Hypothetical Starting 5 / Rotation

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AussieWolf3
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Joined: Thu May 29, 2025 5:11 pm

Re: Hypothetical Starting 5 / Rotation

Post by AussieWolf3 »

Q-is-here wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2026 5:28 pm
AussieWolf3 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2026 11:45 am Here are the DPMs for the players in that group

Joan: +0.3
Bones. -0.1
Clark: -0.2
JK: -1.3
TJ: -1.8

*Trey's most recent season put him at -0.7*

Those bottom two are reeeeeeally bad numbers for players expected to play meaningful minutes.

DPM (or DARKO) has been documented by the nerds as the best and most predictive catch all metric that is publicly available.

You can take it all with a grain of salt but this is just another one of the metrics where Kuminga doesn't pass muster
Here is an alternative advanced stat that Dane Moore likes, Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus. I will just give the percentile since what matters is how players rate relative to everyone else:

Beringer: 1st percentile (i.e. one of the worst in the NBA....)
Bones: 68th percentile
Clark: 88th percentile
Kuminga: 68th percentile (based on all 36 games he plaed last year with both Golden State and Atlanta)
Shannon: 11th percentile
Thanks! But why just the defensive? Why not both or combined?

EPM seems like a good metric, but so much of it is paywalled, so I pass on it for the most part
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Q-is-here
Posts: 10158
Joined: Sat Jan 01, 2022 12:00 am

Re: Hypothetical Starting 5 / Rotation

Post by Q-is-here »

AussieWolf3 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2026 5:34 pm
Q-is-here wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2026 5:28 pm
AussieWolf3 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2026 11:45 am Here are the DPMs for the players in that group

Joan: +0.3
Bones. -0.1
Clark: -0.2
JK: -1.3
TJ: -1.8

*Trey's most recent season put him at -0.7*

Those bottom two are reeeeeeally bad numbers for players expected to play meaningful minutes.

DPM (or DARKO) has been documented by the nerds as the best and most predictive catch all metric that is publicly available.

You can take it all with a grain of salt but this is just another one of the metrics where Kuminga doesn't pass muster
Here is an alternative advanced stat that Dane Moore likes, Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus. I will just give the percentile since what matters is how players rate relative to everyone else:

Beringer: 1st percentile (i.e. one of the worst in the NBA....)
Bones: 68th percentile
Clark: 88th percentile
Kuminga: 68th percentile (based on all 36 games he plaed last year with both Golden State and Atlanta)
Shannon: 11th percentile
Thanks! But why just the defensive? Why not both or combined?

EPM seems like a good metric, but so much of it is paywalled, so I pass on it for the most part
Ah, I thought DPM was a defensive stat, but was mistaken. Here are where they are in overall EPM, offense and defense:

Beringer: 35th percentile
Bones: 77th percentile
Clark: 46th percentile
Kuminga: 42nd percentile
Shannon: 22nd percentile

Here are a few other current and recent Wolves for the sake of comparison in the same stat:

Ayo: 69th percentile
Ball: 97th percentile
Jaden: 78th percentile
Ant: 94th percentile
Rudy: 88th percentile
DDV: 86th percentile
----------------------------
Randle: 87th percentile
Naz: 68h percentile
NAW: 90th percentile
AussieWolf3
Posts: 1679
Joined: Thu May 29, 2025 5:11 pm

Re: Hypothetical Starting 5 / Rotation

Post by AussieWolf3 »

Q-is-here wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2026 7:34 pm
AussieWolf3 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2026 5:34 pm
Q-is-here wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2026 5:28 pm

Here is an alternative advanced stat that Dane Moore likes, Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus. I will just give the percentile since what matters is how players rate relative to everyone else:

Beringer: 1st percentile (i.e. one of the worst in the NBA....)
Bones: 68th percentile
Clark: 88th percentile
Kuminga: 68th percentile (based on all 36 games he plaed last year with both Golden State and Atlanta)
Shannon: 11th percentile
Thanks! But why just the defensive? Why not both or combined?

EPM seems like a good metric, but so much of it is paywalled, so I pass on it for the most part
Ah, I thought DPM was a defensive stat, but was mistaken. Here are where they are in overall EPM, offense and defense:

Beringer: 35th percentile
Bones: 77th percentile
Clark: 46th percentile
Kuminga: 42nd percentile
Shannon: 22nd percentile

Here are a few other current and recent Wolves for the sake of comparison in the same stat:

Ayo: 69th percentile
Ball: 97th percentile
Jaden: 78th percentile
Ant: 94th percentile
Rudy: 88th percentile
DDV: 86th percentile
----------------------------
Randle: 87th percentile
Naz: 68h percentile
NAW: 90th percentile
Thanks!
Interesting enough those map onto DPM pretty closely. Which makes sense because I'm pretty sure both use box score data as well as plus/minus.

DPM stands for Daily Plus Minus. Which is a pretty poor name to.be honest but basically it updates daily.

The coolest factor with DPM is that it's uses decay factors to add weight to recent performance and it's evidently has certain components in its formula to be predictive but I'm not math enough to understand all that.
AussieWolf3
Posts: 1679
Joined: Thu May 29, 2025 5:11 pm

Re: Hypothetical Starting 5 / Rotation

Post by AussieWolf3 »

Clark with an average 3 point percentage is such a impactful rotation player!
Really excited to see how that plays out and if that can be developed
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Q-is-here
Posts: 10158
Joined: Sat Jan 01, 2022 12:00 am

Re: Hypothetical Starting 5 / Rotation

Post by Q-is-here »

AussieWolf3 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2026 7:41 pm
Q-is-here wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2026 7:34 pm
AussieWolf3 wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2026 5:34 pm

Thanks! But why just the defensive? Why not both or combined?

EPM seems like a good metric, but so much of it is paywalled, so I pass on it for the most part
Ah, I thought DPM was a defensive stat, but was mistaken. Here are where they are in overall EPM, offense and defense:

Beringer: 35th percentile
Bones: 77th percentile
Clark: 46th percentile
Kuminga: 42nd percentile
Shannon: 22nd percentile

Here are a few other current and recent Wolves for the sake of comparison in the same stat:

Ayo: 69th percentile
Ball: 97th percentile
Jaden: 78th percentile
Ant: 94th percentile
Rudy: 88th percentile
DDV: 86th percentile
----------------------------
Randle: 87th percentile
Naz: 68h percentile
NAW: 90th percentile
Thanks!
Interesting enough those map onto DPM pretty closely. Which makes sense because I'm pretty sure both use box score data as well as plus/minus.

DPM stands for Daily Plus Minus. Which is a pretty poor name to.be honest but basically it updates daily.

The coolest factor with DPM is that it's uses decay factors to add weight to recent performance and it's evidently has certain components in its formula to be predictive but I'm not math enough to understand all that.
Here's the one that is a little frustrating....Josh Green was 52nd percentile last year in EPM, so ahead of Kuminga, Clark, and Shannon. In DARKO, he was a -.8 so ahead of Kuminga and Shannon, but not Clark. Mmmmm.
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