I agree with everything you say about PJ. Aussie and I have gone back and forth about Jaden's true size, but nobody will ever call PJ "Slim"...he had an NBA PF body even back at Kentucky! I read your comment about discounting PJ's down season last year, and I largely agree as long as we can determine he is totally healthy...sometimes a nagging injury can lead to a down year. I'm beginning to move closer to answering "yes" to Monster's question about whether he is the missing piece in terms of making us a contender...he just might be. I don't think we're the only team that may be targeting PJ both because they like him and they notice Dallas is flush with bigs. I see the Lakers appear to be quite interested.
I also saw your comment that you would give up Donte/Green in trade far easier than Ayo and am not on the same page. Perhaps you are disregarding the Ayo Mystery as just BS analytics, but I find it difficult to ignore. There's a reason the Bulls were willing to trade him for two non-rotation players. I like Ayo's game so much (and have since his Illinois days), I struggled to understand why he has consistently been the mirror opposite of Donte throughout his career in on/off stats when their raw stats are quite similar. I couldn't determine what the issue was when I watched his early games with us on TV, but I did in the three games I attended last spring in person: Donte is consistently both effective and disruptive on defense, while Ayo often seems to be in the wrong place on defense. It's not an effort issue like with Julius or Ant...he works hard out there...it's more confusion about where he is supposed to be in a team concept. After noticing this in person, I watched it closely in the playoffs where he really struggled on defense...it wasn't much of a surprise to me that opponents scored a disastrous 16.2 more points per 100 when he was on the court. Ayo is still young and may have been adjusting to new teammates on defense (although his defensive analytics were poor at Chicago too), so he could make a positive leap on defense like Donte has, but I'd rather take the more reliable defender now.
Of course there is the Achilles issue...when will Donte return, and will he be effective? The most recent recovery example is Tatum...he came back on March 6 and actually had his surgery 3 weeks later than Donte. Reports are that Donte's recovery has been good, and a Tatum schedule would have him back in mid February. Durant had a similar recovery time and didn't seem to lose any explosiveness when he returned. But every injury is different, so I agree there are no guarantees that Donte will come back as quickly as Tatum and Durant or will be the same player. That also is why he might not be as attractive a trade asset as Ayo.
Ayo would be a much more attractive/valuable trade asset than Donte for the same reasons we should keep Ayo over Donte if we have a choice to trade one or the other for a player we want. In reality, I don’t think we’re going to get a starting PF as good or better than PJ in exchange for Donte and Green and I doubt we could even get PJ although I think getting PJ for those two is somewhat realistic. The way this team is constructed, especially with Donte likely out the whole season, I wouldn’t even consider trading Ayo for a PF. And I’m not sure I’d consider it even if Donte were healthy. We have our three elite players in Ball, Ant and Jaden. We have our defensive anchor in Rudy at Center. And we have a critical 6th man in Ayo who allows us to maintain a high level of play at the guard positions, which are obviously the core positions around which this team is built. We need ball-handlers who can both shoot and facilitate. That was why TC traded for Ayo in the first place and gave him his current contract. It’s why TC traded for LaMello.
Donte is definitely a better defender than Ayo, but the gap narrowed when comparing the two as teammates with the Wolves last season. And Ayo’s defensive numbers were actually better than Donte’s in the playoffs last season. With his long arms, toughness, high IQ and intensity, it’s highly likely that Ayo’s defensive numbers will improves - especially playing with defenders like Rudy, Jaden and a motivated Ant. Offensively, Ayo and Donte are both very good but also different. Overall, Ayo’s offensive stats last season were significantly better than Donte’s.
It’s too easy to get lost in the statistical weeds. I think this team needs Ayo and is better with both than with one or the other assuming Donte comes back 100% - maybe by the playoffs but more likely next season. Since I don’t think we’re getting value for Donte in a trade because of his injury, it’s probably just an academic debate. However, if there’s a chance we can get a PF of PJ’s caliber for Green and Donte, I think we should pull the trigger. If we’re all to compete for a championship next season, we can’t afford to carry a player who can’t play if that player could be swapped for a player who can’t help us significantly at a position of need.
The thing is Lip it's not just about this season. In 12 months how will you feel about paying PJ Washington over 21 million? What if having him on the roster kept from trading or signing a different better player? Personally I think Dallas would at this point jump at the chance to add Green and get out from Washington's long term deal with all the players they have added this off-season.
Aldama
Drafted Morez Johnson
Risacher
Brought back Cisse matching the offer sheet
They just sighed Naji Marshall to a 3 year 52 million extension.
They still have both Lively and Gafford on the roster and even Caleb Martin.
Dallas is trying to win now so they probably don't need to unload Washington but it seems pretty clear they are looking for other options than keeping him around long term. It seems like they could use some more guard depth.
I think you’re right, Monster, that it’s not just about next season. If we look at the situation through a multi-year lens, then trading Green + Donte for PJ doesn’t seem like the right move. But if it’s strictly about next season and then figuring out the future next summer, then that deal seems like the right one to me because it would essentially be swapping Green for PJ who is the better of the two and plays a position of need. Hard to know what lens our front office is looking through. I agree that Dallas is very open to moving Washington. The recent extension they gave to Naji was yet another signal.
