Hypothetical Starting 5 / Rotation

[Lipoli390]

Like the signing, especially at that price. JK brings top level athleticism. Watching video on him the last couple of days he clearly plays like he's bigger than he is. Impressive strength with next level athleticism. He'll start in the front court, but think he will get a lot of run with the 2nd unit being the primary scorer.

Surely we won't have to waive and stretch Josh Green. He's a solid rotation player on an expiring contract. We also have a 2031 2nd RP we can attach if need be.

Josh Green and that pick to CHI for Jalen Smith would be perfect. Not sure if CHI would though.

I agree signing Kuminga at that price was an excellent move. The point of adding a starting caliber PF to the roster was to add someone better than Trey Lyles with the size and strength of a PF. Kuminga is a beast. He’s not huge but he has PF size. His 8’11 standing reach matches the average 8’11.5 reach of NBA PFs. He weighed 220 lbs at the draft combine, but like every NBA player giving from age 19 to 24, he’s likely put on about 10 pounds. So I’m guessing he’s around 230 right now, which matches the average NBA PF weight of 233. Watching his highlights you can see that he is really, really strong. And he’s obviously an elite athlete.

Fingers crossed that Kuminga has had an epiphany after a somber period of self-reflection. I’d be surprised if TC and Finch did not make it clear to Kuminga that he needs to defend, rebound and accept a limited offensive role as a fast-break finisher, half-court cutter and offensive rebounder, and that he needs to focus on becoming an elite on-ball defender while tapping into his already impressive defensive rebounding percentage in previous seasons.

[Q-is-here]

With the addition of JK as our starting PF, I think we now have a pretty good idea of what the 9-man rotation will look like...and it looks quite promising to me. I think it will look something like this:

C: Rudy 32, Joan 16
PF: JK 32, Lyles 16
SF: Jaden 35, TJ 13
SG: Ant 38, Ayo 10
PG: Ball 32, Ayo 16

Assuming good health and performance, Donte will make it a 10-man rotation when he returns...with his minutes coming from Ant, Ayo and TJ. And we still have Clark and Bones as rotation-worthy options waiting in the wings. I really like what TC has built here.

Those would be career-high MPG for Kuminga, Jaden, and Ant. I don't see any of them playing that many minutes, with all of them playing 2-5 MPG less than you are forecasting here.

I also think Lyles might be a bit more situational now, meaning he may be the 9th man against bigger, slower teams and out of the rotation against faster, smaller teams.

Finally, I expect Clark to get another shot at being in the regular rotation, especially with Green most likely being let go.

Q, you're correct that JK has never played close to 32 minutes a game. But I would push back that he has never been the default starter on any team he has been on...he did start half the games for GS in 23-4 when he averaged 26.3 MPG, but his MPG were limited by all the games he came off the bench. Further, how often does a Finchy starter play less than 30 MPG...barring injury or foul trouble? I agree with you though that it might be beneficial to dial back Ant's minutes a little.

Then there's Clark. I kept a tally last season of how will the Wolves did when he played 14 minutes or more. It was impressive for a while, but I stopped keeping track when the data reversed on him. I so much want Clark to succeed and be a rotation player, but his shooting struggles and over-exuberance at times on defense seems to hold him back. I still see him getting only spot minutes when one of our top 10 is out.

Kuminga is a role player and his lack of shooting is going to be problematic at times. Yes, he will be starting, but he's not going to be one of our main offensive engines like KAT or Randle were when playing next to Rudy.

And don't forget that the 5th highest paid player on the team is Ayo. I expect us to go with a lot of three or four-guard lineups deep in halves. There could be a lot of games where Kuminga is on the bench during crunch-time.

[Monster]

Like the signing, especially at that price. JK brings top level athleticism. Watching video on him the last couple of days he clearly plays like he's bigger than he is. Impressive strength with next level athleticism. He'll start in the front court, but think he will get a lot of run with the 2nd unit being the primary scorer.

Surely we won't have to waive and stretch Josh Green. He's a solid rotation player on an expiring contract. We also have a 2031 2nd RP we can attach if need be.

Josh Green and that pick to CHI for Jalen Smith would be perfect. Not sure if CHI would though.

I agree signing Kuminga at that price was an excellent move. The point of adding a starting caliber PF to the roster was to add someone better than Trey Lyles with the size and strength of a PF. Kuminga is a beast. He’s not huge but he has PF size. His 8’11 standing reach matches the average 8’11.5 reach of NBA PFs. He weighed 220 lbs at the draft combine, but like every NBA player giving from age 19 to 24, he’s likely put on about 10 pounds. So I’m guessing he’s around 230 right now, which matches the average NBA PF weight of 233. Watching his highlights you can see that he is really, really strong. And he’s obviously an elite athlete.

Fingers crossed that Kuminga has had an epiphany after a somber period of self-reflection. I’d be surprised if TC and Finch did not make it clear to Kuminga that he needs to defend, rebound and accept a limited offensive role as a fast-break finisher, half-court cutter and offensive rebounder, and that he needs to focus on becoming an elite on-ball defender while tapping into his already impressive defensive rebounding percentage in previous seasons.

What I do like about Kuminga is he has some PF size and I think he compliments Lyles and the other way around. Lyles isn't gonna wow you but he has the size of a center and while mobile for that size he isn't a guy that's gonna be chasing wing guys around. Kuminga in theory is a guy that can guard all over the floor and a variety of players. I'm not sure I'm seeing the play strength others are seeing from the videos but he isn't a twig. He seems like a guy that might benefit from being able to just be aggressive on D more often. I think the Wolves are gonna be all over the place more like they did when they flew around that last year with Towns only they have Gobert and Joan behind them.

Also now Lyles could be matched up with Joan giving the frontcourt some space and a vet presence.

[Monster]

I saw someone on Twitter with this same basic question and Jon K had it had the fan question. On the latest podcast but it was basically wondering what kind of role TSJ will have now that Kuminga is here. Jon K said he thinks a bench role will give him more opportunity to have the ball in his hands off the bench than if he had maybe ended up being a starter.

The person on Twitter was concerned with Kuminga here was worried TSJ would get fewer minutes adding Kuminga. I think you have to look at the fact that Kuminga being here means Lyles plays a much more limited role than he would have if nobody else signed or whoever did played a few minutes. Lets say that Lyles and player X they signed instead of Kuminga accounts for Even 10 minutes a game. I think if he was here Josh Green was gonna play minutes. How many? Idk but I'd guess he would play at least 15 mpg. So that's 25 mpg between those 2-3 players and that's possibly a conservative amount. There is still plenty of ability for TSJ to get on the court and have a real regular role. Hopefully he stays healthy and seizes it. If that happens TSJ and Ayo off the bench is gonna be pretty exciting stuff.

[Q-is-here]

I saw someone on Twitter with this same basic question and Jon K had it had the fan question. On the latest podcast but it was basically wondering what kind of role TSJ will have now that Kuminga is here. Jon K said he thinks a bench role will give him more opportunity to have the ball in his hands off the bench than if he had maybe ended up being a starter.

The person on Twitter was concerned with Kuminga here was worried TSJ would get fewer minutes adding Kuminga. I think you have to look at the fact that Kuminga being here means Lyles plays a much more limited role than he would have if nobody else signed or whoever did played a few minutes. Lets say that Lyles and player X they signed instead of Kuminga accounts for Even 10 minutes a game. I think if he was here Josh Green was gonna play minutes. How many? Idk but I'd guess he would play at least 15 mpg. So that's 25 mpg between those 2-3 players and that's possibly a conservative amount. There is still plenty of ability for TSJ to get on the court and have a real regular role. Hopefully he stays healthy and seizes it. If that happens TSJ and Ayo off the bench is gonna be pretty exciting stuff.

I can very easily see Kuminga playing less than 30 MPG, as he's the least important player of the five starters (just like Green would have been if we had started him next to Jaden at forward). Also, Charlotte kept Ball's minutes to 28 MPG last season and he stayed healthy, so I wonder if we won't push that much beyond 30 MPG (?). Then there is Rudy who is aging and needs to probably start having his minutes cut back closer to 28-30 MPG assuming that Beringer can hold his own out there.

So overall I see Finch going 9 or 10 deep most nights with Ayo, Shannon, Beringer, Clark, and Lyles all in that mix. Lyles and Clark may be the guys that toggle back and forth a bit in terms of minutes depending on the opponent we're playing. If they are wing/guard heavy, than more Clark. If big-heavy, than Lyles.

[AussieWolf3]

The evolution of this team over the last few years is quite honestly fascinating on several levels, one of them being the shape of the rotation.

Two years ago was the famous, "we've got 8 starters" which funny enough has born out with NAW becoming a starter for ATL, Naz likely starting in Charlotte and Donte staring last year. That team's rotation was, to the chagrin of many, incredibly inflexible.

This last season there were 6 players with clear spots in the rotation and then I sharp drop off in talent and a confused rotation --- before the trade.

This year there is a clear top 5 and what looks to be a flatter distribution of talent after that. Here's what I mean:

The clear top 5
Ant
LaMelo
Jaden
Rudy
Ayo

The murky middle:
Kuminga
TJ
Joan
Clark
Lyles
Bones

The rest
Evans
Williams
Rocco

I think some (many?) will disagree with my assessment that there isn't a meaningful difference in talent or impact from Kuminga to Bones, but based on what we know right now Bones was more impactful for the Wolves last year than JK was for ATL.

It will be really interesting to see how the minutes fall. It's very likely that Kuminga is more of nominal starter and Ayo ends up with more minutes, perhaps significantly more, but that would be a departure from what we've seen from Finch.

From what I see Finch has a clear core of players and a decent toolbox of additional players around them, and it will be absolutely necessary for him to correctly deploy that toolbox to best augment and compliment the core.

[rapsuperstar31]

The evolution of this team over the last few years is quite honestly fascinating on several levels, one of them being the shape of the rotation.

Two years ago was the famous, "we've got 8 starters" which funny enough has born out with NAW becoming a starter for ATL, Naz likely starting in Charlotte and Donte staring last year. That team's rotation was, to the chagrin of many, incredibly inflexible.

This last season there were 6 players with clear spots in the rotation and then I sharp drop off in talent and a confused rotation --- before the trade.

This year there is a clear top 5 and what looks to be a flatter distribution of talent after that. Here's what I mean:

The clear top 5
Ant
LaMelo
Jaden
Rudy
Ayo

The murky middle:
Kuminga
TJ
Joan
Clark
Lyles
Bones

The rest
Evans
Williams
Rocco

I think some (many?) will disagree with my assessment that there isn't a meaningful difference in talent or impact from Kuminga to Bones, but based on what we know right now Bones was more impactful for the Wolves last year than JK was for ATL.

It will be really interesting to see how the minutes fall. It's very likely that Kuminga is more of nominal starter and Ayo ends up with more minutes, perhaps significantly more, but that would be a departure from what we've seen from Finch.

From what I see Finch has a clear core of players and a decent toolbox of additional players around them, and it will be absolutely necessary for him to correctly deploy that toolbox to best augment and compliment the core.

Bones was benched in the playoffs, Kuminga helped Atlanta win two games which is something no other team did in the playoffs against New York. Kuminga was a combined +13 in Atlanta's two 1 point victories.

[FNG]

The evolution of this team over the last few years is quite honestly fascinating on several levels, one of them being the shape of the rotation.

Two years ago was the famous, "we've got 8 starters" which funny enough has born out with NAW becoming a starter for ATL, Naz likely starting in Charlotte and Donte staring last year. That team's rotation was, to the chagrin of many, incredibly inflexible.

This last season there were 6 players with clear spots in the rotation and then I sharp drop off in talent and a confused rotation --- before the trade.

This year there is a clear top 5 and what looks to be a flatter distribution of talent after that. Here's what I mean:

The clear top 5
Ant
LaMelo
Jaden
Rudy
Ayo

The murky middle:
Kuminga
TJ
Joan
Clark
Lyles
Bones

The rest
Evans
Williams
Rocco

I think some (many?) will disagree with my assessment that there isn't a meaningful difference in talent or impact from Kuminga to Bones, but based on what we know right now Bones was more impactful for the Wolves last year than JK was for ATL.

It will be really interesting to see how the minutes fall. It's very likely that Kuminga is more of nominal starter and Ayo ends up with more minutes, perhaps significantly more, but that would be a departure from what we've seen from Finch.

From what I see Finch has a clear core of players and a decent toolbox of additional players around them, and it will be absolutely necessary for him to correctly deploy that toolbox to best augment and compliment the core.

Bones was benched in the playoffs, Kuminga helped Atlanta win two games which is something no other team did in the playoffs against New York. Kuminga was a combined +13 in Atlanta's two 1 point victories.

Yeah, I think Aussie pretty much nailed it with his three tiers, with the exception of JK who belongs in the top tier of 6. He's going to play every night, like the other 5, and Bones will likely just be a guy they throw in there if the offense isn't clicking to see if he can go on a heater. How the other 4 (TJ, Clark, Lyles and Joan) fare will have a lot to do with how successful we are this season. I think we have a very good top 6, and solid contributions from the rest could mean a very good season.

[AussieWolf3]

The evolution of this team over the last few years is quite honestly fascinating on several levels, one of them being the shape of the rotation.

Two years ago was the famous, "we've got 8 starters" which funny enough has born out with NAW becoming a starter for ATL, Naz likely starting in Charlotte and Donte staring last year. That team's rotation was, to the chagrin of many, incredibly inflexible.

This last season there were 6 players with clear spots in the rotation and then I sharp drop off in talent and a confused rotation --- before the trade.

This year there is a clear top 5 and what looks to be a flatter distribution of talent after that. Here's what I mean:

The clear top 5
Ant
LaMelo
Jaden
Rudy
Ayo

The murky middle:
Kuminga
TJ
Joan
Clark
Lyles
Bones

The rest
Evans
Williams
Rocco

I think some (many?) will disagree with my assessment that there isn't a meaningful difference in talent or impact from Kuminga to Bones, but based on what we know right now Bones was more impactful for the Wolves last year than JK was for ATL.

It will be really interesting to see how the minutes fall. It's very likely that Kuminga is more of nominal starter and Ayo ends up with more minutes, perhaps significantly more, but that would be a departure from what we've seen from Finch.

From what I see Finch has a clear core of players and a decent toolbox of additional players around them, and it will be absolutely necessary for him to correctly deploy that toolbox to best augment and compliment the core.

Bones was benched in the playoffs, Kuminga helped Atlanta win two games which is something no other team did in the playoffs against New York. Kuminga was a combined +13 in Atlanta's two 1 point victories.

Yeah, I think Aussie pretty much nailed it with his three tiers, with the exception of JK who belongs in the top tier of 6. He's going to play every night, like the other 5, and Bones will likely just be a guy they throw in there if the offense isn't clicking to see if he can go on a heater. How the other 4 (TJ, Clark, Lyles and Joan) fare will have a lot to do with how successful we are this season. I think we have a very good top 6, and solid contributions from the rest could mean a very good season.

I'm not sure how we can currently determine that JK is locked in a 6. At this point in his career he has been a negative impact player for all but 30 some games last year and even that depends on what metric you're using.

There is a very real possibility that by December of this year it is apparent that Shannon or even Joan is the 6th best players. Not saying likely, just that it's within a realistic set of circumstances. JK will no doubt have a role this year, there is no question about that, but it certainly possible that there a good degree of night to night fluctuation

[FNG]

Bones was benched in the playoffs, Kuminga helped Atlanta win two games which is something no other team did in the playoffs against New York. Kuminga was a combined +13 in Atlanta's two 1 point victories.

Yeah, I think Aussie pretty much nailed it with his three tiers, with the exception of JK who belongs in the top tier of 6. He's going to play every night, like the other 5, and Bones will likely just be a guy they throw in there if the offense isn't clicking to see if he can go on a heater. How the other 4 (TJ, Clark, Lyles and Joan) fare will have a lot to do with how successful we are this season. I think we have a very good top 6, and solid contributions from the rest could mean a very good season.

I'm not sure how we can currently determine that JK is locked in a 6. At this point in his career he has been a negative impact player for all but 30 some games last year and even that depends on what metric you're using.

There is a very real possibility that by December of this year it is apparent that Shannon or even Joan is the 6th best players. Not saying likely, just that it's within a realistic set of circumstances. JK will no doubt have a role this year, there is no question about that, but it certainly possible that there a good degree of night to night fluctuation

I agree that JK is a mystery. and I would have him 6th in the top tier. But since he has played meaningful playoff minutes (like the other 5 in his tier) and was a lottery pick, I can't see ranking him at the same level as 19-year-old Joan who just started playing basketball 6 years ago and has played little other than garbage time or Bones who struggles to stay in rotations. I'm high on Joan, but I can't raise him to JK's level based on one admittedly impressive summer league game. But like I said, if Joan can give us 15 good minutes behind Rudy this season, that is really going to help us.