Damian Lillard Prediction Thread

[Monster]

Dame Lillard last season:

32.2 ppg (career high)
7.3 ast
46.3% fg (career high)
37.1% 3fg


[Note: He's only played 87 games over the past two seasons. I don't know how many of those were for tanking purposes.]

It’s dangerous to judge a 33 year old player by his most recent season, especially if the player has 4 years left on his deal at a max salary that escalates to $63M when he’ll be 36. Players in their 30s often decline in steps, not a steady downward slope. Career average is a MUCH better guard of what to expect from a 33 year old.

I’m also trying to imagine how Lillard would fit with Ant. Lillard got his 32 point average last season taking over 20 shots per game - about the same as Steph Curry. Lillard has averaged 18.6 shots per game over his career. He’s a high volume scorer and a ball dominant PG. I just don’t see the fit with Ant. The fact that TC is even making the inquiry causes me to further question his judgment. If this team is all about Ant, which is essentially what TC said recently, then trading for Lillard doesn’t make sense. Neither his age nor his game fits well with Ant.

If TC didn’t at least call he isn’t doing his job. I also called Portland as the GM of my city league rec team. I figured I may as well since we don’t have limits on trading draft picks in our league. Another reason to call is see what else Portland is looking to do in a Lilliard trade. Maybe they move a player the wolves would like to acquire or Portland is like hey didn’t you like player X? We have a possible deal from a team involving that guy are you still interested?

The Wolves could use another high level perimeter scorer and shot creator to help them if they want to be true contenders. Idk if you remember that Lilliard played in the backcourt with CJ McCollum for years. I have no illusions that he Wolves will end up with Lilliard but the idea that he wouldn’t work here…I’m not sure is accurate. It could be argued he is exactly the type of player this team needs.

[Lipoli390]

Dame Lillard last season:

32.2 ppg (career high)
7.3 ast
46.3% fg (career high)
37.1% 3fg


[Note: He's only played 87 games over the past two seasons. I don't know how many of those were for tanking purposes.]

It’s dangerous to judge a 33 year old player by his most recent season, especially if the player has 4 years left on his deal at a max salary that escalates to $63M when he’ll be 36. Players in their 30s often decline in steps, not a steady downward slope. Career average is a MUCH better guard of what to expect from a 33 year old.

I’m also trying to imagine how Lillard would fit with Ant. Lillard got his 32 point average last season taking over 20 shots per game - about the same as Steph Curry. Lillard has averaged 18.6 shots per game over his career. He’s a high volume scorer and a ball dominant PG. I just don’t see the fit with Ant. The fact that TC is even making the inquiry causes me to further question his judgment. If this team is all about Ant, which is essentially what TC said recently, then trading for Lillard doesn’t make sense. Neither his age nor his game fits well with Ant.

If TC didn’t at least call he isn’t doing his job. I also called Portland as the GM of my city league rec team. I figured I may as well since we don’t have limits on trading draft picks in our league. Another reason to call is see what else Portland is looking to do in a Lilliard trade. Maybe they move a player the wolves would like to acquire or Portland is like hey didn’t you like player X? We have a possible deal from a team involving that guy are you still interested?

The Wolves could use another high level perimeter scorer and shot creator to help them if they want to be true contenders. Idk if you remember that Lilliard played in the backcourt with CJ McCollum for years. I have no illusions that he Wolves will end up with Lilliard but the idea that he wouldn’t work here…I’m not sure is accurate. It could be argued he is exactly the type of player this team needs.

Calling to see if the Wolves can fit as a third team that gets a a player and/or assets other than Lillard makes sense to me. But I get the sense the Wolves were inquiring about getting Lillard. Sundog already mentioned the McCollum analogy. I’ve already addressed that. McCollum was clearly #2 to Lillard while both Ant and Lillard are #1s. Then there’s a huge age differential. Yes, it could work. But the Wolves need to stop trying to pound square pegs into round holes. That’s how I viewed the Gobert deal and that’s how I view the idea of trading for Lillard. We can agree to disagree on this one, Monster. In any event, we agree that getting Lillard is unlikely.

[Q-is-here]

I dunno, a player like Dame comes available, you gotta make that call. I’d be pissed in Connelly didn’t. As to fit with Ant, that could end up being fine. I’m just concerned about too many moving parts around Ant and Jaden. But the team has to make another big move like this after next season anyway.

It’s a massive long shot anything happens with the Wolves and Blazers, so I’m not spending too much time thinking about it.

Minnesota is one of only several teams that have reportedly called about Lillard. It makes sense for Miami to reach out because of how Lillard would fit with their star, Butler, who is in his 30s and doesn’t need the ball to be at his best. It makes sense for the Sixers to inquire because Lillard fits with their star, Embiid, who’s a 29-year old big and not a a ball-dominant high-volume scorer. It makes no sense for the Wolves whose budding star is a 21 year old high-volume “ball in his hands crunch-time” scorer. At his best, Ant will be what Lillard is. It’s nonsensical for the Wolves to be thinking about acquiring Lillard. I agree it’s unlikely, but I’m troubled that our organization would give a moment of thought to acquiring Lillard. And based on what happened last summer, reports about Wolves front office inquiries into dumb deals can’t be easily dismissed as meaningless or highly improbable.

Not to nit-pick, but Butler absolutely does need the ball in his hands to be at his best. Did you not just watch their most recent playoff run?

[Q-is-here]

It’s dangerous to judge a 33 year old player by his most recent season, especially if the player has 4 years left on his deal at a max salary that escalates to $63M when he’ll be 36. Players in their 30s often decline in steps, not a steady downward slope. Career average is a MUCH better guard of what to expect from a 33 year old.

I’m also trying to imagine how Lillard would fit with Ant. Lillard got his 32 point average last season taking over 20 shots per game - about the same as Steph Curry. Lillard has averaged 18.6 shots per game over his career. He’s a high volume scorer and a ball dominant PG. I just don’t see the fit with Ant. The fact that TC is even making the inquiry causes me to further question his judgment. If this team is all about Ant, which is essentially what TC said recently, then trading for Lillard doesn’t make sense. Neither his age nor his game fits well with Ant.

If TC didn’t at least call he isn’t doing his job. I also called Portland as the GM of my city league rec team. I figured I may as well since we don’t have limits on trading draft picks in our league. Another reason to call is see what else Portland is looking to do in a Lilliard trade. Maybe they move a player the wolves would like to acquire or Portland is like hey didn’t you like player X? We have a possible deal from a team involving that guy are you still interested?

The Wolves could use another high level perimeter scorer and shot creator to help them if they want to be true contenders. Idk if you remember that Lilliard played in the backcourt with CJ McCollum for years. I have no illusions that he Wolves will end up with Lilliard but the idea that he wouldn’t work here…I’m not sure is accurate. It could be argued he is exactly the type of player this team needs.

Calling to see if the Wolves can fit as a third team that gets a a player and/or assets other than Lillard makes sense to me. But I get the sense the Wolves were inquiring about getting Lillard. Sundog already mentioned the McCollum analogy. I’ve already addressed that. McCollum was clearly #2 to Lillard while both Ant and Lillard are #1s. Then there’s a huge age differential. Yes, it could work. But the Wolves need to stop trying to pound square pegs into round holes. That’s how I viewed the Gobert deal and that’s how I view the idea of trading for Lillard. We can agree to disagree on this one, Monster. In any event, we agree that getting Lillard is unlikely.

I remember way back when folks critiqued the LeBron move to Miami: "How on earth can he and Wade make it work together?" Remember, Wade was in his prime. Well, they made it work. Both carried a usage rate of 30%+ and won two titles together. Same thing with Steph Curry and Kevin Durant.

The thinking would be the same as the Gobert trade I suppose....let's try to win now and get Ant/Jaden deep playoff experience early in their careers while also breaking the losing culture that has been part of Timberwolves basketball for so long. That's the premise at least, even though the Gobert foray has under-delivered so far.

Obviously Lillard and Ant are on completely different timelines, which may actually accelerate the torch-passing to Ant. I think Lillard would be thrilled to play with a guy like Ant.

[Coolbreeze44]

The one big issue I see with Ant and Lillard playing together is who is your go-to guy in the last minute? Common sense says Lillard had one it so many times, but I'm not sure Ant would be okay with that. I'd probably use them both as decoys and hit Jaden running to the rim.

[Lipoli390]

The one big issue I see with Ant and Lillard playing together is who is your go-to guy in the last minute? Common sense says Lillard had one it so many times, but I'm not sure Ant would be okay with that. I'd probably use them both as decoys and hit Jaden running to the rim.

Lol. Good one, Cool. The “go-to guy” point was one of the issues I mentioned. Ant’s maximum value to us is as our #1 ball-dominant go-to scorer. That clashes with Lillard in a way McCollum didn’t. Moreover, at age 21, the Wolves need to be careful about doing anything to impede his development along those lines. Further, the Wolves need to avoid constant in-and-out changes in the core around Ant. One of the biggest failure of the Wolves organization with KG and KAT was the failure to provide a stable core around those two.

The Wolves first paired KG with Marbury and it was working well but they traded him two years later because he wanted out. They then paired KG with Billups, but gave up on Billups too soon in favor of the older Terrell Brandon. The list goes on in the KG era.

The Wolves first paired KAT with Wiggins and LaVine. But they then traded LaVine and brought in Jimmy Butler. The next year Jimmy left. They then traded Wiggins and went with DLO and the dynamic young duo of Edwards and Jaden, which led to 46 wins in the dynamic duo’s second season. Then they traded three rotation players (two of them starters) from the 46-win team for Rudy Gobert.

The vast majority of title contenders - especially those that remain contenders for multiple seasons - assemble a core of players similar in age and keep them together — e.g., Curry/Thompson/Green, Jokic/Murray/Porter Jr., Tatum/Brown/Smart, Giannis/Middleton/Jrue Holiday. Note the similarity in age among each of these trios. Jrue Holiday was added later and has been with the other two now for only three seasons, but he’s still only 32 year old at the end of that three-year stretch, which is only four years older than Giannis. Otherwise, all these trios were kept together and developed together leading up to and during the prime years of their respective careers. The Wolves now have the opportunity to do the same with Ant and Jaden. They set the franchise back trading for a guy 10 years older than Ant and Jaden last year. They dare not do something dumb like that again and squander the opportunity they have.

KAT at age 27 could conceivably fit with Ant and Jaden as they develop over the next few seasons. He’s been with both for a number of years and those three had success two years ago. So TC will have to decide whether KAT is the right #2 or 3 with Ant and Jaden. If not, then the key will be trading KAT for someone comparable in age to Ant and Jaden who can develop with them and become the #2 or 3 in a championship trio. Lillard doesn’t fit that mold and obviously neither does Rudy.

[KG4Ever]

I see the pros and cons of KAT for Lillard straight up, and can understand why some prefer Damian, yet I would choose KAT for various reasons that I've outlined before. However, most trade proposals want KAT and more assets and/or taking on Nurkic's bad contract. This is an easy no for me. I didn't mention it before, but I think Lillard would also devalue Ant's value and development. I think this roster is fairly well balanced and Lillard for KAT may upset that balance and cause Ant to defer when he should become the team's alpha. I also compare the 5 year 4 month age difference between KAT and Lillard in that if the Lillard experiment goes bust over the next 4 years, there is no longer any value to tap there. However with KAT in 4 years, he'll be younger than Lillard is now and perhaps could still get us a nice trade package if we want to move on from him. With KAT or with Lillard, I think our title chances are roughly the same. It will ultimately depend on how big a leap Ant and Jaden can make, how healthy Rudy and KAT (or Lillard) are and how well the rest of the team fits with our big stars.

[Monster]

I get not going after Lilliard because he is older or whatever but the idea that Edwards can’t play next to a HOF guard makes no sense to me. If that’s the case we are screwed because Edwards ain’t that guy and might as well go on with our lives and start watching Pickleball and get ourselves some more of Dave Benz.

At the ages they are it’s a pretty big difference but something to consider Lilliard is less than 3 years younger than Conley. It’s also worth remembering that for a couple seasons in Memphis Conley was a 20ppg scorer. IF……..for some reason Conley is able to beat Father Time even for this season the Wolves could already be a contender right now…this season with the guys they have. Conley can be a really good player and I think we saw that towards the end of the season in the playoffs.

I’m not all in on Mike Conley playing till he is 40 (or even 38!) or anything (FNG might be!) but maybe there is some hope he can be something more significant than just a bridge player. Chris Paul is still a pretty good player and he recently turned 38. I don’t think any of these 3 guards really rely on their wild athleticism anymore.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I get not going after Lilliard because he is older or whatever but the idea that Edwards can’t play next to a HOF guard makes no sense to me. If that’s the case we are screwed because Edwards ain’t that guy and might as well go on with our lives and start watching Pickleball and get ourselves some more of Dave Benz.

At the ages they are it’s a pretty big difference but something to consider Lilliard is less than 3 years younger than Conley. It’s also worth remembering that for a couple seasons in Memphis Conley was a 20ppg scorer. IF……..for some reason Conley is able to beat Father Time even for this season the Wolves could already be a contender right now…this season with the guys they have. Conley can be a really good player and I think we saw that towards the end of the season in the playoffs.

I’m not all in on Mike Conley playing till he is 40 (or even 38!) or anything (FNG might be!) but maybe there is some hope he can be something more significant than just a bridge player. Chris Paul is still a pretty good player and he recently turned 38. I don’t think any of these 3 guards really rely on their wild athleticism anymore.

It's a bit of a reach to lump Mike Conley in with Chris Paul or Dame Lillard.

Whether we're talking about them in their primes, as they've aged, or even as they near the end of their careers.

For what it's worth, Chris Paul is coming off what statistically would be one of the better seasons in Mike Conley's career. The hopeful contending team he was in didn't think he was even worth it anymore.

There are two ways to look at Mike Conley:
- Good enough to start for a play-in team.
- Not good enough to start for a serious contender.

I guess it's all about expectations.

[Crazysauce]

This thread is wildin. How do we choose who takes the last shot between Ant and Dame? Really? My question is how do they defend both Dame and Ant at the same time. Good luck.

Kat and moore for dame works according to trade machine. Dame has that dog in him that Kat doesn't. Guys that don't have it do not end up champions. There is a reason that the Heat are able to win. I would do this trade. Kat is very overrated. An added tidbit is the espn trade machine has us plus 15 wins in this deal.