Dallas vs Minnesota analysis

[Coolbreeze44]

I don't want to jinx anything for our side, but the schedule format switching to every other day could be an advantage for us. Luka has been banged up during these playoffs, and we have seen how Kyrie is prone to injury as well. I think the potential for one of them to miss time is significant, and if nothing else they are sure to wear down a bit over the course of the series. Luka because he's fat, and Kyrie because he's 32. Dallas better get some good play from their bench or it's going to be a short series.

[Monster]

Mavs start a single player above 6'7 and he happens to be a string bean, our 3 big men need to bully the shit out of them

We are much taller than them, but they outrebounded OkC in every game except the first one in the last series.

I'll point out that OKC basically only played 2 guys 6'9" or taller in that series. It probably shouldn't be surprising to learn that they were 27th overall in rebounding in the regular season. Chet their tallest player averaged just under 8 rebounds a game in the regular season and in the Dallas series he managed to rip down 6.2 rebounds a game. Lol

[Q-is-here]

The on/off playoff stats per 100 possessions for the Wolves and Dallas tell a similar story...dominance by the starters, and poor performance by the reserves. I still like our bench much better, but they have struggled in the playoffs so far:

Wolves:
Ant: 33.9
Rudy: 28.8
Jaden 19.1
Mike 18.6
KAT (7.3)
Naz (14.3)
NAW (25.2)
Slomo (31.1)

Dallas:
Kyrie 30.5
Luka 29.6
Lively 18.9
PJ 14.2
Jones 9.2
Green (10.6)
Gafford (22.4)
Hardaway (25)


Not too many surprises here. Jaden's numbers are a pleasant surprise, as he was a team-worst -6.1 during the regular season. But we all know how he has elevated his game this post-season, so it's really not a surprise at all. KAT's on/off is punished by almost always being on the court when Joker and Durant were out there. NAW has worked his butt off on defense, but has shot the ball poorly and had some careless turnovers- we need more from him in the next series. SloMo didn't have many minutes, but seemed ineffective when he was out there- I think we will see more of him in the Dallas series, and I think he will step up. Then there's Naz. Ant almost always has the stat sheet in front of him in post-game conferences, and he is quick to point out a very good on/off number (we love Ant's tendency to praise his teammates). But when he noticed Naz's -5 in Game 7, he dismissed it by saying on/off means nothing...this from a guy who quotes it more than anyone on the team other than possibly Finchie! But I think the rest of us know the story. While Naz has shown some improvement on defense and even had some good moments against Joker, he still is far behind the rest of the roster on defense. And when he shoots 31% and 32% from downtown like he did in the first two rounds, it's inevitable that we are going to lose the Naz minutes. He had the best on/off year of his career this season, but it was still slightly negative...and he had to shoot 41.2% on 3's to get there. We need Naz to progress to his 3-point mean in the next series, or else we are going to lose his minutes again.

Again, very few surprises on the Dallas side- their 2 stars are critical to their success, and they struggle when they're off the court. Unlike the Wolves though, the Dallas bench was terrible in on/off during the regular season too...similar to Denver, they're just not very good. Gafford and Lively split the center minutes almost equally, and their mirror image results surprised me. I didn't watch enough of the series to see what was up with Gafford, but the delta between him and Lively is dramatic. The other surprising thing for me is how Dante Exum has dropped out of the Dallas rotation. He averaged 20 MPG during the regular season and was quite effective at times, but his 8 MPG in the playoffs have been a disaster.

Lively is a quite a story. He's a freakin' 20-year old rookie and in the top 7 of the Dallas rotation*.

Lively and Gafford certainly provide more rim protection than Nurkic or Jokic. On the other hand, Dallas will likely never go full small ball on us and neither are outside threats, so I do think it plays to our strength by allowing us to keep our bigs in the paint.

*Of all the great things Tim Connelly has done so far, he's missed on all his draft picks. None of those guys are even close to being trustworthy in a playoff game.

[FNG]

We have a separate prediction thread, but let's use this one to analyze how we think the teams will approach each other. Once again we are facing a team with two true superstars and a supporting cast. I think the Wolves took three out of 4 this season, but if I'm not mistaken, we lost the only game in which both Luka and Kyrie played. I'm not sure the regular season tells us much about how this series will go.

First and foremost, we have to keep Luka and Kyrie from going off. I'm not sure how we are going to defend them, but I suspect we will start with Jaden and Ant. I'm concerned that Luka might overpower Jaden, so I think I would go with this:

Rudy on Gafford
KAT on Washington
Jaden on Kyrie
Ant on Luka
Conley on Jones Jr.

Conley gives up 6 inches to Jones, but I don't think we have to worry too much about a guy who only averaged 8.6 PPG. I think Luka won't be able to bully Ant, and I think Jaden's quickness and length would bother Kyrie. What do others think?

I frankly don't know enough about the Dallas defense to know how they are going to line up against us. I'm looking for some input here.

I'm a Finchie fan, but I've been disappointed with him during this series. The defensive lineup I suggested above was the better call than the way he coached in Games 1-3 (Jaden/Luka, Ant/Kyrie), and he finally came out the right way in Game 4...with a lot of Kyle sprinkled in on Luka. For the first time in this series, we looked like the better defensive team. Terrific defensive effort by Jaden and Ant in this game. Let's keep it up!

[Q-is-here]

We have a separate prediction thread, but let's use this one to analyze how we think the teams will approach each other. Once again we are facing a team with two true superstars and a supporting cast. I think the Wolves took three out of 4 this season, but if I'm not mistaken, we lost the only game in which both Luka and Kyrie played. I'm not sure the regular season tells us much about how this series will go.

First and foremost, we have to keep Luka and Kyrie from going off. I'm not sure how we are going to defend them, but I suspect we will start with Jaden and Ant. I'm concerned that Luka might overpower Jaden, so I think I would go with this:

Rudy on Gafford
KAT on Washington
Jaden on Kyrie
Ant on Luka
Conley on Jones Jr.

Conley gives up 6 inches to Jones, but I don't think we have to worry too much about a guy who only averaged 8.6 PPG. I think Luka won't be able to bully Ant, and I think Jaden's quickness and length would bother Kyrie. What do others think?

I frankly don't know enough about the Dallas defense to know how they are going to line up against us. I'm looking for some input here.

I'm a Finchie fan, but I've been disappointed with him during this series. The defensive lineup I suggested above was the better call than the way he coached in Games 1-3 (Jaden/Luka, Ant/Kyrie), and he finally came out the right way in Game 4...with a lot of Kyle sprinkled in on Luka. For the first time in this series, we looked like the better defensive team. Terrific defensive effort by Jaden and Ant in this game. Let's keep it up!

If I'm not mistaken, Ant did start the series checking Luka and it did not go well.

May be they are starting to figure things out. One thing I love about Ant is he does absorb things like a sponge and it felt like he was a bit smarter about navigating around screens - when to go over and when to go under.

[Wolvesfan21]

The on/off playoff stats per 100 possessions for the Wolves and Dallas tell a similar story...dominance by the starters, and poor performance by the reserves. I still like our bench much better, but they have struggled in the playoffs so far:

Wolves:
Ant: 33.9
Rudy: 28.8
Jaden 19.1
Mike 18.6
KAT (7.3)
Naz (14.3)
NAW (25.2)
Slomo (31.1)

Dallas:
Kyrie 30.5
Luka 29.6
Lively 18.9
PJ 14.2
Jones 9.2
Green (10.6)
Gafford (22.4)
Hardaway (25)


Not too many surprises here. Jaden's numbers are a pleasant surprise, as he was a team-worst -6.1 during the regular season. But we all know how he has elevated his game this post-season, so it's really not a surprise at all. KAT's on/off is punished by almost always being on the court when Joker and Durant were out there. NAW has worked his butt off on defense, but has shot the ball poorly and had some careless turnovers- we need more from him in the next series. SloMo didn't have many minutes, but seemed ineffective when he was out there- I think we will see more of him in the Dallas series, and I think he will step up. Then there's Naz. Ant almost always has the stat sheet in front of him in post-game conferences, and he is quick to point out a very good on/off number (we love Ant's tendency to praise his teammates). But when he noticed Naz's -5 in Game 7, he dismissed it by saying on/off means nothing...this from a guy who quotes it more than anyone on the team other than possibly Finchie! But I think the rest of us know the story. While Naz has shown some improvement on defense and even had some good moments against Joker, he still is far behind the rest of the roster on defense. And when he shoots 31% and 32% from downtown like he did in the first two rounds, it's inevitable that we are going to lose the Naz minutes. He had the best on/off year of his career this season, but it was still slightly negative...and he had to shoot 41.2% on 3's to get there. We need Naz to progress to his 3-point mean in the next series, or else we are going to lose his minutes again.

Again, very few surprises on the Dallas side- their 2 stars are critical to their success, and they struggle when they're off the court. Unlike the Wolves though, the Dallas bench was terrible in on/off during the regular season too...similar to Denver, they're just not very good. Gafford and Lively split the center minutes almost equally, and their mirror image results surprised me. I didn't watch enough of the series to see what was up with Gafford, but the delta between him and Lively is dramatic. The other surprising thing for me is how Dante Exum has dropped out of the Dallas rotation. He averaged 20 MPG during the regular season and was quite effective at times, but his 8 MPG in the playoffs have been a disaster.

Lively is a quite a story. He's a freakin' 20-year old rookie and in the top 7 of the Dallas rotation*.

Lively and Gafford certainly provide more rim protection than Nurkic or Jokic. On the other hand, Dallas will likely never go full small ball on us and neither are outside threats, so I do think it plays to our strength by allowing us to keep our bigs in the paint.

*Of all the great things Tim Connelly has done so far, he's missed on all his draft picks. None of those guys are even close to being trustworthy in a playoff game.

As far as the draft picks. Has any guy Tim could have drafted been even a decent role player yet? Later picks are usually busts / crappy role players. It's not like he passed on Steph Curry.

[BloopOracle]

We fared well with very little blitzing last night, makes me hopeful that Lively's return won't be quite as impactful

[Q-is-here]

The on/off playoff stats per 100 possessions for the Wolves and Dallas tell a similar story...dominance by the starters, and poor performance by the reserves. I still like our bench much better, but they have struggled in the playoffs so far:

Wolves:
Ant: 33.9
Rudy: 28.8
Jaden 19.1
Mike 18.6
KAT (7.3)
Naz (14.3)
NAW (25.2)
Slomo (31.1)

Dallas:
Kyrie 30.5
Luka 29.6
Lively 18.9
PJ 14.2
Jones 9.2
Green (10.6)
Gafford (22.4)
Hardaway (25)


Not too many surprises here. Jaden's numbers are a pleasant surprise, as he was a team-worst -6.1 during the regular season. But we all know how he has elevated his game this post-season, so it's really not a surprise at all. KAT's on/off is punished by almost always being on the court when Joker and Durant were out there. NAW has worked his butt off on defense, but has shot the ball poorly and had some careless turnovers- we need more from him in the next series. SloMo didn't have many minutes, but seemed ineffective when he was out there- I think we will see more of him in the Dallas series, and I think he will step up. Then there's Naz. Ant almost always has the stat sheet in front of him in post-game conferences, and he is quick to point out a very good on/off number (we love Ant's tendency to praise his teammates). But when he noticed Naz's -5 in Game 7, he dismissed it by saying on/off means nothing...this from a guy who quotes it more than anyone on the team other than possibly Finchie! But I think the rest of us know the story. While Naz has shown some improvement on defense and even had some good moments against Joker, he still is far behind the rest of the roster on defense. And when he shoots 31% and 32% from downtown like he did in the first two rounds, it's inevitable that we are going to lose the Naz minutes. He had the best on/off year of his career this season, but it was still slightly negative...and he had to shoot 41.2% on 3's to get there. We need Naz to progress to his 3-point mean in the next series, or else we are going to lose his minutes again.

Again, very few surprises on the Dallas side- their 2 stars are critical to their success, and they struggle when they're off the court. Unlike the Wolves though, the Dallas bench was terrible in on/off during the regular season too...similar to Denver, they're just not very good. Gafford and Lively split the center minutes almost equally, and their mirror image results surprised me. I didn't watch enough of the series to see what was up with Gafford, but the delta between him and Lively is dramatic. The other surprising thing for me is how Dante Exum has dropped out of the Dallas rotation. He averaged 20 MPG during the regular season and was quite effective at times, but his 8 MPG in the playoffs have been a disaster.

Lively is a quite a story. He's a freakin' 20-year old rookie and in the top 7 of the Dallas rotation*.

Lively and Gafford certainly provide more rim protection than Nurkic or Jokic. On the other hand, Dallas will likely never go full small ball on us and neither are outside threats, so I do think it plays to our strength by allowing us to keep our bigs in the paint.

*Of all the great things Tim Connelly has done so far, he's missed on all his draft picks. None of those guys are even close to being trustworthy in a playoff game.

As far as the draft picks. Has any guy Tim could have drafted been even a decent role player yet? Later picks are usually busts / crappy role players. It's not like he passed on Steph Curry.

Yes, in 2022 guys like Andrew Nembhard, Jaylin Williams, and Jaden Hardy (who just torched us for a brief stint last night) were all picked after Moore, Jr. In this last draft, GG Jackson II was picked after Leonard Miller.

I would never expect Connelly to hit on every one of his later picks, but it's not unreasonable to expect that one of those three picks could have produced a useful rotation player by now. None of them could even crack the top 10 of our lineup, much less the playoff rotation.

[Wolvesfan21]

Lively is a quite a story. He's a freakin' 20-year old rookie and in the top 7 of the Dallas rotation*.

Lively and Gafford certainly provide more rim protection than Nurkic or Jokic. On the other hand, Dallas will likely never go full small ball on us and neither are outside threats, so I do think it plays to our strength by allowing us to keep our bigs in the paint.

*Of all the great things Tim Connelly has done so far, he's missed on all his draft picks. None of those guys are even close to being trustworthy in a playoff game.

As far as the draft picks. Has any guy Tim could have drafted been even a decent role player yet? Later picks are usually busts / crappy role players. It's not like he passed on Steph Curry.

Yes, in 2022 guys like Andrew Nembhard, Jaylin Williams, and Jaden Hardy (who just torched us for a brief stint last night) were all picked after Moore, Jr. In this last draft, GG Jackson II was picked after Leonard Miller.

I would never expect Connelly to hit on every one of his later picks, but it's not unreasonable to expect that one of those three picks could have produced a useful rotation player by now. None of them could even crack the top 10 of our lineup, much less the playoff rotation.

Fair analysis as I've not paid much attention to the most recent drafts (except for who the Wolves picked of course and lottery guys). I agree that it's unrealistic to expect to really hit on late 1sts and almost all seconds. But one in five or ten sure. I looked at the last ten picks of the first round a few years ago over a decade (100 picks) and like 10% become decent or better starters. Jaden McDaniels is a rarity.

We got two this year so our odds are decent to get a hit if we don't trade up, then you hope he really likes the guy.

[FNG]

We have a separate prediction thread, but let's use this one to analyze how we think the teams will approach each other. Once again we are facing a team with two true superstars and a supporting cast. I think the Wolves took three out of 4 this season, but if I'm not mistaken, we lost the only game in which both Luka and Kyrie played. I'm not sure the regular season tells us much about how this series will go.

First and foremost, we have to keep Luka and Kyrie from going off. I'm not sure how we are going to defend them, but I suspect we will start with Jaden and Ant. I'm concerned that Luka might overpower Jaden, so I think I would go with this:

Rudy on Gafford
KAT on Washington
Jaden on Kyrie
Ant on Luka
Conley on Jones Jr.

Conley gives up 6 inches to Jones, but I don't think we have to worry too much about a guy who only averaged 8.6 PPG. I think Luka won't be able to bully Ant, and I think Jaden's quickness and length would bother Kyrie. What do others think?

I frankly don't know enough about the Dallas defense to know how they are going to line up against us. I'm looking for some input here.

I'm a Finchie fan, but I've been disappointed with him during this series. The defensive lineup I suggested above was the better call than the way he coached in Games 1-3 (Jaden/Luka, Ant/Kyrie), and he finally came out the right way in Game 4...with a lot of Kyle sprinkled in on Luka. For the first time in this series, we looked like the better defensive team. Terrific defensive effort by Jaden and Ant in this game. Let's keep it up!

If I'm not mistaken, Ant did start the series checking Luka and it did not go well.

May be they are starting to figure things out. One thing I love about Ant is he does absorb things like a sponge and it felt like he was a bit smarter about navigating around screens - when to go over and when to go under.

Q, I think Ant has been on Kyrie right from the start of this series. Remember, Game 1 was the "Don't poke the bear" game? Immediately after Game 7 in Denver, Ant announced "I got Kyrie", and that pretty much sealed the deal that it was going to open that way. And of course we saw what happened...Kyrie went off for 30. I don't know if you watched the past-game stuff, but the TNT guys invited Kyrie on the stage with them, and they asked if he was especially inspired against Ant because of his brash statement. Kyrie handled the question very gracefully, and was quite complimentary of Ant...but you could tell all game he was especially motivated to show up the new kid. Anyway, it took Finchie a while to make the right adjustment, but I think we saw in Game 4 that Jaden is a much better option on Kyrie. Let's hope he has similar success tonight, and that Ant (and SloMo) do a good job on Luka too.