Dallas vs Minnesota analysis

[Q-is-here]

We'll have to see how the Wolves do their defense, but I don't agree with the consensus here that Jaden will be on Luka. I get it, because Jaden has most often guarded the other team's PG if he was one of their best scorers. That's why most here thought he would be on Murray. I liked Ant on Jamal though before the series started. I argued that both of them might be effective on Murray, but Jaden's height would be a better matchup on MPJ. I didn't like Ant giving up 6 inches in that matchup. Finchie ultimately saw it the same way, and both of our defenders were mostly successful in their assignments as both Murray in MPJ underperformed.

In this one, I think bulk rather than length is the best way to handle Luka, and Ant is the better answer. I think both Ant and Jaden could make life difficult for Kyrie, but my choice is Jaden only because I want our stronger player on Luka (stronger in terms of size). We'll see what Finchie decides, but that's what I would do.

I think it will be a committee approach with Jaden, Ant, and Kyle all taking turns on him. I guess the real question is whose guarding him with 6 minutes left in the 4th? That I won't venture a guess.

[Q-is-here]

I like the defensive primary matchups described.

Rudy on Gafford
KAT on Washington
Jaden on Kyrie
Ant on Luka
Conley on Jones Jr.

I think Rudy and KAT can switch out and I don't actually worry about KAT switching onto Luka as long as he keeps his hands to himself.

Luka will get Jaden into foul trouble and I don't see the officials eliminating ANT from games because of Luka's foul hunting.

I can also foresee NAZ/Kyle taking some Luka just to beat him down a little.

I was thinking Anderson guarded Luka well later in an couple games in the regular season. He has size and girth and Luka isn't wildly quick so it's a good matchup. That's the thing about the Wolves they have so many guys that can guard a variety of players.

I like the idea of taking away everyone else and basically making Luka beat you himself.

Yeah, we've shown that we can withstand some pretty massive output from great players over the Phoenix and Denver series. Luka can make some crazy-tough shots, but he also misses his fair share and turns it over quite a bit. I do not put him on the same level as Jokic or prime Steph Curry when it comes to the problems he causes on offense. He's a half-tier below those guys. Making him work his ass off to score 34 PPG while turning the faucet off on everyone else is a solid strategy.

[Wolvesfan21]

I wouldn't mind seeing some Naz on Luka at times. He's got good length and more strength then Jaden and NAW. Luka likes to bully guys down some. Plus Naz's defense has really taken a leap forward in the playoffs.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

We've talked a bit about how we will/should defend them, and we should keep talking about that. Regardless of who's on Luka and Kyrie, I'm still interested in what we do with Rudy and KAT defensively. Is it a foregone conclusion that we put Rudy on Gafford/Lively? I think for the most part yes, but if we are going to show hard at the level, I will be curious to see if they put KAT onto the big so Rudy can still be the help defender. I don't think so. That seems crazy. But it could be a curveball to throw at them.

But let's talk about Dallas' defense a bit.

They were a GREAT defense down the stretch of the season. Our half-court offense is a question mark. How do you think Dallas is going to defend us, and what do you think we need to do offensively to make sure we are still putting points on the board?

[Q-is-here]

We've talked a bit about how we will/should defend them, and we should keep talking about that. Regardless of who's on Luka and Kyrie, I'm still interested in what we do with Rudy and KAT defensively. Is it a foregone conclusion that we put Rudy on Gafford/Lively? I think for the most part yes, but if we are going to show hard at the level, I will be curious to see if they put KAT onto the big so Rudy can still be the help defender. I don't think so. That seems crazy. But it could be a curveball to throw at them.

But let's talk about Dallas' defense a bit.

They were a GREAT defense down the stretch of the season. Our half-court offense is a question mark. How do you think Dallas is going to defend us, and what do you think we need to do offensively to make sure we are still putting points on the board?

Drew, Dallas doesn't have an Aaron Gordon or Josh Giddy type wing that Gobert could be assigned to on defense and then roam off of, so I think he matches straight up with Gafford and Lively. Those are actually good matchups for him because neither will draw him out of the paint and both do all their damage as lob threats.

As for the offense, I think this series is going to mostly be a defensive grind. However, with Kleber out of action, Dallas only plays one big at a time, alternating Gafford and Lively at Center. In the same way Dallas exploited OKC's size disadvantage, I think the Rudy/KAT/Naz trio needs to really punish Dallas on the glass and in the post. Gafford is a damn good interior defender, but he's just one guy. We can send waves of size at them.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I predict that 41.7% of posts will be about the sheer amount of foul hunting (and incessant, nonstop for 48 minutes whining) from Luka Doncic.

Get ready folks. This could be a Kyle Anderson series. Obviously, fouls are a big part of the Timberwolves. There will be games where key guys are in foul trouble. And Kyle Anderson is such a versatile dude off the bench, he can guard the bouncy bigs or the otherworldly Doncic. At least theoretically.

I assume Dallas continues with the "send three guys at Edwards" strategy that has slowed him down at times. Otherwise, I don't see anyone on Dallas who can consistently stop him at the point of attack.

PJ Washington was an above-average three-point shooter (37.5%) his first three seasons. He's been below average the past two seasons (34.8% and 32%). He shot 47% on huge volume (8+ per game) vs. OKC. I'm going with the larger sample size here. The Wolves can't treat him like Tony Allen... but they shouldn't be overly concerned either. They can be even less concerned with Derrick Jones Jr.

Reduced minutes or not... Tim Hardaway Jr. will have a moment in this series.

Since the trade deadline... the Lively/Gafford combo is averaging about 20 ppg / 14 reb / 3.5 blk on 75% shooting in 44 minutes per game. The new combo is obviously a big part of the Dallas push late in the season. We will see them dunk. A lot.

After a bunch of blowouts... I think we're about to see a bunch of close games.

[Wolvesfan21]

I predict that 41.7% of posts will be about the sheer amount of foul hunting (and incessant, nonstop for 48 minutes whining) from Luka Doncic.

Get ready folks. This could be a Kyle Anderson series. Obviously, fouls are a big part of the Timberwolves. There will be games where key guys are in foul trouble. And Kyle Anderson is such a versatile dude off the bench, he can guard the bouncy bigs or the otherworldly Doncic. At least theoretically.

I assume Dallas continues with the "send three guys at Edwards" strategy that has slowed him down at times. Otherwise, I don't see anyone on Dallas who can consistently stop him at the point of attack.

PJ Washington was an above-average three-point shooter (37.5%) his first three seasons. He's been below average the past two seasons (34.8% and 32%). He shot 47% on huge volume (8+ per game) vs. OKC. I'm going with the larger sample size here. The Wolves can't treat him like Tony Allen... but they shouldn't be overly concerned either. They can be even less concerned with Derrick Jones Jr.

Reduced minutes or not... Tim Hardaway Jr. will have a moment in this series.

Since the trade deadline... the Lively/Gafford combo is averaging about 20 ppg / 14 reb / 3.5 blk on 75% shooting in 44 minutes per game. The new combo is obviously a big part of the Dallas push late in the season. We will see them dunk. A lot.

After a bunch of blowouts... I think we're about to see a bunch of close games.

Here is what I would like to see. Only one of Kyle or Rudy on the floor at all times though. You bring in Kyle when you have Naz and KAT on the floor for spacing. Our offense gets way to slow and clunky with two non shooters out there. Both are great to have out there, but only one at a time please Finchie.

[BloopOracle]

Mavs start a single player above 6'7 and he happens to be a string bean, our 3 big men need to bully the shit out of them

[FNG]

Mavs start a single player above 6'7 and he happens to be a string bean, our 3 big men need to bully the shit out of them

We are much taller than them, but they outrebounded OkC in every game except the first one in the last series.

[FNG]

The on/off playoff stats per 100 possessions for the Wolves and Dallas tell a similar story...dominance by the starters, and poor performance by the reserves. I still like our bench much better, but they have struggled in the playoffs so far:

Wolves:
Ant: 33.9
Rudy: 28.8
Jaden 19.1
Mike 18.6
KAT (7.3)
Naz (14.3)
NAW (25.2)
Slomo (31.1)

Dallas:
Kyrie 30.5
Luka 29.6
Lively 18.9
PJ 14.2
Jones 9.2
Green (10.6)
Gafford (22.4)
Hardaway (25)


Not too many surprises here. Jaden's numbers are a pleasant surprise, as he was a team-worst -6.1 during the regular season. But we all know how he has elevated his game this post-season, so it's really not a surprise at all. KAT's on/off is punished by almost always being on the court when Joker and Durant were out there. NAW has worked his butt off on defense, but has shot the ball poorly and had some careless turnovers- we need more from him in the next series. SloMo didn't have many minutes, but seemed ineffective when he was out there- I think we will see more of him in the Dallas series, and I think he will step up. Then there's Naz. Ant almost always has the stat sheet in front of him in post-game conferences, and he is quick to point out a very good on/off number (we love Ant's tendency to praise his teammates). But when he noticed Naz's -5 in Game 7, he dismissed it by saying on/off means nothing...this from a guy who quotes it more than anyone on the team other than possibly Finchie! But I think the rest of us know the story. While Naz has shown some improvement on defense and even had some good moments against Joker, he still is far behind the rest of the roster on defense. And when he shoots 31% and 32% from downtown like he did in the first two rounds, it's inevitable that we are going to lose the Naz minutes. He had the best on/off year of his career this season, but it was still slightly negative...and he had to shoot 41.2% on 3's to get there. We need Naz to progress to his 3-point mean in the next series, or else we are going to lose his minutes again.

Again, very few surprises on the Dallas side- their 2 stars are critical to their success, and they struggle when they're off the court. Unlike the Wolves though, the Dallas bench was terrible in on/off during the regular season too...similar to Denver, they're just not very good. Gafford and Lively split the center minutes almost equally, and their mirror image results surprised me. I didn't watch enough of the series to see what was up with Gafford, but the delta between him and Lively is dramatic. The other surprising thing for me is how Dante Exum has dropped out of the Dallas rotation. He averaged 20 MPG during the regular season and was quite effective at times, but his 8 MPG in the playoffs have been a disaster.