kinds of advantages that might bring us at times. But at this point, if we go into the season expecting Jaden to start at the 4 and play the majority of his minutes there with nobody who could legitimately take that starting role from him if and when the negatives outweigh the positives because of the advantages it would give other teams over us (which I laid out in my earlier thread--limiting our options of who to put Jaden on defensively, subjecting ourselves to mismatches our opponents could exploit, etc.), I think we're going into the season taking a huge risk with no serious backup plan and therefore little flexibility. It's basically ceding the ground to our opponents to be able to create mismatches against us and we don't really have the ability to respond.

If we don't add anybody else and Jaden starts at the 4, it will mean one of four things: 1) Jaden will either have to defend bigger guys who will be beating him up night after night and getting him into foul trouble, or 2) other guys (TJ, Ayo, Ant) will have to defend taller guys and have to deal with those disadvantages, or 3) we'd have to rely on a guy who wasn't even in the NBA last year more than a contender should, or 4) we'd have to play Beringer at the 4 next to Rudy and kill our offense.

Why would we go into the season leaving ourselves only those 4 options in a season that is so important?

[Monster]

How many of them are actually going to post you up and make you pay for the size difference?

Finally someone made a list!

Some of those guys barely dribble the ball.

Honestly Zion is about the only guy that worries me and I don't really know what you are gonna do about that. If it's that big of a problem just put Beringer on him to start and see what happens. Who is their starting center?

Fair points. Let's play this argument out.

Guys who can handle the ball well at that size
Zion-obviously
Boozer-this dude will be a serious problem
Kawhi-c'mon, obviously
Miles Bridges-gives up height on Jaden, but will try to go through him
Deni-very physical and got a LOT better driving the last couple years
Tobias Harris-getting older, but great addition for the Spurs damnit
Chet-but he's the one dude on this list who probably won't just drive through Jaden

So yeah, it's not every guy on that list who is just going to drive through a thinner or smaller guy with the ball totally under control, but that is 6 dudes on the list who likely will. Chet won't be able to drive through Jaden, but we'll have to put Jaden on him because he'd punish any shorter guys we put on him by just shooting over them easily. I think whether you're going with Jaden who is giving up a lot of weight, or TJ or Green(?) who are giving up height, or Ayo or Clark who are giving up both, those guys would give us problems off the dribble. You could maybe add Gordon and/or Draymond to that list too, but just to be conservative, I left them off since Gordon is more of a finisher who can straight-line drive if needed, and Green is a beast with a handle, but not much of a finisher anymore.

The problem is, the weight advantage is not limited to just trying to drive on you with the ball.

• Rim crashing

• Getting deep seals

• Boxing out

• Just going up big for rebounds generally

• Cutting without the ball to look for the catch

• Setting screens

There are a ton of ways that just being heavier gives you an advantage in basketball. I'm not including traditional offensive post-up offense here like Tim Duncan or anything because it has kind of become a lost art anyway. But even without that, I just think weight gives you a big advantage.

And that's if you assume Jaden is guarding those guys. If you put Jaden on perimeter ballhandlers, where he's honestly best suited defensively, now you've got to go with TJ or Green or Ayo or Clark or Ant, all of whom are more stout than Jaden (and their lower center of gravity could help in cases) but now you've got another set of problems. Most of those other starting PFs are still heavier than TJ, Green, Ayo, Clark, and Ant, and they're basically all taller too. So even if their weight advantage is mitigated somewhat, now you've got to worry about those guys who can also use their height to get off shots over you more easily.

Guys who will shoot over shorter defenders
Jabari
JJJ
Kawhi (if he stays)
Tobias
Keegan Murray
PJ
Rui
Mamu
Chet
Boozer
Gordon

So I get what you guys are saying that it's not necessarily the end of the world, but I just think there are a lot of ways that not having a guy with traditional PF size to start (I'm hoping we don't have to rely on Lyles for this) could really give other teams some real advantages over us, including potentially forcing us to take Jaden off his best defensive role as a perimeter defender. And sure, maybe we could try to counter with Joan at the 4, but I just don't see that as feasible because neither he nor Rudy can space the floor so that will kill your offense.

Also, I'm using the same weights on ESPN for all players, so unless ESPN has kept only Jaden's weight from when he was drafted but increased everyone else's, then it's fair to assume that what our eyes tell us is true--they're all probably a little heavier than what they're listed at and Jaden is still just much thinner than all the other projected starting PFs in the WC except Chet.

I do still think this is going to be a problem unless we solve it by bringing in somebody else besides Lyles who is similarly big and hopefully better. For a few years now, we've been the team beating up on other teams with our size. Now that we've lost two of our three bigs in our rotation and Beringer can only really play backup C, and Lyles wasn't even in the league last year, and Jaden really is giving up a LOT of weight against other PFs and is best suited defending perimeter guys and we've got nobody else really go guard those dudes--I just think this is legitimately a problem.

I have zero concerns about Jaden guarding Harris.

If Jaden can't guard Bridges who has basically the same length as a few of the other wing plays on the Wolves roster...then maybe Jaden isn't even a SF.

There are PFs that will struggle to guard guys like Kawahi or Deni because they can play a lot on the perimeter.

Idk what Andrew Wiggins actually weighs now but I remember the last year he was with the Wolves he had gotten to the place where he was actually an option guarding some 4s. He had gotten stronger and better at guarding bigger players. I'm not suggesting he was a full time 4 but him guarding anyone that was a 4 his first couple years was laughable. I remember tashaun Prince taking him to the woodshed in the post Wiggins rookie year. Jaden is much longer and has always been a better defensive player than Wiggins. There is also an element of Jaden playing the 4 as a team defender that gets lost in the worry he can't play individually against some PFs. Having a PF that can actually help off and protect the paint etc is a big deal. Jaden can do that.

[Monster]

This isn't about Trey Lyles.

This is about how we are going to fill 48 minutes a night at that position.

And IMO, Lyles fits the type of player we need in that role. A legit-sized 4 who can stretch the floor.

But Lyles averaged 18 minutes off the bench for four years before the Sacramento Kings opted not to keep him at the end of the 2024-25 season. That's not a guy that a serious contender should have to trust with anything more than backup minutes at the 4.

Jaden is an awesome player. I love him. I can see him playing some at the 4 and I'm interested in the kinds of advantages that might bring us at times. But at this point, if we go into the season expecting Jaden to start at the 4 and play the majority of his minutes there with nobody who could legitimately take that starting role from him if and when the negatives outweigh the positives because of the advantages it would give other teams over us (which I laid out in my earlier thread--limiting our options of who to put Jaden on defensively, subjecting ourselves to mismatches our opponents could exploit, etc.), I think we're going into the season taking a huge risk with no serious backup plan and therefore little flexibility. It's basically ceding the ground to our opponents to be able to create mismatches against us and we don't really have the ability to respond.

If we don't add anybody else and Jaden starts at the 4, it will mean one of four things: 1) Jaden will either have to defend bigger guys who will be beating him up night after night and getting him into foul trouble, or 2) other guys (TJ, Ayo, Ant) will have to defend taller guys and have to deal with those disadvantages, or 3) we'd have to rely on a guy who wasn't even in the NBA last year more than a contender should, or 4) we'd have to play Beringer at the 4 next to Rudy and kill our offense.

Why would we go into the season leaving ourselves only those 4 options in a season that is so important?

I'm not sure we should be concerned about what the Kings did or didn't do with a player. That team is a bit of a mess right now. Last year Murray and Derozen played most of the minutes at the forward position. They signed Drew Eubanks and Precious last year to add to their depth for vet min deals which I think made sense considering who they have on their roster. Keep in mind this is the franchise that decided Mike Brown wasn't a good enough coach and promoted Doug Christie who imo has shown nothing to make me think he is an NBA head coach.

If Lebron doesn't choose us the Wolves could sign another depth guy at the PF spot. There are guys like Olynyk who could provide legit depth minutes. There are some younger experienced guys like Sochan. Then there is the possibility that some guy simply gets cut and the Wolves have a PF spot just sitting there. One thing Connelly has done here is he often has found ways to have depth on the roster. I'd guess he has some options to help at least give the team another option like you and everyone else is considering. The off-season is still young. A bunch of guys haven't even officially signed deals yet.